Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Tuesday May 19 2026
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The Toronto Tempo and Phoenix Mercury meet at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET with coverage available on WNBA League Pass. Phoenix enters the matchup as a 7.5-point favorite with the Mercury listed at -310 on the moneyline while Toronto comes back at +250. The total for the game is set at 170.5 points. Both teams enter the contest with matching 2-2 records, but Phoenix will look to capitalize on home court after splitting its first two games in Phoenix. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Toronto Searching for Another Road Victory
Toronto enters this matchup with a 2-2 overall record and a 1-1 mark away from home. The Tempo have alternated wins and losses through the early part of the season but are coming off an impressive 106-96 road victory over Los Angeles. Prior to that win, Toronto dropped a 99-95 decision against Los Angeles after picking up an 86-73 home victory over Seattle. The team also suffered narrow losses to Washington and Minnesota earlier in the month, showing that several of their games have remained competitive late into the fourth quarter.
The Tempo are averaging 88.0 points per game while allowing 84.0 points defensively. Toronto is shooting 41 percent from the field and averaging 30.3 rebounds per contest. The offense has also generated 17.5 assists per game while the defense has produced 10.5 steals and 3.3 blocks. Those numbers indicate that Toronto has been able to create pressure defensively even when facing difficult matchups on the road.
One major strength for Toronto has been its ability to force turnovers and create transition opportunities. Averaging 10.5 steals per game gives the Tempo one of the more disruptive defensive profiles entering this matchup. The concern, however, comes on the glass where Toronto averages only 30.3 rebounds per game. Against a Phoenix team that has been slightly stronger in rebounding, second-chance opportunities could become an important factor throughout the night.
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Mercury Looking to Build Momentum at Home
Phoenix also enters Tuesday night with a 2-2 overall record while holding a 1-1 record at home. The Mercury are coming off a 91-83 victory over Chicago and have won two of their last four games overall. Earlier in the schedule, Phoenix lost back-to-back games against Minnesota and Golden State before bouncing back with the strong performance against Chicago. The Mercury also opened this recent stretch with a dominant 99-66 road victory over Las Vegas.
The Mercury are averaging 88.3 points per game while allowing 83.0 points defensively. Phoenix owns a 43 percent field goal percentage while averaging 33.0 rebounds and 18.8 assists per contest. Defensively, the Mercury average 4.5 blocks and 7.3 steals per game. Phoenix has shown balance offensively while also protecting the paint effectively through the opening weeks of the season.
One important advantage for Phoenix in this matchup is overall efficiency. The Mercury are slightly better than Toronto in points per game, field goal percentage, rebounds, assists, and defensive scoring average. Phoenix has also shown the ability to produce explosive scoring performances, including the 99-point effort against Las Vegas and the 91-point showing against Chicago. If the Mercury can maintain that offensive pace while controlling the rebounding battle, they could put significant pressure on Toronto defensively.
Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction
Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -7.5
Phoenix enters this matchup with the stronger overall statistical profile and has already shown the ability to win comfortably at times this season. The Mercury hold advantages in shooting percentage, rebounding, assists, blocks, and points allowed per game. Toronto has been competitive, but the Tempo have also struggled in several close losses while allowing 96 and 99 points in two recent contests against Los Angeles. Phoenix appears to have the more balanced offense entering the game, and playing at home should help the Mercury continue that momentum after the recent win over Chicago.
Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury Total Pick
- Pick: Over 170.5
I like the over in this matchup because both teams are averaging at least 88 points per game entering Tuesday night. Toronto is coming off a 106-point performance while Phoenix has scored 91 and 99 points in two of its victories already this season. The Tempo have also allowed 96 and 99 points in recent games, while Phoenix allowed 95 points in its loss to Golden State. With both offenses playing at a productive pace and the recent results trending toward higher scoring games, this total looks reachable.
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 92 – Toronto Tempo 84
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