Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction for Friday May 29 2026
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The Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty meet on Friday, May 29, 2026, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET with coverage airing on ION and WNBA League Pass. New York enters the matchup as a 6.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 170.5 points. The Liberty are listed at -265 on the moneyline while the Mercury are +215 underdogs. This matchup comes just two days after these teams met in Brooklyn, where New York earned an 84-74 victory. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more action around the league.
Previous Game Recap & Box Score
These teams last met on May 27, and New York controlled much of the second half on the way to an 84-74 win at home. Phoenix stayed competitive early, but the Liberty gradually created separation behind more efficient offense and balanced team play. The Mercury struggled to keep pace offensively late in the game, continuing a difficult stretch that has now reached four consecutive losses. New York snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory and will look to build momentum with another strong performance at Barclays Center.
Mercury Trying to Stop the Slide
Phoenix enters this game with a 2-6 overall record and a 1-3 mark on the road. The Mercury are currently riding a four-game losing streak after recently losing to New York, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Toronto. Their last win came on May 15 when they defeated Chicago 91-83. During this recent stretch, Phoenix has remained competitive in several games, including a narrow 82-80 loss at Atlanta, but the team has struggled to close out games consistently.
The Mercury are averaging 85.6 points per game while allowing 86.6 points per contest. Phoenix is shooting 43% from the field and averaging 33.1 rebounds and 18.1 assists per game. Defensively, the Mercury are producing 7.4 steals and 4.0 blocks per contest. Those numbers show a team capable of generating defensive activity, but one that has had trouble slowing opponents over four quarters.
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One clear weakness for Phoenix has been its defensive consistency. Allowing 86.6 points per game has made it difficult for the Mercury to overcome offensive dry spells, especially against stronger offensive teams. The recent loss to New York highlighted that issue again as the Liberty were able to steadily pull away in the second half.
Liberty Looking to Build Momentum at Home
New York comes into this matchup with a 4-4 overall record and a 2-3 record at home. The Liberty recently defeated Phoenix 84-74 after suffering three straight losses to Portland, Dallas, and Golden State. Before that losing streak, New York earned an impressive 100-82 road victory over Portland. The Liberty have shown the ability to score at a high level, but consistency has been an issue throughout the early portion of the season.
The Liberty are averaging 88.0 points per game while allowing 85.1 points per contest. New York is shooting 46% from the field and averaging 22.1 assists per game, which is one of the stronger playmaking numbers in this matchup. The Liberty also average 33.0 rebounds, 6.6 steals, and 3.4 blocks per contest. Their offensive efficiency has been a major reason they remain competitive even during difficult stretches.
The biggest strength for New York entering this game is its offense. The Liberty hold an advantage over Phoenix in scoring average, field goal percentage, and assists per game. Their ability to move the ball and generate efficient offense helped produce the recent 84-point performance against Phoenix, and that offensive balance could once again be the difference here.
Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction
Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Pick
- Pick: New York Liberty -6.5
New York already showed earlier this week that it matches up well against Phoenix, winning by 10 points at home. The Liberty hold advantages in scoring, field goal percentage, and assists per game, and they have been more efficient offensively throughout the season. Phoenix has now dropped four straight games and is allowing 86.6 points per game overall. I think New York’s offensive efficiency and recent success in this matchup make the Liberty the stronger side again at home.
Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Total Pick
- Pick: Over 170.5
I’m looking toward the over in this matchup because both teams have consistently been involved in higher-scoring games recently. Phoenix is averaging 85.6 points per game while allowing 86.6, and New York is putting up 88.0 points per contest. The first meeting between these teams reached 158 points despite Phoenix struggling offensively late, and both teams have multiple recent games finishing well into the 170s and 180s. I think the pace and offensive production create solid value on the over.
Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 90 – Phoenix Mercury 81
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