Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday July 13 2026
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The Phoenix Mercury travel to Minnesota on Monday night to take on the Lynx in a Western Conference matchup where the number has moved heavily in one direction, with Minnesota now laying 13.5 points and the total sitting at 169.5 after opening a full point higher. For more games on tonight's board, check out our full WNBA predictions page, but this preview is focused entirely on Mercury vs Lynx and what the line movement is signaling.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Minnesota Lynx -13.5
- Total Pick: Under 169.5
- Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 90, Phoenix 73
Odds and Line Movement
Minnesota has been bet up steadily throughout the week, moving from an opening number near 11.5 up to 13.5, while the total has drifted down from 170.5 to its current mark of 169.5. Below is the full progression for both markets along with the current line.
Current Odds
| Market | Phoenix Mercury | Minnesota Lynx | Public Betting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 (-118) | -13.5 (-104) | PHO 91% bets, 36% money |
| Total | 169.5 Over (-114) | 169.5 Under (-106) | Over 89% bets, money N/A |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Phoenix | Minnesota | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/13 | 00:58:55AM | 13.5 -118 | -13.5 -104 | PHO 91%, 36% |
| 07/13 | 00:58:55AM | 13.5 -118 | -13.5 -104 | PHO 89%, 37% |
| 07/13 | 00:58:55AM | 13.5 -118 | -13.5 -104 | PHO 87%, 37% |
| 07/13 | 00:58:55AM | 13.5 -118 | -13.5 -104 | PHO 89%, 37% |
| 07/12 | 10:39:21PM | 13.5 -115 | -13.5 -105 | PHO 88%, 43% |
| 07/12 | 11:43:50AM | 13.5 -114 | -13.5 -106 | PHO 92% |
| 07/12 | 11:43:50AM | 13.5 -114 | -13.5 -106 | PHO 91%, 93% |
| 07/12 | 11:43:50AM | 13.5 -114 | -13.5 -106 | MIN 89%, 91% |
| 07/12 | 11:13:28AM | 13.5 -110 | -13.5 -110 | MIN 88%, 88% |
| 07/12 | 11:13:28AM | 13.5 -110 | -13.5 -110 | MIN 90%, 94% |
| 07/12 | 10:05:23AM | 12.5 -110 | -12.5 -110 | MIN 91%, 93% |
| 07/12 | 09:47:43AM | 11.5 -108 | -11.5 -112 | MIN 87%, 87% |
| 07/12 | 00:58:40AM | 11.5 -114 | -11.5 -106 | MIN 94%, 90% |
| 07/12 | 00:58:40AM | 11.5 -114 | -11.5 -106 | MIN 92%, 91% |
| 07/12 | 00:58:40AM | 11.5 -114 | -11.5 -106 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/13 | 07:42:04AM | 169.5 -114 | 169.5 -106 | O 89%, N/A |
| 07/12 | 09:47:43AM | 169.5 -108 | 169.5 -112 | - |
| 07/12 | 00:58:40AM | 169.5 -112 | 169.5 -108 | - |
Mercury vs Lynx Key Matchups and Game Preview
Mercury Enter On A Difficult Stretch
Phoenix comes into this game at 8-16 overall and 5-8 on the road, having lost three straight games including a lopsided 106-58 defeat at Las Vegas on Saturday. The Mercury have scored 89 points or fewer in five consecutive games and have averaged just 72.0 points during that stretch. Kahleah Copper remains the focal point of the offense at 20.3 points per game, while Alyssa Thomas adds 7.9 assists per contest, but both will need big performances to keep this one competitive.
Lynx Offense Faces Little Resistance
Minnesota is 17-6 overall and 7-4 at home, riding a two-game winning streak after victories over Connecticut and New York. The Lynx average 90.0 points per game while allowing only 80.9, and they also hold a shooting edge at 48% compared to Phoenix's 43%. Olivia Miles leads Minnesota with 18.7 points per game on 49.8% shooting, and Natasha Howard adds 8.1 rebounds as a steady interior presence.
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Rebounding Gap Looms Large
Minnesota holds advantages in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals, and the Lynx average a league-best 36.5 boards per game. That gap becomes even more significant with Phoenix's leading rebounder, Natasha Mack, sidelined by a foot injury, which removes 8.3 rebounds per game from the Mercury's frontcourt rotation.
History Favors Minnesota
The two teams have already met twice this season, with Minnesota winning both matchups: an 88-84 decision on May 12 and a dominant 111-77 result in the June 1 rematch. Even without Napheesa Collier, who remains out with an ankle injury, the Lynx have shown they can control this series comfortably.
Betting Trends: PHO vs MIN
- Phoenix has lost three straight games and scored 89 points or fewer in five consecutive contests.
- Minnesota has won two straight games and is 7-4 at home this season.
- The spread has moved from Minnesota -11.5 up to Minnesota -13.5 over the course of the week.
- The total has dropped from an opening line of 170.5 down to 169.5.
- Minnesota has already beaten Phoenix twice this season, most recently by 34 points on June 1.
- Public betting is heavily on Phoenix against the spread at 91% of bets, while the total is seeing 89% of bets on the Over.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: PHO vs MIN
- Natasha Mack (Phoenix) is out with a foot injury, removing 8.3 rebounds per game from the Mercury.
- Sami Whitcomb (Phoenix) is a game-time decision with a knee issue, which could thin Phoenix's backcourt rotation.
- Napheesa Collier (Minnesota) remains out with an ankle injury.
- Emma Cechova (Minnesota) is unavailable with a knee issue.
Mercury vs Lynx Side and Over/Under Picks
Lynx Against the Spread
Minnesota's rebounding, shooting and defensive efficiency advantages are significant, and Phoenix's offensive collapse over the last five games makes covering a large number difficult for the Mercury. The pick here is Minnesota Lynx -13.5.
Mercury Total Trends
With Phoenix struggling to score consistently and Minnesota holding one of the league's most complete defensive profiles, the total has room to stay under the number even with the line dropping a full point from its open. The pick here is Under 169.5.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx -13.5
- Total: Under 169.5
Final Score Prediction
Minnesota should control the glass, generate efficient shots and gradually pull away from a Phoenix team dealing with a rebounding void and a quick turnaround after Saturday's blowout loss. Expect the Lynx to build a comfortable lead and cruise from there.
- Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 90, Phoenix 73
How to Wager On Mercury vs Lynx
For bettors looking at Mercury vs Lynx tonight, the key numbers to track are Minnesota's push toward -13.5 on the spread and the total's slide down to 169.5 from its 170.5 opener. With Phoenix dealing with a rebounding void and Minnesota missing Napheesa Collier, line shopping and timing could matter more than usual. If you want additional tools to help shape your betting approach, check out our AI picks review, our Dimers review, or our Oddible review for more ways to approach tonight's slate.
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