Cam Schlittler 97% to Win AL Cy Young | Kalshi Promo Code
Kalshi currently prices the New York Yankees right-hander at approximately a 97% chance to win the AL Cy Young, with nearly $2.8 million in market volume.
Polymarket is even more aggressive, putting Schlittler at approximately 98% in its AL Cy Young market, which has generated about $1 million in volume.
The move comes after another strong outing Saturday against Arizona, when Schlittler allowed only one earned run over six innings and lowered his season ERA to 1.94.
Cam Schlittler Cy Young Odds Reach 97% on Kalshi
The AL Cy Young prediction market has become increasingly one-sided.
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Kalshi currently lists:
- Cam Schlittler: 97%
- Other contenders: approximately 3% combined
- Total market volume: approximately $2.8 million
The live contract is trading around 98 cents on the Yes side, which corresponds to a market-implied probability near 97% at the time of publication.
Polymarket shows nearly the same picture, with Schlittler around 98% to win the award.
Those prices do not mean the award has officially been decided.
Cy Young voting is conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America after the regular season, and prediction-market prices can still move before resolution.
But the current trading strongly favors Schlittler.
Schlittler Lowers ERA to 1.94 Against Arizona
Schlittler strengthened his case Saturday against the Diamondbacks.
He worked six innings, allowing:
- 3 hits
- 3 runs
- 1 earned run
- 3 walks
- 6 strikeouts
Two of the three runs charged against him were unearned after his own throwing error contributed to the inning.
Schlittler still finished the night with his season ERA down to 1.94.
That is particularly significant because a sub-2.00 ERA season by a Yankees starter is extraordinarily rare.
MLB noted that Schlittler is attempting to become only the third Yankees starter in the Live Ball Era to finish a season with an ERA below 2.00, joining Ron Guidry in 1978 and Spud Chandler in 1943.
Cam Schlittler's 2026 Stats
Schlittler's full-season numbers explain why the award market has moved so heavily in his direction.
Through 32 starts, he has posted:
- 14-6 record
- 1.94 ERA
- 190.2 innings pitched
- 234 strikeouts
- 0.91 WHIP
He currently ranks first in the American League in both ERA and WHIP, while also leading the league in innings pitched.
His 234 strikeouts rank third in the AL.
That combination of run prevention, workload and strikeouts has made Schlittler the dominant pitcher in the current market.
Schlittler Has Allowed One Earned Run or Fewer in 24 Starts
Consistency may be the most striking part of Schlittler's season.
After Saturday's outing, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in 24 starts this year.
According to MLB, only Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson have matched that total in a Live Ball Era season when openers are excluded.
That puts Schlittler's year in rare historical territory.
His recent form has also been especially strong.
Over his last seven starts, Schlittler is 4-0 with a 1.02 ERA, 52 strikeouts and a 0.84 WHIP across 44 innings.
Final MLB Cy Young Poll Was Unanimous for Schlittler
The prediction markets are not alone in treating Schlittler as the overwhelming favorite.
MLB.com's final Cy Young poll of the season had Schlittler as the unanimous American League choice among all 32 voters surveyed.
The same poll described the AL race as essentially settled entering the final two weeks.
That poll does not determine the actual award winner.
The official Cy Young vote is separate.
Still, the unanimous MLB.com result gives the prediction-market pricing another piece of supporting evidence.
How Much Has the Kalshi Market Moved?
Kalshi's current page shows Schlittler around 97%, with the market indicating a roughly 10-point recent rise.
The Yes side is trading near 98 cents.
That means the remaining uncertainty in the market has narrowed considerably.
Earlier in the season, Dylan Cease and other challengers remained much closer.
By mid-August, Schlittler had 25 first-place votes compared with 10 for Cease in MLB.com's fifth Cy Young poll.
The final weeks have widened the gap.
What Happened to the Other AL Cy Young Contenders?
Schlittler's rise has not happened because the American League lacked quality pitchers.
Dylan Cease was a serious challenger during the middle of the season and led the league in strikeout rate for much of the year.
As recently as August, MLB described the race as a two-man contest between Schlittler and Cease.
But Schlittler's combination of ERA, innings and consistency has created separation.
Kalshi's current market shows the remaining field with only a small combined probability compared with Schlittler's 97%.
Schlittler's September Has Strengthened His Case
His three most recent starts have been particularly important.
On September 8 against Colorado, Schlittler allowed one earned run across seven innings while striking out 10.
On September 13 against the Mets, he threw six scoreless innings, allowing only one hit and striking out eight.
On September 19 against Arizona, he worked six innings with one earned run and six strikeouts.
Across those three outings, Schlittler allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings.
That is exactly the kind of late-season performance that can solidify an awards case.
Kalshi vs Polymarket AL Cy Young Odds
The two major prediction markets are nearly aligned.
Current prices are approximately:
- Kalshi: Cam Schlittler 97%
- Polymarket: Cam Schlittler 98%
Kalshi has seen approximately $2.8 million traded in its AL Cy Young market.
Polymarket reports approximately $1 million in volume on its corresponding AL Cy Young market.
That agreement between platforms makes Schlittler one of the strongest individual award favorites currently available in MLB prediction markets.
Can Schlittler Still Lose the Cy Young?
Yes.
A 97% or 98% prediction-market probability is not the same thing as an official result.
The award is determined by human voters, and those votes have not yet been announced.
There is also still regular-season baseball remaining.
But from a market perspective, the implied chance of another pitcher overtaking Schlittler is now extremely small.
That is why the Yes contract trades close to $1 rather than near the middle of the range.
How the Kalshi AL Cy Young Market Works
Kalshi's AL Cy Young market is a multi-outcome prediction market tied to the official 2026 American League Cy Young Award winner.
A Schlittler contract trading around 98 cents means traders collectively price his winning chances near the high-90% range.
If Schlittler is officially named the winner under the market's resolution rules, a winning Yes contract settles at $1.
If another pitcher wins, the contract settles at $0.
Kalshi lists the maximum payout date as December 8, 2026.
How to Use Kalshi Promo Code PICKS2026
Eligible new users can access the current Kalshi signup offer using promo code PICKS2026.
- Open Kalshi through the promotional link in this article.
- Create an eligible account.
- Enter promo code PICKS2026 where required.
- Complete the required identity-verification process.
- Search for the 2026 AL Cy Young market.
- Review Schlittler's current market price and the complete contract rules before trading.
Eligibility and promotion availability can vary by location and account.
Cam Schlittler Cy Young Market Outlook
The final week of the regular season begins with Schlittler holding an overwhelming lead in the prediction markets.
Kalshi currently gives him approximately a 97% chance to win the American League Cy Young Award.
Polymarket has him at approximately 98%.
The underlying numbers support that market position.
Schlittler is 14-6 with a 1.94 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and 234 strikeouts across 190.2 innings.
He leads the American League in ERA, WHIP and innings pitched.
He has also allowed one earned run or fewer in 24 starts, putting him alongside some of the most dominant pitching seasons of the Live Ball Era.
The award itself remains unofficial.
But with the final MLB.com poll unanimous and both major prediction markets above 95%, Schlittler enters the last week of the season with the strongest possible market position short of the award already being announced.
Kalshi probability: Cam Schlittler approximately 97% Polymarket probability: Cam Schlittler approximately 98% Record: 14-6 ERA: 1.94 WHIP: 0.91 Strikeouts: 234 Innings pitched: 190.2 Team: New York Yankees Award: 2026 American League Cy Young
Prediction-market prices represent current trader pricing and can change at any time. They are not guarantees of an award result, and trading involves risk.
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