Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 17 2026
The Mercury vs Fire matchup in Portland features two shorthanded rosters closing out the regular season, with Phoenix looking to build on a blowout win over Toronto. Bettors looking for more value across the day's slate can check our WNBA predictions hub before tipoff.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Mercury -2.5
- Total Pick: Under 172.5
- Projected Final Score: Mercury 84, Fire 80
Odds and Line Movement
Phoenix has moved between -1.5 and -4.5 throughout the betting window before settling into its current number, with Portland backers showing up heavily across nearly every tracked entry. The total has drifted between 172.5 and 176.5, with the under drawing consistent public support in recent sessions. Below is the current market snapshot along with every tracked line movement entry.
Current Odds
| Market | Phoenix | Portland |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-115) | +2.5 (-105) |
| Total | 172.5 (Over -105 / Under -115) | |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Phoenix | Portland | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16 | -2.5 (-115) | +2.5 (-105) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/16 | -3.5 (-115) | +3.5 (-105) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/16 | -4.5 (-105) | +4.5 (-115) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/16 | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/16 | +1.5 (-120) | -1.5 (+100) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/16 | -1.5 (+100) | +1.5 (-120) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/16 | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-115) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/15 | -1.5 (-102) | +1.5 (-118) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/14 | -1.5 (-108) | +1.5 (-112) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/13 | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/13 | -1.5 (-102) | +1.5 (-118) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/09 | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
| 09/09 | -2.5 (-102) | +2.5 (-118) | POR 100%, POR 100% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16 | 172.5 (-105) | 172.5 (-115) | UN 86%, UN 89% |
| 09/16 | 172.5 (-110) | 172.5 (-110) | UN 86%, UN 89% |
| 09/16 | 175.5 (-112) | 175.5 (-108) | UN 86%, UN 88% |
| 09/15 | 176.5 (-105) | 176.5 (-115) | UN 86%, UN 89% |
| 09/15 | 175.5 (-115) | 175.5 (-105) | UN 86%, UN 89% |
| 09/09 | 176.5 (-108) | 176.5 (-112) | UN 54%, UN 67% |
| 09/07 | 176.5 (-105) | 176.5 (-115) | UN 54%, UN 67% |
| 09/06 | 175.5 (-115) | 175.5 (-105) | UN 54%, UN 67% |
| 09/06 | 176.5 (-110) | 176.5 (-110) | UN 54%, UN 67% |
| 09/02 | 176.5 (-115) | 176.5 (-105) | UN 54%, UN 67% |
Mercury vs Fire: Key Matchups and Game Preview
Portland enters this matchup at 16-24 while Phoenix is 14-26, with the season series tied 1-1 after Phoenix won 78-72 in Portland on June 5 before the Fire answered with an 88-85 victory in Phoenix on August 16. Portland has been the slightly better offensive team overall, averaging 86.6 points per game compared with Phoenix's 84.2, while shooting 45% from the field to the Mercury's 44%. Phoenix owns the better defensive average, allowing 87.3 points per game compared with Portland's 91.1, and the Mercury also hold a 31.6-30.3 rebounding advantage.
Portland has lost four of its last five games, while Phoenix snapped a four-game skid with a 101-69 win over Toronto in its most recent contest.
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Phoenix's Path Without Copper
Alyssa Thomas remains the centerpiece for Phoenix, averaging 7.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, while Kahleah Copper has led the team in scoring at 21.3 points per game. Phoenix is also dealing with significant absences, as Copper is out with an ankle injury and Kelsey Plum remains sidelined, taking away two major scoring threats. With Leite unavailable and Portland missing several other rotation pieces, Phoenix has the clearer path to controlling the game even without Copper, particularly through Thomas' rebounding and playmaking.
Portland's Thin Rotation
Portland has leaned heavily on Carla Leite, who is averaging 15.9 points and 6.3 assists, but she is out Thursday for rest, which is a major hit to the Fire's ball-handling and shot creation. Portland's injury situation is even more severe, with Megan DiLeo out because of a finger injury, Bridget Carleton out with an ankle injury and Teja Oblak unavailable with a knee issue, leaving the Fire with a considerably thinner rotation.
PHX vs POR Betting Trends
Mercury Trends
- Snapped a four-game skid with a 101-69 win over Toronto
- 84.2 points per game while allowing 87.3
- 44% shooting from the field with a 31.6 rebounding average
- 1-1 in the season series against Portland
Fire Trends
- Lost four of the last five games
- 86.6 points per game while allowing 91.1
- 45% shooting from the field, though trailing in rebounding
- Won the second meeting against Phoenix 88-85
PHX and POR Key Injuries and Things To Know
Mercury Injuries
- Kahleah Copper - out with an ankle injury
- Kelsey Plum - sidelined
Fire Injuries
- Carla Leite - out for rest
- Megan DiLeo - out with a finger injury
- Bridget Carleton - out with an ankle injury
- Teja Oblak - unavailable with a knee issue
Mercury vs Fire Side and Over/Under Picks
Phoenix is favored by 2.5 points with the total at 172.5. With Leite unavailable and Portland missing several other rotation pieces, Phoenix has the clearer path to controlling the game even without Copper, particularly through Thomas' rebounding and playmaking. The absences on both sides also make the under appealing because each team is missing important offensive personnel.
- Spread Pick: Mercury -2.5
- Total Pick: Under 172.5
Mercury vs Fire Final Score Prediction
- Phoenix Mercury: 84
- Portland Fire: 80
Thomas' rebounding and playmaking should be enough to give Phoenix control even without Copper, while Portland's depleted rotation limits the Fire's ability to keep pace late.
How to Wager On Mercury vs Fire
Bettors have a few clear angles to build around in this matchup: Phoenix -2.5, the total under 172.5, or pairing both given the injury situations on both sides. For more tools before locking in a wager, our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup and others on the board. You can also check our Dimers review and our Oddible review for a closer look at how each platform's numbers compare with the current market on Mercury vs Fire.
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