Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday August 28 2026
Las Vegas hosts a severely depleted Toronto Tempo roster Friday night in a matchup that heavily favors the home team, and this preview breaks down the odds, line movement and betting angles as part of our ongoing WNBA predictions coverage. The Aces already hold a 2-0 season-series advantage over Toronto, and the Tempo's injury situation makes this third meeting even more lopsided on paper.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Las Vegas -14.5 (-102)
- Total: Under 175.5 (-112)
- Final Score Prediction: Aces 96, Tempo 77
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Date | Toronto | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/28 | 14½-118 | -14½-102 | LV 83%, 76% |
| 08/28 | 13½-105 | -13½-115 | LV 73%, 75% |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Toronto | Las Vegas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/28 | 14½-118 | -14½-102 | LV 83%, 76% |
| 08/28 | 13½-105 | -13½-115 | LV 73%, 75% |
| 08/27 | 13½-115 | -13½-105 | LV 73%, 75% |
| 08/27 | 13½-115 | -13½-105 | LV 73%, 75% |
| 08/27 | 13½-115 | -13½-105 | LV 74%, 79% |
| 08/27 | 13½-115 | -13½-105 | LV 74%, 79% |
| 08/27 | 15½-110 | -15½-110 | LV 88%, 89% |
| 08/27 | 15½-110 | -15½-110 | LV 91%, 93% |
| 08/27 | 15½-110 | -15½-110 | LV 87%, 91% |
| 08/27 | 15½-110 | -15½-110 | |
| 08/27 | 15½-110 | -15½-110 | |
| 08/27 | 15½-110 | -15½-110 | |
| 08/26 | 15½-105 | -15½-115 | |
| 08/26 | 15½-105 | -15½-115 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/28 | 175½o-108 | 175½u-112 | U93%, U86% |
| 08/28 | 175½o-112 | 175½u-108 | U94%, U83% |
| 08/27 | 176½o-115 | 176½u-105 | U91%, U67% |
| 08/27 | 177½o-105 | 177½u-115 | U93%, U67% |
| 08/27 | 178½o-108 | 178½u-112 | U94%, U90% |
| 08/27 | 178½o-112 | 178½u-108 | U92%, U87% |
| 08/27 | 178½o-105 | 178½u-115 | U89%, U87% |
| 08/27 | 180½o-110 | 180½u-110 | |
| 08/26 | 180½o-115 | 180½u-105 |
Tempo vs Aces Key Matchups and Game Preview
Aces Hold Advantages Across the Board
Las Vegas holds advantages across most major statistical categories, averaging 90.5 points per game while allowing 86.9, compared with Toronto scoring 87.0 and surrendering 93.6. Las Vegas also shoots 48% from the field compared with Toronto's 44%, averages 33.5 rebounds to the Tempo's 31.6 and distributes 21.9 assists compared with Toronto's 19.9.
Wilson's Status Looms Over the Spread
A'ja Wilson has been the driving force for the Aces, averaging 26.0 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 52.1% from the field, but she is listed as a game-time decision because of a back issue, making her availability the biggest variable surrounding the large spread. Chelsea Gray adds 6.8 assists per game and remains an important piece of a Las Vegas offense that has already handled Toronto twice this season.
Las Vegas Already Dominating the Season Series
The Aces won 109-83 on July 20 before earning an 88-78 victory in Toronto five days ago, giving them a 2-0 season-series advantage. That recent history sets the stage for Friday's rubber match at a venue where Las Vegas has already shown considerable control.
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Tempo Missing Multiple Key Contributors
Toronto's injury situation makes the third meeting even more difficult. Marina Mabrey, the Tempo's leading scorer at 20.8 points per game, is out with a hip injury, while Julie Allemand, who averages 5.6 assists, is also unavailable with a head injury. Maria Conde and Nyara Sabally are out as well, and Isabelle Harrison is questionable with a foot issue, leaving Toronto without several of its most important offensive creators.
Betting Trends: TOR vs LV
- Las Vegas leads the season series 2-0, including an 88-78 win in Toronto just five days ago
- Las Vegas has won three of its last five games, including consecutive victories over Connecticut and Toronto
- Toronto has dropped four of its last five games and has lost two straight
- Public money and ticket counts have consistently favored Las Vegas, ranging from 73% to 94%
- The spread has fluctuated between 13.5 and 15.5 points across recent updates
Key Injuries and Things to Know: TOR vs LV
- Aces forward A'ja Wilson is a game-time decision because of a back issue
- Aces guard Dana Evans and forward Nalyssa Smith are both out
- Tempo guard Marina Mabrey, the team's leading scorer, is out with a hip injury
- Tempo guard Julie Allemand is unavailable with a head injury
- Tempo Maria Conde and Nyara Sabally are also out
- Tempo forward Isabelle Harrison is questionable with a foot issue
Tempo vs Aces Side and Over/Under Picks
Las Vegas is laying 14.5 points (-102) with a total of 175.5. Even with Wilson's status uncertain, Toronto's collection of injuries makes sustaining offense for four quarters difficult, so Aces -14.5 is the preferred side heading into Friday night.
The Tempo's missing scorers also create a case for a lower-scoring game than their season averages suggest, making Under 175.5 (-112) the stronger total play.
- Side Pick: Las Vegas -14.5 (-102)
- Total Pick: Under 175.5 (-112)
Final Score Prediction
With Toronto missing several of its most important offensive creators and Las Vegas already holding a commanding season-series lead, the Aces are projected to control this matchup from start to finish.
- Final Score Prediction: Aces 96, Tempo 77
How to Wager on Tempo vs Aces
Bettors looking for additional ways to approach this Tempo vs Aces matchup can also compare data-driven projections before placing a wager. For more modeling and analysis on this game and others across the slate, check out these resources:
- AI picks for computer-generated projections on this matchup
- Dimers review for a look at how their model projects Tempo vs Aces
- Oddible review for another modeling perspective on this Western Conference matchup
With Las Vegas favored on the spread and the total leaning Under, tracking how these numbers move between now and tipoff can help bettors find the best possible price on either side of Friday's matchup.
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