Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday August 3 2026
The Phoenix Mercury visit the Chicago Sky on Monday night in a matchup between teams with nearly identical records, with Phoenix listed as a 1.5-point road favorite and the total set at 179.5. If you are searching for more value on tonight's slate, check out our full WNBA predictions before locking in your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Sky +1.5
- Total Pick: Under 179.5
- Final Score Prediction: Sky 87, Mercury 84
Odds and Line Movement
Phoenix has held mostly firm as the favorite over the past two days, hovering around 1.5 points, while the total has climbed from an opening number of 177.5 to 179.5 as tipoff approaches. Here is the current market followed by the full line movement for both the spread and total.
Current Odds
| Market | Phoenix Mercury | Chicago Sky |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | 1½ (-120) | -1½ (+100) |
| Total | 179.5 (Over -108 / Under -112) | |
Line Movement
| Date | Time | Phoenix | Chicago | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03 | 09:45:00AM | 1½ (-120) | -1½ (+100) | CHI 92%, 60% |
| 08/03 | 08:52:09AM | -1½ (-110) | 1½ (-110) | CHI 94%, 75% |
| 08/03 | 07:25:09AM | -1½ (-105) | 1½ (-115) | CHI 91%, 67% |
| 08/03 | 05:14:19AM | -1½ (-105) | 1½ (-115) | CHI 90%, 67% |
| 08/03 | 04:58:09AM | 1½ (-120) | -1½ (+100) | CHI 88%, 67% |
| 08/03 | 00:27:19AM | 1½ (-115) | -1½ (-105) | CHI 89%, 67% |
| 08/03 | 00:27:19AM | 1½ (-115) | -1½ (-105) | CHI 92%, 67% |
| 08/03 | 00:27:19AM | 1½ (-115) | -1½ (-105) | CHI 94%, 67% |
| 08/02 | 11:06:09PM | 1½ (-120) | -1½ (+100) | CHI 90%, 94% |
| 08/02 | 09:58:59PM | -1½ (+100) | 1½ (-120) | CHI 91%, 91% |
| 08/02 | 09:58:48PM | -1½ (+102) | 1½ (-122) | CHI 89%, 87% |
| 08/02 | 09:49:49PM | -1½ (+105) | 1½ (-125) | CHI 91%, 93% |
| 08/02 | 09:41:09PM | 1½ (-120) | -1½ (+100) | CHI 94%, 92% |
| 08/02 | 09:38:09PM | -1½ (+102) | 1½ (-122) | CHI 93%, 87% |
| 08/02 | 08:05:19PM | 1½ (-115) | -1½ (-105) | CHI 92%, 87% |
| 08/02 | 06:31:19PM | 1½ (-115) | -1½ (-105) | CHI 87%, 90% |
| 08/02 | 05:46:50PM | 1½ (-112) | -1½ (-108) | CHI 93%, 93% |
| 08/02 | 04:07:49PM | 1½ (-108) | -1½ (-112) | CHI 90%, 88% |
| 08/02 | 04:07:49PM | 1½ (-108) | -1½ (-112) | CHI 87%, 88% |
| 08/02 | 01:45:30PM | 1½ (-110) | -1½ (-110) | CHI 89%, 90% |
| 08/02 | 12:18:41PM | 1½ (-110) | -1½ (-110) | CHI 93%, 93% |
| 08/02 | 07:32:30PM | 1½ (-118) | -1½ (-102) | CHI 88%, 87% |
| 08/02 | 07:32:30PM | 1½ (-118) | -1½ (-102) | CHI 88%, 94% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03 | 08:31:09AM | 179½o-108 | 179½u-112 | O93%, O50% |
| 08/03 | 08:02:00AM | 179½o-112 | 179½u-108 | O90%, O67% |
| 08/03 | 05:45:39AM | 180½o-110 | 180½u-110 | O94%, O67% |
| 08/03 | 05:43:49AM | 179½o-115 | 179½u-105 | O92%, O67% |
| 08/03 | 04:58:09AM | 179½o-110 | 179½u-110 | O88%, O67% |
| 08/03 | 03:51:49AM | 178½o-115 | 178½u-105 | O90%, O67% |
| 08/03 | 03:29:29AM | 179½o-105 | 179½u-115 | O90%, O67% |
| 08/02 | 08:05:19PM | 178½o-112 | 178½u-108 | U89%, U93% |
| 08/02 | 06:55:29PM | 178½o-105 | 178½u-115 | U91%, U90% |
| 08/02 | 06:54:09PM | 177½o-110 | 177½u-110 | U89%, U93% |
| 08/02 | 06:29:59PM | 179½o-110 | 179½u-110 | U91%, U89% |
| 08/02 | 05:58:49PM | 179½o-105 | 179½u-115 | U93%, U89% |
| 08/02 | 04:07:49PM | 178½o-112 | 178½u-108 | U94%, U89% |
Mercury vs Sky Key Matchups and Game Preview
Phoenix's Top Scorer
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury with 20.9 points per game, while Alyssa Thomas controls the offense with 8.3 assists and Nateisha Mack contributes a team-high 7.4 rebounds. That trio gives Phoenix a legitimate perimeter and playmaking threat entering Chicago.
Sky's Rebounding and Ball Movement
Chicago holds advantages in rebounding, assists and blocked shots, averaging 32.9 boards, 21.1 assists and 4.9 blocks compared with Phoenix's 31.3 rebounds, 19.6 assists and 3.3 blocks. Sydney Taylor leads Chicago in scoring at 14.7 points per game, while Kamilla Cardoso averages 8.4 rebounds and Natasha Cloud adds 4.6 assists.
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Mercury's Backcourt Question
Phoenix guard Kelsey Plum is a game-time decision because of a lower-leg issue, and her availability would significantly affect the Mercury's perimeter scoring and late-game shot creation. Sami Whitcomb is also questionable with a knee injury, while Ivana Nogic remains out for the season.
Chicago's Recent Surge
Chicago has won two straight, including an 84-83 victory over Las Vegas, and its ability to move the ball and create extra possessions on the glass gives the home team a realistic chance to win outright. The season series is tied 1-1, with Phoenix winning the first meeting 91-83 before Chicago responded with a 77-66 road victory on July 7.
Betting Trends: PHX and CHI
The Mercury enter at 11-19 after a 94-92 loss to New York, while Chicago is 11-18. Phoenix is only 6-9 on the road and may be shorthanded in the backcourt, which has kept public backing split between both sides, with support for Chicago against the spread reaching as high as 94% at times over the weekend.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: PHX and CHI
Chicago will be without Azura Stevens for personal reasons and Skylar Diggins because of a knee injury, removing two important veterans from the rotation. Rickea Jackson is also out for the season, leaving the Sky with fewer scoring options on the wing.
Mercury vs Sky Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Sky +1.5 (+100)
- Total Pick: Under 179.5 (-112)
Phoenix has the best individual scorer in Copper, but the Mercury are only 6-9 on the road and may be shorthanded in the backcourt. The total appears high considering the injuries and the fact that the previous meeting finished with only 143 combined points. Chicago's improving form and home-court advantage make the underdog attractive, while the under offers the stronger total angle.
Final Score Prediction
- Final Score: Sky 87, Mercury 84
How to Wager On Mercury vs Sky
Bettors looking to get down on Mercury vs Sky have several tools available to help shape their picks. Our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup, while the Dimers review and Oddible review offer additional angles on the spread, total and moneyline markets for this matchup between two teams separated by a single game in the standings.
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