Frances Tiafoe US Open Chances After Upset | Kalshi Live Odds
Frances Tiafoe US Open chances are at 5% on Kalshi after the American knocked former champion Daniil Medvedev out of the tournament in straight sets Sunday.
Tiafoe beat Medvedev 7-6(1), 6-4, 7-6(6) to reach the U.S. Open quarterfinals for the fourth time in his career. His reward is an all-American matchup with Alex Michelsen, and Kalshi currently gives Tiafoe a 60% chance to win Tuesday's quarterfinal.
The title market remains a much steeper climb. Tiafoe is around 5% to win the tournament, behind the leading contenders, but Sunday's result removed a former U.S. Open champion from his path and sent Tiafoe into the final eight without playing a fourth set.
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Frances Tiafoe US Open Chances Sit at 5% on Kalshi
Tiafoe is still an outsider in the championship market despite reaching the quarterfinals.
Kalshi's U.S. Open men's winner board currently has Tiafoe priced around 5%, while the outright market has generated more than $25 million in trading volume.
That number puts his position in perspective.
Tiafoe has reached the stage where only three victories separate him from a Grand Slam title, but the market still views that path as difficult enough to give him only a single-digit championship probability.
His immediate situation looks considerably better.
Kalshi gives Tiafoe a 60% chance to defeat Michelsen in their quarterfinal, compared with 40% for the 22-year-old.
That makes Tiafoe a modest favorite to reach another U.S. Open semifinal without treating him as one of the tournament's dominant championship favorites.
Those are two different questions.
Tiafoe can be favored to win his next match while still facing long odds to survive three more rounds against the strongest players left in the draw.
Tiafoe Finally Solves Daniil Medvedev in New York
Sunday's victory matters because Medvedev had controlled their matchup for years.
Tiafoe entered the fourth round with only one victory in seven previous meetings against the 2021 U.S. Open champion.
He left Louis Armstrong Stadium with a straight-sets win.
Tiafoe took the opening-set tiebreak 7-1, broke through in the second and then survived another tiebreak in the third to close the match without allowing Medvedev a route back into it.
The result also extended one of the stranger streaks at this tournament.
Tiafoe is now 10-0 for his career at Louis Armstrong Stadium.
All four of his victories at this year's U.S. Open came on Armstrong, including the biggest one against Medvedev.
The quarterfinal will move him to Arthur Ashe Stadium, but Tiafoe has plenty of history there as well.
He reached the U.S. Open semifinals in both 2022 and 2024 and has now made the tournament's second week in six of the last seven years.
New York has consistently produced his best Grand Slam tennis.
The Medvedev victory added another significant result to that record.
It also came after Tiafoe entered the match as the underdog. Kalshi had Medvedev around 60% and Tiafoe around 40% before the fourth-round meeting.
This time, the 40% side won in three sets.
Kalshi Gives Tiafoe a 60% Chance Against Alex Michelsen
The next matchup looks much different.
Tiafoe will face Michelsen in an all-American quarterfinal Tuesday, and Kalshi currently prices Tiafoe at 60% to advance.
Michelsen sits at 40%.
The market favors Tiafoe, but Michelsen has given traders very little reason to dismiss his run.
He has not dropped a set in four matches.
Michelsen beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(6), 6-4, 6-4 in the fourth round, hitting 44 winners and 12 aces to reach the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of his career.
He also arrives with less accumulated Grand Slam experience than Tiafoe but significantly more momentum than his pre-tournament position suggested.
Tiafoe does have the head-to-head advantage.
The two Americans have met twice previously, and Tiafoe won both matches.
That experience, combined with Tiafoe's deeper history in New York, helps explain why Kalshi has him favored despite Michelsen's spotless set record.
The quarterfinal creates a straightforward next catalyst for both markets.
A Tiafoe victory would guarantee another American man in the U.S. Open semifinals and should increase his outright championship probability.
A Michelsen win would end Tiafoe's run while extending one of the tournament's biggest breakout performances.
Can Tiafoe Turn 5% Into Another U.S. Open Semifinal?
Tiafoe has been here before.
He reached the semifinals in 2022, when he upset Rafael Nadal during his run, and returned to the final four in 2024.
What he has not done is get through the semifinal and play for the title.
That is the gap this run is now testing.
American men's tennis has also been waiting much longer for a Grand Slam breakthrough.
No American man has won a major singles title since Andy Roddick captured the U.S. Open in 2003.
Tiafoe has repeatedly been one of the players closest to ending that drought in New York.
Sunday's win over Medvedev keeps that possibility alive again.
For now, the market is separating the immediate opportunity from the larger one.
Tiafoe is a 60% favorite against Michelsen but only around 5% to win the U.S. Open.
Beat Michelsen, and the second number becomes the one worth watching.
For more tournament coverage, visit the latest tennis picks and predictions at Picks & Parlays.
Tiafoe entered Sunday having lost six of his previous seven matches against Medvedev.
He left with a straight-sets victory and another U.S. Open quarterfinal.
Now he is favored to beat Michelsen.
The championship market is not convinced yet.
Tuesday gives Tiafoe the chance to change that.
Prediction-market prices can change in real time. Percentages cited reflect available market prices at the time of writing. Kalshi promotional terms, trading requirements and eligibility can also change.
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