Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces WNBA Playoffs First Round Series 2 Game 1 Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 27 2026
Two of the most explosive offenses in the WNBA meet on September 27 at 4:00 PM ET, when the Indiana Fever visit the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena to open their best-of-three first-round playoff series. Las Vegas is a 3.5-point favorite and the total sits at 182.5. On the surface, the Aces look like the obvious side. They are the No. 3 seed at 31-13 and closed the regular season on a seven-game winning streak. But Indiana won the season series 2-1, including two lopsided wins in Las Vegas. This Fever vs Aces prediction goes through the numbers behind the spread, the steady movement in the total, and the Aliyah Boston injury question that could decide Game 1. For more playoff breakdowns, see our full collection of WNBA predictions.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction for Fever vs Aces
- Spread Pick: Indiana Fever +3.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Over 182.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Las Vegas Aces 94, Indiana Fever 93
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana Fever | +3.5 (-115) | Over 182.5 (-110) |
| Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 (-105) | Under 182.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Indiana | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/25 | +3.5 (-115) | -3.5 (-105) | IND 100%, IND 50% |
| 09/25 | +2.5 (-102) | -2.5 (-118) | IND 97%, IND 50% |
| 09/25 | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) | IND 100%, IND 100% |
| 09/25 | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-115) | IND 100%, IND 100% |
| 09/25 | +3.5 (-115) | -3.5 (-105) | IND 100%, IND 100% |
| 09/25 | +3.5 (-108) | -3.5 (-112) | IND 100%, IND 100% |
| 09/25 | +4.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-115) | - |
This spread has been active. It opened with Indiana +4.5 at -105 and Las Vegas -4.5 at -115. Early money came in hard on the Fever, and the number dropped a full point to +3.5. For a stretch, Indiana was drawing 100% of both the money and the tickets. The juice at +3.5 then moved back and forth several times before the line fell again to Fever +2.5 at -102, with Las Vegas -2.5 at -118.
That low point did not hold. The spread went back up to +3.5, and Indiana is now priced at -115 at that number. The splits have also changed. Indiana still holds 100% of the money but only 50% of the tickets. Most of the dollars are on the Fever while the ticket count is evenly split, which suggests larger wagers are backing Indiana. Bettors who missed the opening +4.5 can still get the key +3.5, even if they pay a little extra juice for it.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/25 | 182.5 (-110) | 182.5 (-110) | OV 78%, OV 50% |
| 09/25 | 183.5 (-110) | 183.5 (-110) | OV 78%, OV 50% |
| 09/25 | 182.5 (-110) | 182.5 (-110) | - |
| 09/25 | 181.5 (-112) | 181.5 (-108) | - |
| 09/25 | 182.5 (-110) | 182.5 (-110) | - |
| 09/25 | 181.5 (-112) | 181.5 (-108) | - |
| 09/25 | 181.5 (-110) | 181.5 (-110) | - |
| 09/25 | 182.5 (-110) | 182.5 (-110) | - |
The total opened at 182.5 and has moved within a tight two-point range since then. It dropped to 181.5 early, returned to 182.5, and dipped back to 181.5 with slight juice toward the Over. It then went up to 183.5 before settling back at its opening number of 182.5. The Over is attracting 78% of the money on 50% of the tickets, so the bigger bets lean toward points. The market keeps returning to 182.5, which makes it a fair price, and bettors on the Over can still get the opening number.
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Key Matchups and Game Preview: Fever vs Aces
Fever Took Two of Three From the Aces
The regular-season series is the starting point for this handicap. Indiana won the first two meetings, both on the road, by scores of 84-68 and 109-75. Those were not close games. The Fever won by 16 and then by 34, holding the Aces to 75 points or fewer both times.
Las Vegas answered in the third meeting with an 86-84 overtime win in Indiana. Even that loss is useful for Fever backers. It took an extra period to settle, and the two-point margin would have been a cover at +3.5. Across all three meetings, Indiana covered this number every time. That is the strongest single argument for taking the points in Game 1.
Aces Riding a Seven-Game Win Streak
Las Vegas enters the playoffs in far better form. The Aces closed the regular season on a seven-game winning streak, finishing with a 100-82 win at Phoenix. That run helped them reach 31-13 and the No. 3 seed, three games better than Indiana's 28-16 record.
Momentum is a real factor in a best-of-three series, where one bad night can end a season. Las Vegas has home court and is playing its best basketball at the right time, which explains why the market makes the Aces the favorite despite losing the season series. The question is whether that recent form is worth more than 3.5 points against an opponent that has already dominated them twice in their own building.
Indiana Backcourt: Mitchell and Clark
Indiana's offense runs through one of the most dangerous backcourts in the league. Kelsey Mitchell led the Fever with 24.7 points per game on 50.9% shooting, which is elite efficiency for a volume scorer. Caitlin Clark added 22.3 points and a league-best 8.3 assists.
That pairing is why Indiana led the WNBA at 96.0 points per game. Mitchell can score from anywhere, and Clark creates for herself and everyone around her. When both are playing well, the Fever can overwhelm any defense, as the 109-75 win in Las Vegas showed. For an underdog getting points, a backcourt with this kind of scoring ceiling is exactly what bettors want, because it keeps Indiana in the game even when the Aces make a run.
Las Vegas Leans on A'ja Wilson
The Aces have the best individual player on the floor in A'ja Wilson. She averaged 26.2 points and 9.4 rebounds while shooting 52.7% from the field. She scores efficiently in volume and controls the glass, and she is the main reason Las Vegas can win games without its best stuff from everyone else.
Wilson's matchup with Indiana's frontcourt is the most important individual battle in Game 1. If the Fever can make her work for her points and keep her off the offensive boards, the Aces lose their most reliable advantage. If she dominates the paint, Las Vegas has a clear path to covering. That is why Indiana's injury news carries so much weight in this game.
Fever Need Aliyah Boston Against Wilson
Aliyah Boston is the swing factor in this series. She averaged 16.1 points and 8.0 rebounds but is listed out with a lower-leg injury and a September 27 estimated return date. Her status matters most because of Wilson.
Boston is one of Indiana's strongest interior rebounders and defenders. Without her, the Fever would be much thinner inside against a player averaging 26.2 points and 9.4 rebounds. That could mean more second-chance points for Las Vegas and more foul trouble for Indiana's remaining bigs. The +3.5 play is strongest if Boston is cleared. If she is ruled out, bettors should expect Wilson to have a bigger night and weigh that against the value of the number.
Aces Secondary Scoring With Jackie Young
Jackie Young gives Las Vegas a strong second option at 18.9 points and 6.8 assists per game. She takes pressure off Wilson by handling the ball and setting up teammates, and she can take over scoring when defenses focus on the paint.
Young and Wilson together give the Aces a well-balanced attack that helped Las Vegas average 91.5 points per game on 49% shooting. Indiana cannot focus only on Wilson. The Fever held this offense under 76 points twice this season, so they have shown they can slow the Aces down, but doing it again in a playoff game with Las Vegas at full confidence is a different challenge.
Fever Late-Season Stumbles
Indiana did not finish strong. The Fever lost two of their final three regular-season games, including an 86-66 loss at Minnesota. Compared with the Aces' seven straight wins, that difference in form is part of why the market leans toward Las Vegas.
Recent form still needs context. Indiana's injury situation with Boston and Tyasha Harris affects how much weight bettors should give to those late losses. The head-to-head results against Las Vegas remain the more relevant sample for this specific matchup, and those results strongly favor the Fever against the spread.
Two Top Offenses Push Fever vs Aces Total
The case for the Over starts with season-long scoring. Indiana led the league at 96.0 points per game, and Las Vegas averaged 91.5. Those two averages add up to 187.5, which is five points above the current total. Both teams also shot 49% from the field this season, so neither offense relies on low-percentage volume to score.
The head-to-head results are more mixed. The three meetings produced 152, 184, and 170 combined points, and only the 109-75 game cleared 182.5. That is a real caution flag for Over bettors. Still, Game 1 features three elite scorers in Mitchell, Clark, and Wilson, who combined for 73.2 points per game this season. In a faster playoff opener, with both offenses at close to full strength, 182.5 is high but within reach.
Betting Trends: IND vs LV
- Indiana won the regular-season series against Las Vegas 2-1.
- Indiana won both meetings in Las Vegas, 84-68 and 109-75.
- Las Vegas won the third meeting 86-84 in overtime in Indiana.
- Indiana covered +3.5 in all three IND vs LV meetings this season.
- Only one of the three meetings, the 109-75 game, went over 182.5.
- Indiana led the WNBA at 96.0 points per game. Las Vegas averaged 91.5.
- Both teams shot 49% from the field this season.
- Las Vegas closed the regular season on a seven-game winning streak, ending with a 100-82 win at Phoenix.
- Indiana lost two of its final three games, including an 86-66 loss at Minnesota.
- The spread opened at Las Vegas -4.5 and dropped as low as -2.5 before settling at -3.5.
- Indiana is drawing 100% of the spread money on 50% of the tickets.
- The Over is drawing 78% of the money on 50% of the tickets.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: IND vs LV
Indiana Injury Report
- Aliyah Boston (Lower Leg): Listed out with a September 27 estimated return date. Averaged 16.1 points and 8.0 rebounds. Her status is the most important injury note for this game.
- Tyasha Harris (Leg): Listed out with a September 27 estimated return date.
Las Vegas Injury Report
- Dana Evans (Knee): Listed with a September 27 estimated return date.
- NaLyssa Smith (Leg): Remains sidelined.
The key thing to watch before tip-off is Boston's status. If she is cleared, Indiana gets back an important interior defender and rebounder for the Wilson matchup, and both the +3.5 and the Over look stronger. If she sits, Las Vegas gets a clearer edge in the paint. Harris and Evans are also worth tracking, since both carry the same September 27 estimated return date and would affect guard depth on each side.
Side and Over/Under Picks: Fever vs Aces
Fever +3.5 Against the Spread
Las Vegas has the better record, home court, and the hotter team. Those are the reasons the Aces are favored. But Indiana has beaten this team by 16 and 34 in Las Vegas and lost the third meeting by just two in overtime. The Fever covered +3.5 in every meeting this season.
The market supports the Fever as well. Indiana holds 100% of the spread money, and the line has held at the key number of 3.5 after dipping as low as 2.5. With the league's highest-scoring offense and a backcourt of Mitchell and Clark, Indiana has the firepower to keep this game within one possession. The pick is strongest if Boston is cleared.
- Spread Pick: Indiana Fever +3.5 (-115)
Fever and Aces Over 182.5
Combined season scoring averages of 187.5 points put this game above the posted total. Both offenses shoot 49% from the field, and Mitchell, Clark, and Wilson give Game 1 three scorers capable of taking over. The head-to-head scoring gives some reason for caution, but the larger sample of both teams' seasons points toward the Over. The money agrees, with 78% of dollars on the Over.
- Total Pick: Over 182.5 (-110)
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas vs Indiana
Expect a back-and-forth game between two offenses that can score in bunches. Wilson's size and the Aces' momentum should help Las Vegas win a close Game 1 at home, but Indiana's backcourt keeps the Fever in it to the final possession. A one-point margin gives Indiana a clear cover at +3.5, and the projected 187 combined points clear the total by four and a half.
- Projected Final Score: Las Vegas Aces 94, Indiana Fever 93
- Spread Result: Indiana +3.5 covers
- Total Result: 187 points, Over 182.5 cashes
How to Wager On Fever vs Aces
This matchup gives bettors two clear positions, but both depend on how the injury news breaks. Boston's status is the biggest factor. She affects the Fever's ability to defend Wilson and control the glass, and her scoring affects the total. The patient approach is to wait for official confirmation on Boston before placing a full-size bet.
Timing Your Indiana +3.5 Bet
The half-point matters in this game. The spread has already moved between +2.5 and +4.5, and a projected one-point margin makes +3.5 a much better position than +2.5. If you see +3.5 at a better price than -115, take it. If the line drops back to +2.5, consider cutting your stake or waiting to see whether it comes back up, since it has already done that once. Bettors who expect Indiana to win outright can add a small Fever moneyline bet, but keep most of the exposure on the points, since the Aces are still the projected winner.
The two plays can also work together. A close, high-scoring game is exactly what both picks need, so pairing Indiana +3.5 with the Over fits this handicap. Just remember that correlated bets tend to win or lose together, so manage your total exposure.
For another data-driven read on this Game 1 matchup, check out AI picks for model-based projections on the spread and total. If you want to compare specific tools before the playoffs heat up, our Dimers review covers simulation-driven probabilities, and our Oddible review looks at another option for tracking lines and finding value throughout the WNBA postseason.
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