Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Tempo vs Sun prediction brings together the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference at Mohegan Sun Arena, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET. Toronto is 11-32 and Connecticut is 10-33, and both rosters have been badly thinned by injuries heading into this matchup. The Sun are a small home favorite, moving between -1.5 and -2.5 on the spread, with Connecticut -130 and Toronto +110 on the moneyline. The total has dropped from 168.5 to 166.5. The Tempo have already won both meetings this season, and a Connecticut team that averages just 78.5 points per game is hard to trust as the favorite. For more daily edges across the league, check out our full board of WNBA picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Toronto Tempo +1.5 (-102)
- Total Pick: Under 166.5 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: Tempo 83, Sun 79
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Tempo | +1.5 (-102) | +110 | Over 166.5 (-112) |
| Connecticut Sun | -1.5 (-118) | -130 | Under 166.5 (-108) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Toronto | Connecticut | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | +1.5 (-102) | -1.5 (-118) | 68%, 60% |
| 09/24 | +2.5 (-118) | -2.5 (-102) | 73%, 67% |
| 09/24 | +1.5 (-102) | -1.5 (-118) | 73%, 67% |
| 09/24 | +2.5 (-118) | -2.5 (-102) | 100%, 100% |
| 09/24 | +1.5 (-102) | -1.5 (-118) | 100%, 100% |
| 09/24 | +2.5 (-118) | -2.5 (-102) | 100%, 100% |
| 09/24 | +1.5 (-102) | -1.5 (-118) | |
| 09/24 | +2.5 (-118) | -2.5 (-102) | |
| 09/24 | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
The spread opened at Connecticut -1.5 with even -110 juice on both sides. Since then, the book has kept switching between two nearly identical options: Sun -1.5 at -118 and Sun -2.5 at -102. Those prices carry about the same value, so the market has settled on the Sun being roughly a two-point favorite. The key detail is that the juice moved toward Connecticut after the open, so Toronto bettors are now getting a better price than the opening -110. That means you can take the Tempo at +1.5 for -102 or pay -118 for the extra point at +2.5. In a game between two evenly matched teams, that extra point can matter.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 166.5 (-112) | 166.5 (-108) | UN 83%, UN 67% |
| 09/24 | 167.5 (-115) | 167.5 (-105) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/24 | 168.5 (-108) | 168.5 (-112) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/24 | 168.5 (-112) | 168.5 (-108) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/24 | 168.5 (-105) | 168.5 (-115) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/24 | 168.5 (-110) | 168.5 (-110) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/24 | 168.5 (-115) | 168.5 (-105) | |
| 09/24 | 168.5 (-110) | 168.5 (-110) |
The total has moved in one direction. It opened at 168.5 and held there through several small price changes, with 100% of the money and tickets on the Under. The book eventually dropped the number to 167.5 and then to 166.5. The latest split still shows 83% of the money and 67% of the tickets on the Under. A two-point drop driven by one-sided Under action shows the market expects a slower, lower-scoring game than the opener suggested. The Under at -108 is still a fair price, and it matches both the betting action and the injury reports.
Tempo vs Sun Key Matchups and Game Preview
This is a matchup between two teams at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and both are missing key players. Toronto is 11-32 and has lost seven straight games. Connecticut is 10-33. Despite the losing streak, the Tempo have had the Sun's number this season, and that head-to-head history is the starting point for this pick.
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Tempo Own the Season Series
Toronto has won both meetings with Connecticut this season. The Tempo won the first game 106-102 in overtime and took the second 101-97. They scored at least 101 points in both games, and both were decided by four points. That shows two things: the Tempo have matched up well with the Sun, and these games tend to be close. Both points support taking Toronto with the points.
Sun Offense Struggles to Keep Pace
Connecticut's offense has been a major problem all season. The Sun score only 78.5 points per game, compared with 85.8 for Toronto. That is a gap of more than seven points per game. Now Connecticut is without Brittney Griner, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Saniya Rivers and Kennedy Burke, which removes a lot of scoring and size from a lineup that already struggled to score. Trusting the Sun to win by more than two points is difficult with those absences.
Toronto Holds the Shooting Edge
The Tempo have been the more efficient offense. Toronto shoots 44% from the field compared with 42% for Connecticut, and it averages 19.6 assists per game to the Sun's 19.1. The assist edge is small, but it shows the Tempo move the ball a bit better. Against a Connecticut defense missing its interior size, Toronto should find good looks near the basket.
Connecticut Defense Brings Steals and Blocks
The Sun do have one clear strength. Connecticut is better defensively in steals and blocks, and it allows 88.2 points per game compared with Toronto's 94.3. That defensive edge is the main reason Connecticut is favored. However, the blocked-shot advantage depended largely on the Sun's frontcourt, and with Griner and Nelson-Ododa both out, that edge is likely much smaller in this game.
Tempo Lean on Isabelle Harrison and Julie Allemand
With Marina Mabrey out for the season, Toronto loses its leading scorer at 20.8 points per game. Isabelle Harrison becomes even more important after scoring 21 points in the Tempo's most recent game. She is the player most likely to take advantage of Connecticut's weakened frontcourt. Julie Allemand remains Toronto's top playmaker at 5.5 assists per game, and her ability to set up Harrison inside will be key to the Tempo's offense.
Sun Frontcourt Stripped by Injuries
Connecticut's biggest problem is inside. Without Griner and Nelson-Ododa, the Sun have lost much of their size. That weakens their rim protection and their rebounding, which should give Toronto more second-chance opportunities. When a team loses its main interior players, the opponent usually gets easier looks at the basket and more offensive rebounds, and that is exactly where Harrison can do damage.
Why the Tempo Have Value as Underdogs
Toronto is only a small underdog, and it is getting points against a team it has already beaten twice. The Tempo score more, shoot better and face a Sun team without its key frontcourt players. The seven-game losing streak is a concern, but the injury news and head-to-head results make Toronto the more reliable side. Getting +1.5 or +2.5 in a game that could come down to the final possession is a good spot for Tempo bettors.
TOR vs CON Betting Trends
Tempo Trends
- Toronto enters Thursday at 11-32.
- The Tempo have lost seven straight games.
- Toronto is 2-0 against Connecticut this season.
- The Tempo won the meetings 106-102 in overtime and 101-97.
- Toronto scores 85.8 points per game and allows 94.3.
- The Tempo shoot 44% from the field.
Sun Trends
- Connecticut enters Thursday at 10-33.
- The Sun are 0-2 against Toronto this season.
- Connecticut scores 78.5 points per game and allows 88.2.
- The Sun shoot 42% from the field.
- Connecticut opened -1.5 at -110 and moved to -1.5 at -118.
- The total dropped from 168.5 to 166.5 with Under money.
TOR vs CON Key Injuries and Things To Know
Toronto Injury Report
- Marina Mabrey – Out for the season (20.8 points per game)
- Brittney Sykes – Out for the season
- Aneesah Morrow – Out for the season
- Temi Fagbenle – Unavailable
Connecticut Injury Report
- Brittney Griner – Out
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa – Out
- Saniya Rivers – Out
- Kennedy Burke – Out for the season
Things To Know About the Tempo and Sun
Injuries are the biggest factor in this game. Toronto is without its leading scorer in Mabrey, along with Sykes, Morrow and Fagbenle. That removes a large part of the offense that scored 101 or more points in both earlier meetings. The Tempo will rely heavily on Harrison and Allemand, and their scoring is likely to come in a slower, more half-court style.
Connecticut's losses are just as damaging. Griner and Nelson-Ododa take away the Sun's size, Rivers and Burke take away scoring depth, and the team already had the weaker offense. With both rosters this thin, the pace and efficiency should drop from the earlier meetings, which is why the total has fallen. Toronto should also have an edge on the glass against a smaller Connecticut lineup.
Tempo vs Sun Side and Over/Under Picks
Toronto Spread Pick
The spread pick is Toronto Tempo +1.5 (-102). The Tempo are 2-0 against the Sun this season, they score more than seven points per game more than Connecticut, and they face a Sun team without its top frontcourt players. Harrison should find room inside against a weakened interior, and Allemand gives Toronto a reliable playmaker to run the offense.
Bettors who want more protection can take Toronto +2.5 at -118. Both earlier meetings were decided by four points, so this game could come down to the last few possessions. The extra point costs a little more but guards against a close Connecticut win. Either way, the Tempo are the side to back.
Under Pick for Toronto at Connecticut
The total pick is Under 166.5 (-108). The earlier meetings went well over this number, with 208 points in overtime and 198 in regulation. But those games featured Mabrey, Griner and several other players who won't play Thursday. With both rosters this thin, scoring should drop sharply.
Connecticut averages just 78.5 points per game even at full strength, and now it is missing much of its offense. Toronto is without its top scorer. The market agrees, with the total falling two points on one-sided Under action. A final in the low 160s fits this matchup.
Tempo vs Sun Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Tempo 83, Sun 79
- Winner: Toronto Tempo
- Spread: Tempo +1.5 (-102) covers
- Total: 162 points, Under 166.5 hits
Toronto should attack Connecticut's weakened frontcourt, with Harrison leading the way inside and Allemand setting up the offense. The Sun's steals and blocks keep the game close, but their thin lineup struggles to score consistently. The Tempo control the boards and pull ahead late. A 83-79 Toronto win ends the losing streak, sweeps the season series and cashes both the spread and the Under.
How to Wager On Tempo vs Sun
This matchup comes down to trusting the team that has already beaten its opponent twice. The Tempo +1.5 at -102 is the base play, and the +2.5 at -118 is a strong alternative for bettors who want protection against a one- or two-point loss. Toronto is also +110 on the moneyline, which is worth a look for those confident in an outright win given the head-to-head results.
The Under 166.5 is backed by the long injury lists and a market that has dropped the total two points. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Tempo spread with the Under in a same-game parlay, since a close, low-scoring Toronto win helps both legs. Shop around for the best spread number before tipoff, because books have been switching between -1.5 and -2.5. Lock in your bets before the 7:00 PM ET tipoff.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you find edges across the WNBA board.
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