Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday July 28 2026
Tuesday night's WNBA picks slate features the Portland Fire traveling to face the Las Vegas Aces at 10:00 p.m. ET, with Las Vegas looking to complete a three-game season sweep and rebound from a narrow loss in its most recent outing. The Aces enter at 18-8 overall and 7-5 at home, while Portland is 11-16 overall and 5-9 on the road. With Las Vegas favored by 11.5 points and the total set at 179.5, this matchup offers plenty to unpack before tip-off.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Aces -11.5
- Total Pick: Under 179.5
- Projected Final Score: Aces 96, Fire 79
Odds and Line Movement
Las Vegas is currently favored by 11.5 points, and the Aces are priced at -620 on the moneyline. The total has moved upward from 174.5 to 179.5 over the last several days. Below is a breakdown of how the spread, total and public betting percentages have moved since 07/23.
Current Odds
| Date | Time | Portland | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/28 | 09:58:40AM | 11½-104 | -11½-116 | LV 89%, 43% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Portland | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/28 | 09:58:40AM | 11½-104 | -11½-116 | LV 89%, 43% |
| 07/28 | 08:18:11AM | 11½-104 | -11½-116 | LV 89%, 43% |
| 07/28 | 07:48:00AM | 11½-112 | -11½-108 | LV 89%, 46% |
| 07/28 | 07:48:00AM | 11½-112 | -11½-108 | LV 89%, 46% |
| 07/28 | 04:02:10AM | 10½-103 | -10½-117 | POR 74%, 58% |
| 07/27 | 10:53:54PM | 10½-103 | -10½-117 | POR 66%, 55% |
| 07/27 | 10:53:54PM | 10½-103 | -10½-117 | POR 71%, 60% |
| 07/27 | 10:41:24PM | 10½-103 | -10½-117 | POR 83%, 67% |
| 07/27 | 08:39:34PM | 11½-116 | -11½-104 | POR 83%, 67% |
| 07/27 | 04:15:20PM | 11½-116 | -11½-104 | POR 83%, 67% |
| 07/27 | 10:25:16AM | 11½-116 | -11½-104 | POR 90%, 75% |
| 07/27 | 10:25:16AM | 11½-116 | -11½-104 | POR 90%, 75% |
| 07/26 | 08:18:48PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 86%, 71% |
| 07/26 | 08:18:48PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 92%, 83% |
| 07/26 | 08:18:48PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 90%, 83% |
| 07/26 | 08:18:48PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 92%, 80% |
| 07/26 | 08:18:48PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 92%, 75% |
| 07/26 | 12:40:59PM | 11½-108 | -11½-112 | POR 95%, 67% |
| 07/26 | 12:40:59PM | 11½-108 | -11½-112 | LV 58%, 50% |
| 07/26 | 12:40:59PM | 11½-108 | -11½-112 | LV 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 12:38:35PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | LV 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 12:38:35PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | LV 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 12:38:35PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | LV 58%, 50% |
| 07/24 | 12:38:35PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 90%, 93% |
| 07/24 | 12:38:35PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 94%, 92% |
| 07/24 | 12:38:35PM | 11½-110 | -11½-110 | POR 88%, 88% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/28 | 09:58:40AM | 179½o-110 | 179½u-110 | O90%, O61% |
| 07/28 | 08:18:11AM | 179½o-105 | 179½u-115 | O90%, O61% |
| 07/27 | 10:53:54PM | 178½o-115 | 178½u-105 | O91%, O55% |
| 07/27 | 08:39:34PM | 179½o-105 | 179½u-116 | O91%, O63% |
| 07/27 | 08:38:54PM | 178½o-116 | 178½u-105 | O91%, O63% |
| 07/27 | 06:44:41PM | 179½o-105 | 179½u-116 | O91%, O63% |
| 07/27 | 06:40:51PM | 178½o-116 | 178½u-104 | O91%, O63% |
| 07/27 | 04:15:20PM | 179½o-105 | 179½u-116 | O91%, O63% |
| 07/27 | 02:00:29PM | 178½o-105 | 178½u-115 | O90%, O57% |
| 07/26 | 08:18:48PM | 177½o-110 | 177½u-110 | O92%, O75% |
| 07/26 | 12:40:59PM | 177½o-108 | 177½u-112 | O91%, O94% |
| 07/24 | 12:38:35PM | 177½o-106 | 177½u-114 | O88%, O93% |
| 07/24 | 02:45:25AM | 176½o-116 | 176½u-104 | O93%, O89% |
| 07/23 | 10:18:55PM | 176½o-108 | 176½u-112 | O100%, O100% |
Fire vs Aces Key Matchups and Game Preview
Portland's Recent Slide
Portland has gone 2-3 over its last five games, earning wins over Atlanta and Washington but losing to Connecticut, Minnesota and Dallas. The Fire fell 101-97 to the Wings in their latest contest, marking their second consecutive defeat.
Las Vegas's Recent Form
Las Vegas is 3-2 over its last five, with victories over Portland, Phoenix and Toronto offset by losses to Indiana and Washington. The Aces were edged 100-99 by the Mystics on July 22 after routing Toronto 109-83 in their previous game.
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Aces Have Swept the Series
Las Vegas has won both meetings with Portland this season, taking the first matchup 105-89 before earning an 88-80 victory on July 9.
Las Vegas's Statistical Advantages
The Aces hold meaningful statistical advantages, averaging 91.0 points while allowing 86.3 per game, compared with Portland's 85.3 points scored and 90.6 surrendered. Las Vegas also shoots 49% from the field, averages 34.3 rebounds, 22.5 assists and 5.1 blocks, while Portland shoots 45%, collects only 29.3 rebounds and averages 20.5 assists.
A'ja Wilson's Dominance
A'ja Wilson is the clear centerpiece of the matchup, leading the Aces with 26.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while shooting 53.3% from the field. Chelsea Gray adds a team-high 7.3 assists and should have opportunities to control the pace against Portland's vulnerable defense.
Fire's Leading Contributors
Carla Leite leads the Fire with 15.3 points and 6.0 assists, while Emily Engstler averages a team-best 5.3 rebounds.
Portland's Injury Report
Portland remains without Sarah Ashlee Barker and Sania Feagin because of season-ending knee injuries, leaving the Fire with less backcourt and frontcourt depth.
Aces Roster Absences
Las Vegas is missing Cheyenne Parker-Tyus with a concussion and Kierstan Bell with a leg injury, while Janiah Barker remains out for the season. Those absences reduce the Aces' depth, but their core rotation remains considerably stronger.
Betting Trends: POR and LV
The spread has climbed over the last several days, opening at Las Vegas -10.5 on 07/24 before moving to -11.5 by 07/26 and holding there through Tuesday morning, with some fluctuation down to -10.5 briefly on 07/27. Public betting has consistently favored Las Vegas at the sportsbook level, with the Aces drawing between 58% and 89% of money across nearly every update since 07/24, even as ticket counts have leaned toward Portland at various points. As of the most recent 07/28 update at 09:58:40AM, the market shows 89% of money and 43% of bets on Las Vegas. On the total, the number has climbed from 176.5 on 07/23 to 179.5 by Tuesday morning, with the public consistently leaning Over across nearly every update.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: POR and LV
- Sarah Ashlee Barker is out for Portland with a season-ending knee injury.
- Sania Feagin is also out for the Fire with a season-ending knee injury.
- Cheyenne Parker-Tyus is out for Las Vegas with a concussion.
- Kierstan Bell is out for the Aces with a leg injury.
- Janiah Barker remains out for the season for Las Vegas.
Fire vs Aces Side and Over/Under Picks
Las Vegas has already beaten Portland twice, possesses major advantages in shooting and rebounding, and should create separation against a Fire team allowing more than 90 points per game. The rising total is less appealing because Portland may struggle to score enough to support an over.
- Side Pick: Aces -11.5
- Total Pick: Under 179.5
Final Score Prediction
- Las Vegas Aces 96, Portland Fire 79
How to Wager On Fire vs Aces
Bettors weighing Las Vegas's spread and the Under in this matchup have a few resources to compare projections before placing a wager. For a data-driven cross-check on Wilson's impact and Portland's defensive vulnerabilities, exploring AI picks can help validate whether the Aces' advantage holds up. Bettors can also review the Dimers review for another projection angle on Fire vs Aces, or check the Oddible review for an additional resource to weigh against Las Vegas's spread and the Under before locking in a final decision.
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