Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday August 7 2026
Phoenix travels to Connecticut on Friday night for a matchup between two teams looking to salvage something from their seasons, and this game is worth checking against our full slate of WNBA predictions before locking in a wager. With the Sun banged up and mired in a lengthy losing streak, the Mercury enter with a clear edge in both form and available talent.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Phoenix -6.5
- Total Pick: Under 174.5
- Projected Final Score: Mercury 88, Sun 78
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | -6.5 (-108) | Over 174.5 (-108) |
| Connecticut Sun | +6.5 (-112) | Under 174.5 (-112) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Phoenix | Connecticut | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06 | 00:49:32AM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | - |
| 08/06 | 00:49:32AM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | - |
| 08/06 | 00:49:32AM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | PHO 91%, 87% |
| 08/06 | 00:49:32AM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | PHO 93%, 89% |
| 08/06 | 04:45:35PM | - | - | PHO 88%, 94% |
| 08/06 | 04:48:05PM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | PHO 91%, 92% |
| 08/06 | 04:49:44PM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | PHO 91%, 89% |
| 08/06 | 04:49:44PM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | PHO 90%, 93% |
| 08/06 | 09:44:03PM | -6½ (-102) | 6½ (-118) | PHO 87%, 93% |
| 08/06 | 10:14:03PM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | PHO 91%, 93% |
| 08/06 | 11:33:53PM | -6½ (-102) | 6½ (-118) | PHO 92%, 94% |
| 08/06 | 11:48:43PM | -5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | PHO 87%, 94% |
| 08/06 | 11:51:53PM | -6½ (-108) | 6½ (-112) | PHO 76%, 91% |
| 08/06 | 11:51:53PM | -6½ (-108) | 6½ (-112) | PHO 76%, 91% |
| 08/06 | 11:51:53PM | -6½ (-108) | 6½ (-112) | PHO 90%, 94% |
| 08/07 | 05:03:14AM | -6½ (-108) | 6½ (-112) | PHO 81%, 89% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06 | 04:48:05PM | 171½o-115 | 171½u-105 | - |
| 08/06 | 04:49:44PM | 172½o-108 | 172½u-112 | - |
| 08/06 | 10:54:43PM | 173½o-108 | 173½u-112 | U87%, U91% |
| 08/06 | 11:06:03PM | 174½o-108 | 174½u-112 | U93%, U94% |
| 08/07 | 03:43:36AM | 174½o-115 | 174½u-105 | U92%, U88% |
| 08/07 | 05:03:14AM | 174½o-108 | 174½u-112 | U89%, U89% |
Mercury vs Sun Key Matchups and Game Preview
Mercury Offense Breakdown
Phoenix has been substantially more competitive lately, winning three of its last five, including victories over Chicago, Golden State and Los Angeles. Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury offense at 21.0 points per game while shooting 43.7% from the field and 76.8% at the free-throw line, and Alyssa Thomas continues to impact games in multiple areas with 7.3 rebounds and 8.4 assists per contest. The Mercury average 84.2 points while shooting 44% from the field, giving Phoenix a clear offensive advantage heading into this matchup.
Sun Struggling Offense
Connecticut's leading scorer among the listed players is Leila Lacan at 12.3 points per game, while Olivia Nelson-Ododa contributes 6.1 rebounds. The Sun average just 79.8 points while shooting 43% from the field, and the club has failed to reach 90 points in each of its last five contests, scoring 63 points twice during that stretch. That offensive drought lines up directly with the Under 174.5 lean in this matchup.
Connecticut's Injury Situation
Brittney Griner is out with a knee injury, removing an important interior scoring and defensive presence for Connecticut, while Raegan Beers is unavailable due to a concussion. Maria Kliundikova is also away from the team, leaving the Sun with three notable absences heading into Friday's matchup against a healthier Phoenix roster.
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Phoenix Defensive Notes
Defense has been a problem for both clubs, with Phoenix allowing 87.6 points per game and Connecticut surrendering 87.3, although the Sun produce more blocks and steals. Despite the shared defensive struggles, Phoenix lists only Jovana Nogic as out for a non-injury-related reason, leaving the Mercury with far fewer consequential absences than Connecticut.
Betting Trends: PHO vs CON
- Phoenix is 12-20 overall and 7-10 on the road.
- Connecticut sits at 7-23 with a 4-10 home record and enters on a five-game losing streak.
- The season series is tied 1-1, with Connecticut winning the first meeting 96-83 before Phoenix answered with a 72-63 victory two days later.
- Public tickets have consistently favored Phoenix on the spread throughout the line movement window, ranging from 76% to 93% of bets on the Mercury.
- The total has drawn strong Under support late in the line movement window, with 87% to 94% of tickets backing the Under as the number climbed from 171.5 to 174.5.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: PHO vs CON
- Phoenix: Jovana Nogic is out for a non-injury-related reason, leaving the Mercury with minimal consequential absences.
- Connecticut: Brittney Griner is out with a knee injury, Raegan Beers is unavailable due to a concussion, and Maria Kliundikova is away from the team.
- Phoenix averages 84.2 points on 44% shooting compared with Connecticut's 79.8 points on 43% shooting, while Phoenix allows 87.6 points per game to Connecticut's 87.3.
Mercury vs Sun Side and Over/Under Picks
- Best Bet: Phoenix -6.5
- Total Play: Under 174.5
- Value Angle: Monitor late spread movement, as the number has bounced between -5.5 and -6.5 throughout the window
Connecticut's personnel losses and prolonged losing streak make Phoenix -6.5 the preferred side, especially with the Sun failing to reach 90 points in each of their last five contests and scoring 63 twice during that stretch. On the total, both teams carry weak defensive averages, but Connecticut may struggle to contribute enough scoring to push this game into the mid-170s, supporting the Under 174.5 lean.
Final Score Prediction
- Projected Score: Mercury 88, Sun 78
- Winning Margin: Ten points, clearing the -6.5 spread for Phoenix
- Total Result: Under 174.5
How to Wager On Mercury vs Sun
For this Mercury vs Sun matchup, the spread is the more attractive market given Connecticut's injury losses at Griner and Beers, and Phoenix should control the game through Copper's scoring and Thomas' all-around play. The total is worth tracking closely as well, since the number has climbed from 171.5 to 174.5 throughout the line movement window, making an early Under 174.5 bet the more valuable entry point.
Bettors looking to expand their card around this game can also check our AI picks resource, along with our Dimers review and Oddible review, both of which can help cross-check projections against the numbers laid out here for Mercury vs Sun.
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