Fed Rate Hike Chances Hit 88% | Kalshi Promo Code
Fed rate hike chances have climbed to 88% on Kalshi just hours before the Federal Reserve announces its September interest-rate decision.
Kalshi traders currently give a 25-basis-point increase an 88% probability, compared with 13% for another hold and less than 1% for an increase larger than a quarter point.
More than $94 million has already been traded on the September Fed decision market, making Wednesday's FOMC announcement one of the largest active economics markets on the platform.
Eligible new users can access the current Kalshi signup offer with promo code PICKS2026. Terms and eligibility requirements apply.
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Fed Rate Hike Chances Reach 88% on Kalshi
The prediction market has moved heavily toward a rate increase ahead of Wednesday afternoon's announcement.
Kalshi's September FOMC market currently shows:
- 25-basis-point increase: 88%
- No change: 13%
- Increase larger than 25 basis points: less than 1%
- 25-basis-point decrease: less than 1%
The 25-basis-point contract was trading around 88 cents when checked Wednesday morning.
Kalshi also shows more than $94 million in trading volume across the September decision market.
That makes a quarter-point hike the clear market favorite entering the final hours before the Federal Reserve releases its statement.
September Fed Hike Odds Have Surged in Recent Weeks
Wednesday's 88% probability represents a major change from where traders were positioned only a few weeks ago.
After Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks in late August, Kalshi put the probability of a 25-basis-point September increase at approximately 47%.
The market moved sharply again after the August Consumer Price Index report.
Kalshi reported a 25-basis-point hike probability of 81% following the September 11 inflation release.
By Wednesday morning, that figure had climbed again to 88%.
The progression from roughly 47% in late August to 81% after CPI and 88% on decision day shows how dramatically expectations have shifted entering the September meeting.
August CPI Helped Push Fed Rate Hike Chances Higher
The latest inflation report remains one of the biggest reasons traders have moved toward a September increase.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Headline CPI was up 3.4% from a year earlier.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month and was up 2.4% year over year.
The headline inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal even as core inflation has moved considerably lower.
That combination has left policymakers facing a difficult decision.
Inflation has improved from earlier peaks, but it has not returned to target, while energy prices have continued to create pressure in several parts of the economy.
Prediction-market traders have increasingly concluded that the Fed will respond with another step toward tighter policy.
The Fed Held Rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July
The Federal Reserve enters Wednesday's meeting with its target federal funds range at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The FOMC voted 9-3 in July to leave that range unchanged.
The three dissenting members — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan — preferred an immediate 25-basis-point increase.
That July vote is important heading into September.
The disagreement was not between members calling for a cut and members calling for a hold.
Instead, three policymakers were already arguing that rates should move higher.
A 25-basis-point increase Wednesday would lift the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.
Kalshi's separate post-meeting rate market currently gives an above-3.75% upper bound an approximately 86% probability.
The September FOMC Decision Comes at 2:00 PM ET
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its September policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
This meeting also includes an updated Summary of Economic Projections.
That means traders will receive more than a simple rate decision.
The new projections will provide updated estimates for economic growth, inflation, unemployment and the future path of interest rates.
The Fed's updated dot plot could become particularly important if the committee raises rates Wednesday.
A quarter-point hike would answer the immediate September question.
It would not tell traders whether policymakers expect that move to be followed by another increase before the end of the year.
Kalshi Traders Are Already Looking Beyond September
Kalshi's own research shows that the prediction market has begun pricing a second increase later in 2026.
The market's forward rate curve has shifted from expecting one increase this year toward a path that includes a September move followed by another quarter-point increase in December.
That would put the upper end of the target range at 4.25% by the end of the year.
The September decision is therefore only the first part of Wednesday's story.
If the Fed raises rates but signals that further tightening is unlikely, the December outlook could move quickly in the opposite direction.
If the updated projections and Warsh's comments support continued tightening, the market could strengthen its expectation for another move.
What Could Move Fed Decision Odds Before 2:00 PM?
With the 25-basis-point increase already priced at 88%, there is less room for a major move before the announcement than there was earlier in September.
Late trading can still change the probability.
Additional economic information, unexpected reporting about the meeting or large orders in the prediction market can all move contract prices.
The biggest movement is likely to come immediately after the Federal Reserve publishes its decision.
If the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points, the September contract should move toward resolution and attention will shift almost immediately toward the next meeting and the year-end rate path.
A surprise hold would produce the opposite result and represent a major miss by the current prediction market.
At 13%, the hold contract is still giving that outcome a meaningful chance even though it is clearly the underdog.
How the Kalshi Fed Decision Market Works
Kalshi's September Fed contract allows traders to take positions on how the Federal Reserve will change the upper end of its target federal funds range.
The primary outcomes include a 25-basis-point increase, no change, a larger increase and rate decreases.
A trader who purchases a Yes position on the 25-basis-point increase contract receives the contract's payout if the Federal Reserve raises the upper bound of the target range by exactly 25 basis points under the market's resolution rules.
If another outcome occurs, that position does not win.
Contract prices change as traders buy and sell positions.
An 88-cent Yes price is therefore associated with a market probability of roughly 88%.
Users should review the complete contract rules before trading because the market resolves according to the specific language of the contract rather than general expectations surrounding the Fed meeting.
Trading involves financial risk, and an unsuccessful position can lose its purchase value.
How to Use Kalshi Promo Code PICKS2026
Eligible new users can access the current Kalshi signup offer using promo code PICKS2026.
- Open Kalshi through the promotional link near the top of this article.
- Create an eligible new account.
- Enter promo code PICKS2026 where required.
- Complete the current identity and eligibility requirements.
- Open the Federal Reserve or economics markets.
- Review the individual contract rules before trading.
Promotional availability and eligibility can vary by user and jurisdiction.
September FOMC Outlook
The prediction market enters Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement with a clear position.
Kalshi traders give a 25-basis-point rate increase an 88% chance shortly before the decision.
That probability has climbed dramatically from the levels seen in late August and moved higher again following the most recent inflation report.
The July FOMC vote also showed that several policymakers were already prepared to raise rates before the September meeting.
The remaining uncertainty is no longer limited to whether the Fed moves Wednesday.
The updated economic projections and Warsh's press conference will help determine whether September is viewed as a single adjustment or another step in a broader tightening cycle.
For now, the prediction market has made its call.
A quarter-point September rate increase is the overwhelming favorite.
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