Coco Gauff US Open at 20% Before Semi Finals | Polymarket
Coco Gauff is back in the U.S. Open quarterfinals, and prediction-market traders give the former champion roughly a one-in-five chance of winning another title in New York.
Polymarket currently prices Gauff around 20% to win the 2026 women's U.S. Open.
Aryna Sabalenka remains the favorite near 38-39%, while Gauff and Elena Rybakina form the next tier of contenders.
Gauff's immediate challenge comes Wednesday against reigning French Open champion Mirra Andreeva.
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The matchup gives Gauff one particularly strong historical advantage.
She is 5-0 against Andreeva.
Follow the live women's U.S. Open championship market on Polymarket.
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Coco Gauff U.S. Open Chances Sit Around 20%
Gauff currently owns the second-largest championship probability on parts of the live Polymarket board.
Sabalenka remains clearly ahead.
But Gauff is firmly inside the small group of players the market views as realistic title threats.
That is an improvement from immediately after the tournament draw.
Picks & Parlays tracked Gauff around 16% when the bracket was released.
Gauff was closer to 16% in our post-draw U.S. Open market update.
She has since reached the final eight without dropping a set.
Gauff Faces Andreeva in Wednesday's Quarterfinal
The quarterfinal is scheduled for Wednesday's day session at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Gauff faces No. 6 seed Mirra Andreeva.
Andreeva won Roland Garros earlier this year and has developed into one of the strongest young players on tour.
The matchup history, however, belongs completely to Gauff.
The Americans has won all five previous meetings.
That includes a victory during Gauff's run to the 2023 U.S. Open championship.
Four of Gauff's five previous wins over Andreeva came during tournaments in which Gauff eventually reached the final.
That does not guarantee anything Wednesday.
It does show that Andreeva has not yet found a consistent answer for Gauff's athleticism, defense and ability to extend rallies.
Gauff Has Looked Strong in New York
Gauff reached the quarterfinals by defeating fellow American Iva Jovic 6-1, 6-4.
She converted five break points and controlled most of the match.
That victory continued a strong summer.
Gauff reached the Wimbledon semifinals and won the Cincinnati title before arriving in New York.
She is now back in the U.S. Open quarterfinals for the third time.
Her championship résumé already includes the 2023 U.S. Open title.
That experience becomes increasingly valuable as the tournament moves into its final rounds.
Sabalenka Remains the Player to Catch
Gauff's biggest obstacle in the championship market is Sabalenka.
The two-time defending champion is already through to the semifinals and currently trades around 38-39%.
That gives Sabalenka a structural advantage.
Gauff still needs to beat Andreeva just to reach the same stage.
The other women's quarterfinal on Gauff's side features Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng.
The winner of Gauff-Andreeva will meet the winner of that match in the semifinals.
That means Gauff cannot face Sabalenka until the championship match.
The bracket therefore gives Gauff a clear path, but not an easy one.
What Could Move Gauff's U.S. Open Odds?
Wednesday's quarterfinal is the obvious catalyst.
A Gauff victory would remove another player from the championship market and put her two wins from the title.
The Rybakina-Zheng result also matters.
Rybakina currently sits close to Gauff on the outright board, so her result could significantly affect how the remaining probability is distributed.
Sabalenka's semifinal against Jessica Pegula will then reshape the other side of the bracket.
Late in a Grand Slam, these markets can move quickly.
Every completed match eliminates another possible champion.
Can Gauff Win Her Second U.S. Open?
Gauff has already proven that she can handle championship pressure in New York.
She won here in 2023.
Three years later, she enters another quarterfinal with strong recent form and a matchup she has historically controlled.
The current 20% Polymarket probability still makes Gauff an underdog against the field.
It also makes her one of the tournament's leading championship candidates.
The first task is Andreeva.
If Gauff improves to 6-0 in their head-to-head series, her U.S. Open title probability could look very different by Wednesday afternoon.
How the Coco Gauff Polymarket Contract Works
The Gauff contract is part of the women's U.S. Open championship market.
A Yes price near 20 cents corresponds with an implied probability near 20%.
If Gauff wins the tournament, winning Yes contracts settle at $1.
If she is eliminated, those positions resolve at $0.
Prices can change before resolution as traders respond to results and changes in the bracket.
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The current Picks & Parlays offer provides a $20 trading bonus after an eligible $10 deposit and qualifying trade.
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Prediction-market positions can lose their full purchase value.
Coco Gauff Has Another U.S. Open Title Within Reach
Gauff is three victories away from another championship in New York.
Polymarket currently gives her approximately a 20% chance to finish the job.
The market still prefers Sabalenka.
But Gauff enters Wednesday with momentum, championship experience and a perfect 5-0 record against her quarterfinal opponent.
A sixth victory over Andreeva would put the 2023 champion back in the U.S. Open semifinals and likely move her title probability higher again.
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