Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Saturday May 9 2026
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The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces will open the season on Saturday, May 9, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 PM, and the game will be shown on ABC and Disney+. Las Vegas enters as the favorite, with the Aces listed at -8.5 and the Mercury at +8.5. The moneyline has Las Vegas at -345 and Phoenix at +275, while the total is set at 166.5 points. Find all the winning picks with our free WNBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
Phoenix enters this matchup after recently winning over Japan 86-60 in preseason action, while Las Vegas recently lost to Dallas 101-84. The Mercury controlled their game early, taking a 29-13 lead after the first quarter and holding a 52-28 edge by halftime before finishing off a comfortable 26-point win. Las Vegas had a much tougher result, falling behind Dallas 35-20 after the opening quarter and never fully recovering despite scoring 20 or more points in every quarter.
Phoenix had several efficient contributors in its win. Kahleah Copper led the Mercury with 17 points while shooting 6-for-11 from the field and 3-for-6 from three-point range. Natasha Mack added 12 points and nine rebounds on 5-for-6 shooting, while Sami Whitcomb also scored 12 points and made three of her five attempts from beyond the arc. Alyssa Thomas added eight points, six rebounds, and nine assists, giving Phoenix strong all-around production in the victory.
Las Vegas was led by A’ja Wilson, who finished with 18 points and five rebounds in the loss to Dallas. Jackie Young added 16 points on 7-for-13 shooting, while Chelsea Gray scored 10 points and handed out five assists. NaLyssa Smith contributed nine points and four rebounds, and Jewell Loyd added nine points with six rebounds off the bench. The Aces shot 47 percent from the field but went just 5-for-19 from three-point range and 23-for-38 at the free throw line.
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Phoenix Brings Preseason Confidence Into Las Vegas
Phoenix comes into the season opener with a 0-0 record and a 0-0 away mark. The Mercury recently won over Japan 86-60 and recently won over Chicago 108-104, giving them two straight preseason victories entering this matchup. Before that, Phoenix recently lost to Las Vegas three times, falling 97-86, 90-88, and 91-78.
The Mercury showed strong balance in their most recent game, finishing with 86 points while shooting 45 percent from the field. Phoenix also made 10 three-pointers, shot 90 percent from the free throw line, grabbed 43 rebounds, and finished with 22 assists. The Mercury also forced eight steals and blocked three shots while holding Japan to 60 points.
The biggest strength for Phoenix from the provided data is its rebounding and offensive balance. The Mercury had 43 rebounds and multiple scoring options in the win over Japan. However, turnovers are also worth watching, as Phoenix committed 19 in that game. Against a Las Vegas team favored at home, keeping the ball cleaner could be important.
Las Vegas Looks to Respond at Home
Las Vegas enters the regular season opener with a 0-0 record and a 0-0 home mark. The Aces recently lost to Dallas 101-84, but they recently won over Japan 94-78 before that. Las Vegas also recently won over Phoenix three straight times, including 97-86, 90-88, and 91-78 results.
The Aces scored 84 points in their most recent game while shooting 47 percent from the field. Las Vegas finished with 25 rebounds, 14 assists, 16 turnovers, nine steals, and three blocks. The Aces struggled from three-point range at 26 percent and also shot 61 percent from the free throw line.
The clear strength for Las Vegas is the recent head-to-head success against Phoenix. The Aces have recently won over the Mercury in three straight listed matchups,. The concern from the latest box score is efficiency beyond the arc and at the free throw line, where Las Vegas did not shoot well in the loss to Dallas.
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick
- Las Vegas Aces -8.5
Las Vegas is laying a sizeable number, but the Aces have the stronger matchup outlook based on the provided data. The Aces have recently won over Phoenix in three straight listed meetings. Phoenix does enter with momentum after two preseason wins, but Las Vegas is at home and has repeatedly had the better of this matchup recently. The pick is Las Vegas to cover the spread.
Total Pick
- Over 166.5
The total is set at 166.5, and the lean is toward the over. Phoenix scored 86 and 108 points in its last two listed games, while Las Vegas scored 84 and 94 in its last two. Both teams have shown enough scoring in the recent results to support a higher-scoring outcome, especially with Phoenix coming off a strong shooting performance and Las Vegas still reaching 84 points despite recently losing to Dallas.
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 91 – Phoenix Mercury 82
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