Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 19 2026
The Phoenix Mercury visit the Dallas Wings on Saturday afternoon at College Park Center, and this matchup offers plenty to unpack for anyone browsing WNBA picks this weekend. Dallas enters at 25-16 riding a five-game winning streak, while Phoenix sits at 15-26 after winning two straight of its own. For more matchups this week, check out our full slate of WNBA predictions before placing a wager.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Dallas Wings -8.5 (-105)
- Total Pick: Under 173.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Wings 91, Mercury 80
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Market | Line | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (Phoenix / Dallas) | PHX +8.5 (-115) / DAL -8.5 (-105) | N/A |
| Total (Over / Under) | Over 173.5 (-110) / Under 173.5 (-110) | N/A |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Phoenix | Dallas | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | +8.5 (-115) | -8.5 (-105) | N/A |
| 09/18 | +7.5 (-105) | -7.5 (-115) | N/A |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public Betting ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/18 | 173.5 (-110) | 173.5 (-110) | N/A |
Mercury vs Wings Key Matchups and Game Preview
Wings Riding Five-Game Winning Streak
Dallas has been the stronger team on both ends, averaging 89.2 points per game while allowing 85.1, compared with Phoenix's 84.4 points scored and 87.3 allowed. The Wings also shoot 46.8 percent from the field, average 34.6 rebounds and 22.0 assists, while Phoenix is at 44.6 percent, 31.5 rebounds and 20.2 assists. That current form, paired with a five-game winning streak, gives Dallas the stronger overall profile heading into this matchup.
Dallas's Balanced Attack Fueled by Bueckers
Paige Bueckers leads Dallas at 20.4 points per game while shooting 50.8 percent from the floor and adds 5.8 assists, and Jessica Shepard has been outstanding on the glass at 11.1 rebounds per game. Dallas also won the first meeting between these two teams 85-70 on June 11, holding Phoenix well below its season scoring average in the process.
PHX Awaits Word on Copper's Status
Phoenix counters with Kahleah Copper at 21.3 points per game, but Copper missed Thursday's win over Portland and is dealing with an injury, making her status important before betting this game. Her availability figures to play a major role in how competitive Phoenix can be in this matchup.
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Mercury Lean on Thomas to Create Offense
Alyssa Thomas remains Phoenix's best all-around playmaker at 7.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per contest. Phoenix's ability to keep this game close depends heavily on Copper's availability and Thomas controlling the tempo throughout.
Wings Defense Has Given Mercury Trouble
Dallas has already shown it can limit the Mercury offensively, holding Phoenix to just 70 points in their first meeting this season. Even with some absences of its own, Dallas has the better offensive efficiency, rebounding numbers and defensive profile entering this rematch.
Betting Trends: PHX vs DAL
- Dallas enters at 25-16 and riding a five-game winning streak, while Phoenix is 15-26 after winning two straight.
- Dallas averages 89.2 points per game while allowing 85.1, compared with Phoenix's 84.4 points scored and 87.3 allowed.
- The Wings shoot 46.8 percent from the field with 34.6 rebounds and 22.0 assists per game, compared with Phoenix's 44.6 percent shooting, 31.5 rebounds and 20.2 assists.
- Dallas won the first meeting between these teams 85-70 on June 11, holding Phoenix below its season scoring average.
- The spread opened at Dallas -7.5 (-115) before moving to Dallas -8.5 (-105).
Key Injuries and Things To Know: PHX and DAL
- Phoenix is already without Kelsey Plum for the season.
- Kahleah Copper missed Thursday's win over Portland and is dealing with an injury that makes her status important before betting this game.
- Dallas is missing Azzi Fudd and could also be without Alanna Smith.
- Odyssey Sims left Thursday's 97-77 win over Los Angeles with a knee issue, further thinning the Wings' backcourt depth.
- Alyssa Thomas continues to be Phoenix's most complete all-around contributor with 7.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game.
Mercury vs Wings Side and Over/Under Picks
- Spread: Dallas Wings -8.5 (-105)
- Total: Under 173.5 (-110)
Dallas has the better offensive efficiency, rebounding numbers and defensive profile, and its recent five-game winning streak gives it the stronger current form heading into this rematch. Phoenix's chances of keeping this close depend heavily on Kahleah Copper's availability and Alyssa Thomas controlling the tempo, but Dallas has already shown this season that it can limit the Mercury offensively, which supports the Under given how thin the guard rotations are on both sides.
Final Score Prediction
- Dallas Wings: 91
- Phoenix Mercury: 80
Expect Dallas to lean on its balanced attack led by Paige Bueckers and Jessica Shepard's rebounding to control this game, while Phoenix's outcome hinges on Kahleah Copper's health and Alyssa Thomas doing enough to keep the Mercury within striking distance.
How to Wager On Mercury vs Wings
Bettors looking to shop for the best number on Mercury vs Wings have several tools available before placing a wager. Comparing the spread and total across multiple sportsbooks can help secure better value than settling for a single closing line, especially with injury news still developing on both sides. For those who want an extra layer of analysis before betting this matchup, our AI picks breakdown is a useful starting point. Bettors can also dig deeper with our Dimers review and Oddible review to see how different models project this matchup before locking in a side, total, or player prop.
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