EPL Best Bets Today: Liverpool, Arsenal & Spurs-Everton
EPL best bets today feature Liverpool -1.5 against Fulham, Under 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Everton and Arsenal -1.5 at Sunderland on Saturday's Premier League betting card.
Seven EPL matches are scheduled for Saturday, September 12, giving bettors a full slate that begins with five 10:00 a.m. ET kickoffs before Tottenham-Everton at 12:30 p.m. and Sunderland-Arsenal at 3:00 p.m.
The goal is not to bet all seven.
Three positions stand above the rest of the current Picks & Parlays matchup inventory.
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Saturday's EPL Best Bets:
- Liverpool -1.5 (+110) vs Fulham
- Tottenham vs Everton Under 2.5 (-110 to -115)
- Arsenal -1.5 (+135 to +141) at Sunderland
For the complete Saturday slate, visit the Picks & Parlays EPL picks and predictions hub.
Bettors opening a new account can also compare the latest sportsbook promo codes and welcome offers before placing Saturday's wagers.
EPL Best Bets Today for Saturday, September 12
Saturday's Premier League card offers several heavy favorites.
That does not mean the best approach is simply laying every short moneyline.
Chelsea is more than a -400 favorite against Hull.
Liverpool is around -220 against Fulham.
Arsenal is approximately -200 at Sunderland.
Those prices can make the outright winner market difficult to justify.
The stronger opportunities come from using spreads and totals to find better prices.
Liverpool -1.5 turns a substantial moneyline favorite into a plus-money wager.
Arsenal -1.5 does the same.
Tottenham-Everton provides a different angle entirely, with the Under backed by Tottenham's ongoing scoring problems and Everton's more controlled early-season profile.
The resulting card has two plus-money spread positions and one near-even-money total.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool -1.5 (+110) vs Fulham
Liverpool -1.5 at approximately +110 is the first play.
The Reds host a Fulham side that enters Saturday without a point from its opening three league matches.
Liverpool has not been flawless.
The club opened with consecutive 2-2 draws against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle before beating Ipswich 2-0.
That leaves Liverpool at 1-2-0.
Fulham is 0-0-3 after defeats to Chelsea, Sunderland and Crystal Palace.
The results already create a meaningful separation.
The offensive production does too.
Liverpool is averaging 2.00 goals per league match.
Fulham has conceded 2.33 goals per game.
That is the kind of opponent against which Liverpool's attacking depth should create opportunities to separate.
The full Liverpool vs Fulham picks and prediction also projects a 3-0 Liverpool victory and recommends the Reds -1.5.
Why Liverpool -1.5 Is Better Than the Moneyline
Liverpool is around -220 to -225 on the three-way moneyline.
That is an expensive price.
The -1.5 spread changes the risk-reward profile.
Instead of laying more than two units to win one on the moneyline, bettors can get approximately +110 by asking Liverpool to win by at least two goals.
There is obviously more risk.
A 1-0 or 2-1 Liverpool victory would cash the moneyline and lose the spread.
The matchup still gives Liverpool a realistic path to margin.
Fulham has allowed multiple goals in two of its first three league matches.
Liverpool has Alexander Isak leading the attack with three goals through the opening league sample.
Cody Gakpo has also been one of Liverpool's most productive creators, although he enters the weekend carrying a muscle concern.
The injury list is not empty.
Hugo Ekitike remains out with an Achilles injury.
Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are also unavailable, while Joe Gomez and Gakpo have been listed as doubtful.
That keeps the pick from being treated as an automatic blowout.
Liverpool still owns enough attacking quality to justify the plus-money spread against a Fulham team that has yet to earn a league point.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool -1.5 around +110.
Fulham's Underlying Numbers Create Some Risk
There is one reason not to make Liverpool -1.5 a blind confidence play.
Fulham's expected-goal numbers have been better than its record.
The Cottagers have generated roughly 1.83 expected goals per match while allowing around 1.81.
Liverpool is at approximately 1.67 xG created and 1.49 conceded.
Those figures suggest the gap between the teams may not be as large as a 1-2-0 record against an 0-0-3 record makes it appear.
That is worth acknowledging.
Fulham has created chances.
The problem is turning those underlying numbers into actual results while preventing opponents from converting at the other end.
Liverpool at Anfield is a difficult place to solve that problem.
The plus-money price on -1.5 compensates bettors for taking on the extra margin requirement.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham vs Everton Under 2.5
The second play is Tottenham vs Everton Under 2.5 goals.
Current prices are around -110 to -115.
Tottenham's attacking problems are the foundation of the wager.
Spurs have not scored a Premier League goal through their opening three matches.
They lost 3-0 to Brentford.
They lost 2-0 to Newcastle.
They then played Nottingham Forest to a 0-0 draw.
Three games.
Zero goals.
That is a remarkable start for a club normally associated with attacking soccer.
The full Tottenham vs Everton picks and prediction also makes Under 2.5 the preferred total and projects a 1-1 final score.
Tottenham's Attack Is Still Missing Important Pieces
Personnel helps explain why the Tottenham offense has struggled.
Xavi Simons is sidelined with a knee injury.
Dejan Kulusevski is also out.
Wilson Odobert remains unavailable.
James Maddison has been dealing with a shoulder issue and enters the weekend as a doubt.
Those absences remove creativity and scoring from a team that already has not found an attacking rhythm under Roberto De Zerbi.
Tottenham is still seeing plenty of the ball.
Possession has not been the problem.
The issue is turning that possession into dangerous chances and goals.
Spurs have generated roughly 1.03 expected goals per league match while conceding about 1.78.
The attack is not producing enough to justify a total that assumes three goals is the central outcome.
Everton Has Been Hard to Beat
Everton enters at 1-2-0.
The Toffees beat Crystal Palace 2-0 before drawing Bournemouth and Manchester United.
They have therefore opened the league season unbeaten.
Everton's attack is not overwhelming either.
The club has spread its scoring across several players rather than relying on one dominant finisher.
That can make Everton competitive without necessarily turning games into shootouts.
The matchup sets up naturally for a controlled game.
Tottenham needs to solve its own attacking problems.
Everton has little reason to open the match aggressively away from home against a Spurs side that has not scored.
A game tied 0-0 or 1-1 deep into the second half benefits both the tactical approach and the Under.
The current market has Over and Under 2.5 priced close to even, with the Under available around -110 to -115.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham-Everton Under 2.5 around -110 to -115.
Why We Prefer the Total Over Everton +0.5
The Picks & Parlays matchup analysis also likes Everton +0.5.
That is a defensible position.
The Toffees are unbeaten and Tottenham has yet to score.
The problem is price.
Everton +0.5 has been priced around -130 to -135.
The Under offers a similar game-script thesis at a better number.
If Tottenham's offensive problems continue, the Under benefits.
If Everton plays conservatively away from home, the Under benefits.
Even a Tottenham breakthrough does not necessarily ruin the wager.
Scores such as 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 all remain winners.
At roughly -110 to -115, that is preferable to paying heavier juice on the Everton spread.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal -1.5 (+135 to +141) at Sunderland
The third play is the most aggressive position on the card.
Arsenal -1.5 can be found around +135 to +141.
Arsenal is 3-0-0 in league play.
Sunderland enters 1-1-1.
The Gunners have also opened the season with one of the league's strongest defensive profiles.
Arsenal's early underlying numbers have them near 1.87 expected goals created per match while allowing only around 0.37 expected goals.
That defensive control is a major reason Arsenal is more than a -200 favorite on the moneyline.
The P&P matchup card recommends Arsenal -1.5 at +135 and projects a 2-0 road win.
The market has since offered prices as high as approximately +141.
That makes the spread more attractive than the expensive moneyline.
Arsenal's Defense Creates the Path to a Multi-Goal Win
Backing -1.5 is not simply a bet that Arsenal wins.
It is a bet that Sunderland struggles to contribute enough offense to keep the margin close.
Arsenal has been excellent at preventing dangerous chances.
Sunderland has been competitive but is unlikely to approach this match as if it can trade attacks with the defending champions.
The expected script is Arsenal controlling the ball while Sunderland stays compact and looks for counterattacks and set pieces.
If Arsenal scores first, Sunderland eventually has to take more risk.
That is where a 1-0 match can become 2-0.
A second Arsenal goal is all the spread needs.
The Sunderland vs Arsenal picks and prediction projects exactly that scoreline.
Arsenal Has a Short-Rest Concern
This is not a risk-free play.
Arsenal played Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday.
The Gunners won 1-0 but now have a short turnaround before traveling to the Stadium of Light.
That is why the Arsenal spread ranks third on the card rather than first.
There are defensive personnel concerns too.
William Saliba is out.
Cristhian Mosquera has been dealing with a hamstring problem.
Jurrien Timber is a doubt with a groin issue.
Those absences matter.
Arsenal's structure has still been strong enough to survive defensive rotation.
The current price also helps.
Laying -200 or worse on Arsenal's moneyline does not offer much room for error.
Getting approximately +140 on a two-goal victory gives bettors a much better return if Arsenal's territorial dominance translates into the expected scoreline.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal -1.5 around +135 to +141.
Why Chelsea -1.5 Did Not Make the Final Card
Chelsea is the biggest favorite on Saturday's slate.
The Blues are around -425 against Hull City.
Picks & Parlays recommends Chelsea -1.5.
The problem is the price.
Chelsea -1.5 has been sitting around -160.
That is a considerable amount of juice for a multi-goal spread.
Hull has also opened the season with three clean sheets.
The underlying defensive numbers suggest regression is possible, and Chelsea certainly has enough attacking talent to expose it.
At the current number, however, Liverpool -1.5 and Arsenal -1.5 provide substantially better payout structures.
Chelsea may be the most likely Saturday winner.
That does not automatically make Chelsea's spread one of the three best bets.
Why Nottingham Forest +0.5 Misses the Cut
Nottingham Forest +0.5 is another reasonable P&P recommendation.
Aston Villa has struggled to generate attacking production and Forest has been difficult to beat.
The problem again is price.
Forest +0.5 has been around -155.
That requires bettors to lay significant juice simply to cover a draw or Forest victory.
The Under 2.5 in that game is more interesting around -120, but Tottenham-Everton offers a cleaner low-scoring thesis at a better price.
The final card therefore stays at three wagers rather than adding plays simply because the slate has seven games.
Saturday Premier League Schedule
Saturday's EPL schedule begins with five matches at 10:00 a.m. ET:
- Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
- Bournemouth vs Brentford
- Chelsea vs Hull City
- Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town
- Liverpool vs Fulham
Tottenham hosts Everton at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Sunderland hosts Arsenal at 3:00 p.m. ET.
That scheduling creates an important betting consideration.
The Liverpool position must be finalized before the early slate.
Tottenham-Everton provides a second window.
Arsenal-Sunderland gives bettors the option to reassess the late play after seeing any final lineup changes.
EPL Best Bets Today: Final Saturday Card
The final three-play Premier League card is:
| Match | Best Bet | Current Price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Fulham | Liverpool -1.5 | +110 |
| Tottenham vs Everton | Under 2.5 | -110 to -115 |
| Sunderland vs Arsenal | Arsenal -1.5 | +135 to +141 |
Liverpool is the top play because the Reds can turn an expensive outright-win price into plus money against a winless Fulham side.
Tottenham-Everton Under 2.5 is the strongest total because Tottenham has gone three league matches without scoring and continues to deal with major attacking absences.
Arsenal -1.5 closes the card because the Gunners' defensive control creates a realistic path to a 2-0 type victory, while the plus-money price compensates for the short rest and defensive injuries.
Sportsbook Promo Codes for Saturday's EPL Picks
Premier League prices can differ substantially from sportsbook to sportsbook.
That matters even more on spreads.
Liverpool -1.5 at +110 is meaningfully better than the same bet at even money.
Arsenal -1.5 at +141 offers considerably more value than +125.
Totals can move as well once confirmed starting lineups are released.
Compare prices before placing a wager rather than automatically using the first available book.
You can review current sportsbook promo codes and betting offers at Picks & Parlays.
No signup promotion should be used as a reason to accept a materially worse betting line.
The best combination is a competitive number plus an offer for which the bettor is actually eligible.
EPL Best Bets Today Before Saturday Kickoff
EPL best bets today are Liverpool -1.5 at approximately +110, Tottenham-Everton Under 2.5 around -110 to -115 and Arsenal -1.5 around +135 to +141.
The three wagers attack different parts of Saturday's market.
Liverpool provides home-favorite margin at plus money.
Tottenham-Everton targets a low-scoring matchup.
Arsenal provides another plus-money favorite spread in the late match.
The numbers should be checked again Saturday morning, particularly after confirmed team sheets begin to arrive.
For every game on the board, visit the Picks & Parlays Premier League picks page before kickoff.
Odds are subject to change.
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