Cowboys 79% to Beat Buccaneers Tonight | Kalshi Promo Code
The Dallas Cowboys enter Thursday Night Football as one of the strongest prediction-market favorites on the Week 5 board.
Kalshi currently gives Dallas approximately a 79% chance to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Tampa Bay around 21%.
The market is reacting to a matchup that has become increasingly difficult for the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 0-4 and will once again be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield because of a right thumb injury.
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Rookie Jalon Daniels will make his second consecutive start.
The Buccaneers will also be without safety Antoine Winfield Jr., cornerback Benjamin Morrison and linebacker SirVocea Dennis.
Dallas enters at 2-2 after beating Houston 34-30 on Sunday.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium.
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Cowboys Have 79% Chance to Beat Buccaneers
The current Kalshi game market strongly favors Dallas:
- Dallas Cowboys: approximately 79%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: approximately 21%
That makes Dallas a clear favorite in Thursday night's only NFL game.
Tampa Bay is still searching for its first victory of the season.
Dallas has an opportunity to move above .500 and build momentum after Sunday's road win over Houston.
Baker Mayfield Is Out for Thursday Night Football
The biggest factor affecting the matchup is Tampa Bay's quarterback situation.
Mayfield has been ruled out with a right thumb injury.
That leaves Daniels to make his second NFL start.
The rookie started Tampa Bay's 17-14 loss to Green Bay last week and now faces another difficult assignment on a short week.
Tampa Bay's offense has little time to make major adjustments between games, increasing the importance of Daniels protecting the football and keeping the Buccaneers out of obvious passing situations.
Tampa Bay Is Missing More Than Its Quarterback
Mayfield is not the only Buccaneers starter unavailable Thursday.
Tampa Bay has also ruled out Antoine Winfield Jr., Benjamin Morrison and SirVocea Dennis.
Those defensive absences matter against a Dallas offense built around Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
Winfield is one of Tampa Bay's most important defensive players and a major part of the Buccaneers' ability to disguise coverages and defend explosive plays.
The Buccaneers now have to compensate for those absences while also protecting an inexperienced quarterback.
Dak Prescott Leads Dallas Into Prime Time
Dallas enters Thursday with considerably more stability at quarterback.
Prescott has the Cowboys at 2-2 after a 34-30 victory over Houston.
Dallas has scored at least 30 points in three consecutive games and has leaned heavily on its passing offense.
That creates a difficult matchup for a Tampa Bay defense missing multiple starters in the secondary.
The Cowboys do not need Prescott to carry the entire offense.
They need him to avoid turnovers, distribute the ball efficiently and force Tampa Bay to defend the full width of the field.
Tyler Smith Returns for Cowboys
Dallas also received positive injury news before kickoff.
The Cowboys activated left guard Tyler Smith from injured reserve on Thursday.
Smith underwent thumb ligament surgery during training camp and returned to practice this week.
His return gives Dallas another experienced blocker in front of Prescott and strengthens an offensive line facing a Tampa Bay defense that may need to create pressure to keep the game close.
Smith has earned Pro Bowl honors in each of the last three seasons.
Buccaneers Need More From Jalon Daniels
Daniels does give Tampa Bay a different dimension.
His mobility can create problems outside structure and gives the Buccaneers another option in the running game.
But Dallas will try to force him into obvious passing situations.
The rookie is playing behind an offense that has struggled throughout Tampa Bay's 0-4 start.
If the Buccaneers fall behind early, Daniels could be forced to throw frequently against a Dallas defense that can attack the quarterback without worrying as much about the run.
That is the game script Tampa Bay needs to avoid.
Dallas Can Move Above .500
Thursday is also important for the Cowboys beyond a single prime-time result.
Dallas enters at 2-2.
A victory would move the Cowboys to 3-2 and give them consecutive wins heading deeper into October.
Tampa Bay faces the opposite pressure.
An 0-5 start would leave the Buccaneers with an increasingly difficult path back into the NFC playoff race.
That difference in season trajectory adds another layer to the game beyond Dallas' current prediction-market advantage.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Starts at 8:15 PM ET
Tampa Bay and Dallas kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
The game will stream nationally on Prime Video.
Dallas enters as the home favorite.
Tampa Bay enters without its starting quarterback and several important defensive pieces.
That combination has pushed the prediction market heavily toward the Cowboys.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Markets to Watch
Kalshi also offers additional markets surrounding Thursday night's game.
Dallas is favored across the main game board, while traders are also pricing game spreads, totals, team scoring and player outcomes.
Those secondary markets can move quickly once inactive lists are confirmed and trading volume increases closer to kickoff.
The main market remains the clearest signal.
Dallas is currently priced as the far more likely winner.
Kalshi Promo Code PICKS2026
Eligible new users can enter Kalshi promo code PICKS2026 when creating an account.
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Kalshi offers NFL prediction markets covering game winners, spreads, totals, scoring outcomes and player markets.
Promotion availability, qualifying requirements and geographic restrictions can vary. Users should review the current terms displayed during registration.
Dallas Is the Clear Thursday Night Favorite
The Thursday Night Football market is giving Dallas a substantial advantage.
The Cowboys currently have approximately a 79% chance to beat Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers sit around 21%.
Dallas has the healthier quarterback situation, the better start to the season and now gets Tyler Smith back on the offensive line.
Tampa Bay enters 0-4 without Mayfield and Winfield, asking a rookie quarterback to keep the season from slipping further away.
The market is making its position clear.
Dallas is expected to take care of business at home.
Prediction-market prices can change before and during games and represent current trader pricing rather than guarantees. Event-contract trading involves risk. Promotion availability, eligibility requirements and geographic restrictions apply.
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