FedEx St. Jude Predictions | Polymarket Promo Code
The FedExCup Playoffs begin Thursday at TPC Southwind, and Polymarket traders are not pricing the FedEx St. Jude Championship as a one-player race.
Scottie Scheffler enters as the market leader at 14%, but no golfer is carrying even a 15% probability of winning the tournament.
That leaves a wide field behind the world No. 1, with Rory McIlroy at 6%, Xander Schauffele at 5% and a cluster of contenders sitting between 2% and 4%. The tournament-winner market has generated $24,608 in total trading volume.
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Scottie Scheffler Leads the FedEx St. Jude Market at 14%
Scheffler is the clear favorite on the current Polymarket board, but his 14% probability still leaves the majority of the market spread across the rest of the field.
His contract shows $1,241 in displayed individual volume.
Rory McIlroy sits at 6%, while Xander Schauffele is priced at 5%. Schauffele has drawn considerably more activity, with $6,123 in displayed volume, the largest individual total among the leading names visible on the current board.
That distinction matters.
The displayed probability tells us where the market currently prices an outcome. Volume tells us how much actual trading activity has occurred around that contract.
Steven Fisk's 11% Requires Context
One number on the board stands out immediately.
Steven Fisk is displayed at 11%, technically making him the second-highest probability behind Scheffler.
But the contract shows only $5 in individual trading volume.
That makes the 11% number much less useful as a measure of broad market conviction than Scheffler's 14%, McIlroy's 6% or Schauffele's 5%.
Thinly traded prediction markets can display percentages that move sharply on very little activity.
For that reason, Fisk's number is better treated as a live market price than as evidence that traders broadly consider him the second-most likely winner.
FedEx St. Jude Market Remains Wide Open
The rest of the Polymarket board reinforces how little separation exists behind Scheffler.
Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Young, Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa are all displayed around 4%.
Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Si Woo Kim sit around 3%.
Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Jackson Koivun, Chris Gotterup, J.J. Spaun, Michael Thorbjornsen and Ryan Gerard are among the golfers clustered around 2%.
That shape creates a very different market from an event where one player carries a 25% or 30% probability.
Scheffler is favored, but the market is still assigning the overwhelming majority of the win probability elsewhere.
TPC Southwind Opens the FedExCup Playoffs
The FedEx St. Jude Championship runs from Aug. 13 through Aug. 16 at TPC Southwind in Memphis.
The course plays as a 7,288-yard par 70, and the tournament carries a $20 million purse.
This is the opening event of the FedExCup Playoffs.
The playoff field is reduced again after Memphis, with the top 50 in the FedExCup standings advancing to the BMW Championship.
That adds another layer to the week.
Players near the qualification line are not only chasing the tournament title. They are also trying to extend their seasons and secure a place in the next playoff event.
Why the First Round Could Move the Polymarket Board Quickly
With Scheffler at only 14% and most of the field priced in single digits, Thursday's opening round has the potential to reshape the market quickly.
A strong start from one of the 3% to 6% contenders could immediately move that golfer toward the top of the board.
The reverse is also true.
An early over-par round from Scheffler could significantly reduce a 14% pre-tournament probability because the current market does not give him enough separation to absorb a poor start without consequence.
This is where prediction markets differ from static pre-tournament forecasts.
The percentages continue to respond as new information enters the market.
Xander Schauffele Has the Most Notable Trading Activity
Schauffele's position is particularly interesting from an event-level market perspective.
His displayed probability is only 5%, but his $6,123 in individual volume is nearly five times Scheffler's displayed $1,241.
That does not automatically mean the market prefers Schauffele.
It does show that his contract has attracted significant attention despite a substantially lower implied probability.
Cameron Young has also generated more than $2,000 in displayed volume at 4%, while several golfers around him show little or no individual activity.
Those differences are important when evaluating the board because not every displayed percentage carries the same amount of market participation behind it.
Rory McIlroy Sits at 6%
McIlroy is the next established star behind Scheffler on the current board.
Polymarket displays him at 6% to win the tournament.
That leaves a considerable gap between McIlroy and Scheffler, but it also reinforces how fragmented the market becomes once the favorite is removed.
McIlroy at 6%, Schauffele at 5% and several golfers at 4% means there is no clear consensus challenger.
The market is effectively saying Scheffler is the single most likely winner while remaining highly uncertain about who would replace him if he does not win.
How the FedEx St. Jude Polymarket Works
Polymarket prices event contracts between zero and one dollar, with the displayed market percentage representing the current implied probability assigned by traders.
A player at 14% is therefore being priced at roughly a 14% probability of winning at that moment.
Prices can change throughout the tournament as players move up or down the leaderboard and traders buy or sell positions.
Users should review the specific tournament market rules before trading, including how withdrawals, ties or other unusual outcomes are handled.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Outlook
The most important takeaway from the current Polymarket board is not that Scheffler is the favorite.
That part is straightforward.
The more interesting signal is how little of the overall probability belongs to him.
At 14%, Scheffler leads a tournament market that still assigns roughly 86% of the winning probability somewhere else.
McIlroy and Schauffele are the most recognizable challengers near the top, while Fleetwood, Young, Burns and Morikawa form the next group.
The unusual 11% displayed beside Fisk should be viewed cautiously because only $5 in individual volume sits behind it.
With the FedExCup Playoffs beginning at TPC Southwind and no player holding even a 15% probability, the pre-tournament market is pointing toward a championship with a clear favorite but no overwhelming one.
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