Clarity Act Odds Crash to 7% | Polymarket Promo Code
The Clarity Act's chances of becoming law in 2026 have collapsed after the Senate failed to advance the landmark cryptocurrency regulation bill Tuesday.
Polymarket now gives the Clarity Act roughly a 7% chance of being signed into law before the end of 2026.
That is a dramatic reversal from earlier Tuesday, when the same market was still around 19%, and from approximately 31% before expectations deteriorated ahead of the Senate vote.
The market has generated nearly $20 million in total trading volume, including millions of dollars in activity surrounding Tuesday's vote.
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Clarity Act Odds Fall to 7% on Polymarket
The market has repriced the legislation aggressively.
Polymarket currently shows approximately:
- Yes — 7%
- No — 93%
- Total volume — approximately $19.8 million
The contract resolves Yes only if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law by December 31, 2026.
Anything short of that produces a No resolution.
That makes Tuesday's failed Senate vote particularly damaging to the Yes side.
The bill is not technically dead, but the remaining legislative calendar is shrinking quickly as Congress approaches the November midterm elections.
Senate Vote Fails 49-50
The Senate failed to invoke cloture on the legislation Tuesday by a 49-50 vote.
Advancing the measure required 60 votes.
The failed procedural vote represents a major setback for legislation that the cryptocurrency industry has spent more than a year trying to move through Congress.
The Clarity Act is designed to establish a broader federal regulatory framework for digital assets and define how different cryptocurrencies and trading platforms should be overseen.
Supporters argue that the United States needs clearer federal rules for crypto companies, investors and exchanges.
Opposition to the Senate version centered heavily on ethics and conflict-of-interest provisions.
Democratic senators argued that the bill did not go far enough to address potential conflicts involving elected officials and cryptocurrency holdings, including President Donald Trump's financial interests in the industry.
Republicans made last-minute changes in an attempt to attract additional votes, but the revisions were not enough to reach the 60-vote threshold.
Polymarket Odds Were Already Falling Before the Vote
Prediction-market traders had already begun moving away from the Clarity Act before senators formally voted.
Earlier Tuesday, the probability of the bill becoming law fell from roughly 31% to 19% as reports emerged that negotiations were struggling.
The failed vote accelerated that repricing.
The current 7% probability means the market has lost roughly three-quarters of its implied chance in a matter of hours.
That is exactly the type of catalyst-driven move that separates an event-first prediction-market story from a generic daily odds roundup.
The market is responding to a concrete legislative result.
Bitcoin Falls as Clarity Act Stalls
The legislative setback also hit cryptocurrency markets.
Bitcoin fell below $77,000 Tuesday as expectations for the bill deteriorated and dropped further following the failed vote.
Other major crypto assets and crypto-related stocks also came under pressure.
The reaction reflects the importance the industry has placed on federal market-structure legislation.
Crypto companies have argued that clearer rules could reduce regulatory uncertainty and make it easier for traditional financial institutions to expand their digital-asset businesses.
The market now sees little chance that the current Clarity Act clears all of the remaining legislative hurdles before the end of the year.
Why the Clarity Act Still Has a 7% Chance
A 7% probability is extremely low, but it is not zero.
The legislation could theoretically return if Senate leaders reopen negotiations and find a compromise capable of attracting enough bipartisan votes.
Polymarket also has separate contracts tracking whether the Senate passes the legislation by specific deadlines and how many senators might eventually support final passage.
But the path has narrowed considerably.
Congress has limited time remaining before the midterms, and lawmakers have several other major legislative priorities competing for floor time.
Any renewed attempt would also need to resolve the ethics dispute that helped derail Tuesday's vote.
That combination explains why traders now overwhelmingly favor the Clarity Act failing to become law in 2026.
How the Polymarket Clarity Act Contract Works
The primary Polymarket contract asks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, H.R. 3633, will be signed into law during 2026.
For the Yes side to win, three things must happen:
- The legislation must pass the House.
- It must pass the Senate.
- It must be signed into law by December 31, 2026.
The contract uses official government information, including Congress.gov, as its primary resolution source.
A Yes share trading around seven cents corresponds with an implied probability of roughly 7%.
If the bill ultimately becomes law within the contract's deadline, winning Yes shares settle at $1.
If it does not, they settle at $0.
Market prices can continue changing as negotiations, Senate scheduling and political developments unfold.
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The current Picks & Parlays offer provides a $20 trading bonus after an eligible new user deposits at least $10 and completes a qualifying trade.
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What Could Move Clarity Act Odds Next?
The biggest question is whether Senate leaders try to revive negotiations quickly.
A bipartisan agreement on ethics language would be the clearest reason for the probability to rebound.
Another cloture vote, a new legislative compromise or public commitments from previously opposed senators could also move the market.
The opposite is true if Congress heads toward recess without another vote scheduled.
With the midterms approaching, every week that passes reduces the amount of legislative time available before the contract's December 31 deadline.
The current 7% price reflects that calendar pressure as much as the failed vote itself.
Clarity Act Odds: The Bottom Line
Tuesday's Senate vote transformed the Clarity Act market.
The legislation was already losing support on Polymarket before the vote, falling from approximately 31% to 19%.
After the Senate failed to advance the bill 49-50, the probability collapsed again.
Polymarket now gives the Clarity Act only about a 7% chance of being signed into law in 2026.
Nearly $20 million has traded on the contract, making the move one of the day's largest event-driven prediction-market stories.
The bill can still be revived, but traders currently see a difficult path through the Senate and a rapidly shrinking congressional calendar.
Current Polymarket probability: approximately 7% for the Clarity Act to become law in 2026.
Prediction-market prices change continuously. Probabilities cited reflect available pricing at the time of writing. Promotional eligibility and terms can change. Prediction-market positions involve financial risk and may lose their full purchase value.
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