Carlos Alcaraz US Open Chances at 49% | Polymarket Live Odds
Carlos Alcaraz US Open chances are at 49% on Polymarket before the defending champion faces Tommy Paul in the Round of 16 on Sunday.
Alcaraz has created significant separation at the top of the live men's championship market. Alexander Zverev is next at roughly 22%, Ben Shelton sits near 8% and Daniil Medvedev is around 6%.
More than $20.5 million has already been traded across the 2026 men's U.S. Open winner market, including roughly $1.8 million on the Alcaraz contract alone.
View the live 2026 men's U.S. Open winner market on Polymarket.
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Carlos Alcaraz US Open Chances Reach 49%
Alcaraz entered U.S. Open Fan Week around 35% on Polymarket.
His probability later fell closer to 26% after the draw, but the first week of the tournament has pushed him dramatically higher.
He now sits at 49%.
The move reflects both Alcaraz's own form and what has happened elsewhere in the men's draw.
The defending champion has won his first three matches while dropping only one set.
He beat Roman Safiullin and Jaime Faria before dismissing Wu Yibing 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 on Friday to reach the fourth round.
The U.S. Open reported after the Wu victory that Alcaraz had improved to 27-3 for his career at the tournament.
That run is especially significant because New York is Alcaraz's first tournament since a right-wrist injury sidelined him for more than four months.
The biggest question before the event was whether he could immediately return to Grand Slam-level tennis.
Through three rounds, the answer has been encouraging.
Tommy Paul Is Alcaraz's First Second-Week Test
Alcaraz faces No. 20 seed Tommy Paul on Sunday in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
The match is scheduled as the second contest of the day session, with a quarterfinal place at stake.
Paul is a much more substantial test than the opponents Alcaraz faced during the first week.
The two have played eight times, with Alcaraz holding a 6-2 head-to-head advantage.
That record favors the Spaniard, but their meetings have often been physical.
Both players cover the court extremely well, and Paul has enough speed and counterpunching ability to extend rallies that Alcaraz has been finishing quickly against lesser opponents.
Paul has also had a more demanding route into the fourth round.
After two four-set matches to begin the tournament, he needed five sets to defeat Alexander Bublik in the third round.
Alcaraz, by comparison, arrives after a straight-sets win and has spent less time under serious pressure.
That difference in workload matters when the tournament reaches its second week.
Why Alcaraz Has Pulled Away From Zverev and the Field
The 49% Polymarket price is not only a reflection of Alcaraz winning three matches.
The men's draw has also become more favorable around him.
Jannik Sinner withdrew before the tournament because of a knee injury, removing Alcaraz's biggest recent rival before the first round.
Several additional contenders have since disappeared from the bracket.
Taylor Fritz is out.
Novak Djokovic exited in the first round.
Other seeded players have also fallen, reducing the number of established major champions and top-level hard-court players still capable of challenging Alcaraz.
That has left Zverev as the clear second choice at approximately 22%.
The gap between first and second is now enormous.
Alcaraz is priced at more than twice Zverev's probability and roughly six times Shelton's.
That does not mean the tournament is decided.
A 49% probability still implies that the field collectively has a slightly better chance to win than Alcaraz does.
But for one player to hold nearly half of the championship probability in the Round of 16 is a very strong market position.
It also represents a major change from the start of the event.
For additional context, Picks & Parlays previously tracked Alcaraz around 35% before the tournament when his wrist and four-month absence were still the dominant questions.
Read the earlier Carlos Alcaraz U.S. Open market update.
Paul Match Is the Next Major Polymarket Catalyst
Sunday gives traders the next clean checkpoint.
If Alcaraz beats Paul comfortably, the current 49% probability could move higher before the quarterfinals.
A long five-set match could produce a different reaction even if Alcaraz advances.
Physical condition remains part of his championship story because this is his first tournament after an extended injury absence.
The deeper he goes without showing wrist problems or significant fatigue, the less uncertainty remains around that concern.
Paul also offers the first opponent capable of forcing Alcaraz into sustained defensive exchanges and longer baseline patterns.
That should give the market more useful information than another straightforward early-round victory.
The rest of the draw matters as well.
Zverev, Shelton, Medvedev and the other remaining contenders can strengthen or weaken their own prices depending on what happens throughout the Round of 16.
But Alcaraz enters Sunday with the biggest advantage on the board.
For more tournament coverage, visit the latest tennis picks and predictions at Picks & Parlays.
Alcaraz began U.S. Open Fan Week around 35%.
After three victories, a series of eliminations elsewhere in the draw and an encouraging return from injury, he is now at 49%.
Tommy Paul gets the next chance to change that number.
Prediction-market prices can change in real time. Probabilities cited reflect the market at the time of writing. Promotional availability, account eligibility and geographic restrictions can also change.
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