Joshua Van 56% to Beat Pantoja at UFC 331 | Kalshi Promo Code
Kalshi currently prices Van at approximately a 56% chance to win, with Pantoja around 44%. The main fight market has generated approximately $1.29 million in volume.
Polymarket shows almost the same split, with Van around 57% and Pantoja around 44% on more than $94,000 in trading volume.
The UFC's listed sportsbook line also favors Van at -130, with Pantoja at +110.
Saturday's fight gives Van a chance to remove some of the uncertainty that followed their unusual first meeting, while Pantoja gets an opportunity to reclaim the championship he lost because of an injury only 26 seconds into the fight.
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Van vs Pantoja 2 Odds: Joshua Van at 56%
The live prediction markets make Joshua Van a relatively narrow favorite rather than an overwhelming one.
Kalshi's current UFC 331 market lists:
- Joshua Van: approximately 56%
- Alexandre Pantoja: approximately 44%
- Market volume: approximately $1.29 million
Those prices represent current prediction-market trading rather than a guarantee about the fight's outcome.
Polymarket is closely aligned:
- Joshua Van: approximately 57%
- Alexandre Pantoja: approximately 44%
- Volume: approximately $94,000
The close agreement between the two platforms gives Saturday's title fight a clear market narrative: Van is favored, but traders still give the former champion a substantial chance of regaining the belt.
UFC 331 Sportsbook Odds Also Favor Van
The UFC's official event page lists traditional fight odds of:
- Joshua Van: -130
- Alexandre Pantoja: +110
That line also points to a competitive fight rather than a one-sided championship matchup.
Both fighters successfully made championship weight Friday at 125 pounds, clearing the final major hurdle before Saturday's main event.
Why Van vs Pantoja 2 Is Happening
The first fight produced one of the strangest UFC title changes in recent memory.
Van challenged Pantoja for the flyweight championship at UFC 323 in December.
Just 26 seconds into the opening round, Pantoja suffered a dislocated left elbow while attempting to brace himself during a takedown sequence.
The injury immediately ended the fight and made Van the new UFC flyweight champion.
The result officially went into the record books as a Van victory, but the unusual ending left an obvious question unanswered.
Van had won the title, but the two fighters never really got the opportunity to determine how their styles would match up over a normal championship fight.
Nine months later, UFC 331 provides the rematch.
Joshua Van Has Already Defended the Belt
Van has not simply waited for Pantoja to return.
The 24-year-old successfully defended his championship against Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328 in May.
Taira's wrestling caused Van problems early, but the champion increasingly took control as the fight progressed.
Van eventually stopped Taira with strikes at 1:32 of Round 5 to record his first successful title defense.
That performance matters when evaluating the rematch.
The first Pantoja fight provided almost no useful evidence about how Van would perform over five rounds against an elite grappler.
The Taira fight did.
Van was forced to work through difficult grappling positions, survive adversity and continue producing offense deep into a championship fight.
That experience gives prediction-market traders substantially more information than they had before the first meeting.
Pantoja Gets His Chance to Reclaim the Flyweight Title
Pantoja enters UFC 331 as the former champion rather than an ordinary challenger.
Before the injury against Van, Pantoja had successfully defended the UFC flyweight championship four times.
Those defenses came against Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, Kai Asakura and Kai Kara-France.
His championship run established Pantoja as one of the division's dominant fighters before the injury abruptly ended it.
That history helps explain why the live market remains competitive despite Van being the younger champion and current favorite.
A 44% prediction-market price still gives Pantoja a substantial implied chance to leave Los Angeles with the belt.
Kalshi Method-of-Victory Market Favors a Van Knockout
Kalshi also offers more specific markets on how Van vs Pantoja 2 could end.
As of Saturday, the leading method-of-victory prices include:
- Joshua Van by KO/TKO/DQ: approximately 34%
- Alexandre Pantoja by submission: approximately 25%
- Joshua Van by decision: approximately 21%
- Alexandre Pantoja by decision: approximately 16%
- Alexandre Pantoja by KO/TKO/DQ: approximately 8%
The method-of-victory market has generated more than $215,000 in volume.
Those numbers highlight the stylistic contrast in the rematch.
Van's highest individual outcome is a knockout or technical knockout.
Pantoja's strongest individual path is submission.
Kalshi Gives the Fight a 58% Chance to End Before Round 5
Kalshi's round-of-finish market also suggests traders expect a meaningful chance of a stoppage before the championship rounds are complete.
Current prices include:
- Fight ends before Round 2: 23%
- Fight ends before Round 3: 37%
- Fight ends before Round 4: 51%
- Fight ends before Round 5: 58%
Those are separate prediction-market contracts and should not be treated as traditional sportsbook probabilities that must add to 100%.
The broader method-of-finish market has knockout, technical knockout or disqualification as the most heavily priced overall finish type at approximately 45%, ahead of decision and submission.
Van's Pressure vs Pantoja's Grappling
The market's preferred methods reflect the most obvious stylistic question in the rematch.
Van has built his championship run around pressure, volume and increasingly dangerous striking.
His win over Taira showed how effectively that offense can carry into the later rounds.
Pantoja's greatest threat remains his grappling and submission game.
The former champion's ability to turn transitions into dominant positions has been a major part of his success at flyweight.
The first fight ended far too quickly to tell us which fighter could consistently impose his preferred style.
That uncertainty is one reason the rematch market remains relatively close.
UFC 331 Fight Card and Start Time
Crypto.com UFC 331 takes place Saturday, September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
The schedule is:
- Early prelims: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Prelims: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Main card: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Streaming: Paramount+ in the United States
Van vs Pantoja 2 headlines the card for the UFC flyweight championship.
The five-round co-main event features Arman Tsarukyan against Mauricio Ruffy.
The remainder of the main card includes Patricio Pitbull vs Doo Ho Choi, Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf and Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski.
How the Kalshi UFC Fight Market Works
Kalshi's Van vs Pantoja market allows traders to take positions on which fighter will officially win the bout.
A fighter trading at approximately 56 cents corresponds to an implied market probability of roughly 56%.
If the selected fighter wins under the contract's resolution rules, a winning Yes contract settles at $1.
If the other fighter wins, the contract settles at $0.
The rules also address situations such as a draw, no contest, cancellation or postponement.
Market prices can continue moving until trading closes, so the numbers displayed Saturday morning may differ from the final prices near fight time.
How to Use Kalshi Promo Code PICKS2026
Eligible new customers can access the current Kalshi signup offer using promo code PICKS2026.
- Open Kalshi using the promotional link in this article.
- Create an eligible new account.
- Enter promo code PICKS2026 where required.
- Complete the required account and identity verification.
- Search for the Van vs Pantoja UFC 331 market.
- Review the current probabilities and complete contract rules before trading.
Promotion availability and eligibility can vary by account and jurisdiction.
Prediction-market prices can also change rapidly as new trading activity arrives before the fight.
Van vs Pantoja 2 Prediction Market Outlook
Saturday's market has established Joshua Van as the favorite, but it has not written off Alexandre Pantoja.
Kalshi currently puts Van around 56% and Pantoja around 44%, while Polymarket is nearly identical at approximately 57% to 44%.
The traditional UFC-listed line tells the same story with Van at -130 and Pantoja at +110.
Unlike their first meeting, both fighters arrive Saturday with a chance to settle the championship question over a full fight.
Van has since proven he can defend the title through adversity.
Pantoja gets the opportunity to reclaim the championship he lost through an injury before the original matchup ever truly developed.
That makes UFC 331 more than a normal title defense.
It is effectively the fight Van and Pantoja were supposed to have the first time.
Kalshi fight probability: Van approximately 56%, Pantoja approximately 44% Polymarket probability: Van approximately 57%, Pantoja approximately 44% UFC-listed odds: Van -130, Pantoja +110 Championship: UFC Flyweight Title Event: Crypto.com UFC 331 Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026 Main card: 9:00 p.m. ET Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles Streaming: Paramount+
Prediction-market prices represent current trader pricing and can change at any time. They are not guarantees of a fight result. Trading involves risk, and users should review all contract rules and eligibility requirements before participating.
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