Liberty Upset Lynx as 29% Underdog | Kalshi Promo Code
The New York Liberty produced the biggest surprise of the opening day of the 2026 WNBA playoffs.
Kalshi traders gave New York only about a 29% chance to beat Minnesota in Game 1, while the top-seeded Lynx entered around 71%.
The Liberty flipped that market with a 91-75 road victory.
Breanna Stewart scored 34 points as New York took a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three first-round series and immediately changed the playoff picture surrounding the championship favorite.
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The result stands out even on a Sunday when every first-round winner built a significant margin.
Las Vegas beat Indiana 102-85. Atlanta defeated Washington 92-77. Golden State closed the night with a 104-80 win over Dallas.
But New York was the only lower seed to win, and it did so against the team that entered the postseason as the clear WNBA championship favorite.
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WNBA Playoff Odds Shift After Liberty Upset
Minnesota entered Game 1 with roughly a 71% win probability on Kalshi.
New York was around 29%.
The difference made the Liberty victory the clearest prediction-market upset of the opening playoff slate.
Minnesota had also entered the series as a substantial favorite to advance. Pre-series Kalshi pricing put the Lynx around 77% to move on and the Liberty near 24%.
New York has now taken away Minnesota's home-court advantage with one result.
The first round uses a best-of-three format, so the Liberty need only one more victory to eliminate the No. 1 seed.
Game 2 moves to New York on Tuesday night.
Breanna Stewart Scores 34 in Game 1
Stewart drove the upset with 34 points.
The performance gave New York the offensive centerpiece it needed against a Minnesota team that spent most of the regular season separating itself from the rest of the league.
The Liberty did not merely survive a close finish.
They won by 16 points on the road.
That matters when assessing what happened to the series. New York entered as an underdog largely because Minnesota had the league's best record and home-court advantage throughout the postseason.
The Liberty have now demonstrated that the matchup itself may be less one-sided than the seeding suggested.
New York also beat Minnesota during the regular season, including a September victory in Minneapolis.
Game 1 reinforced that this particular matchup has been more competitive than the overall standings implied.
Lynx Still Favored in Game 2
The next question is whether Minnesota responds Tuesday.
Early Game 2 markets still make the Lynx the favorite despite Sunday's loss.
Traditional betting markets have Minnesota around a small road favorite, with New York receiving approximately 2.5 points in early lines.
That creates an unusual setup.
The Liberty lead the series.
They are returning home.
And they are still being priced as the underdog in the next game.
For Minnesota, Game 2 is an elimination game.
For New York, it is an opportunity to finish the upset without returning to Minneapolis.
Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday at Barclays Center.
Las Vegas Takes 1-0 Lead Over Indiana
Las Vegas produced the most convincing performance of the afternoon before Golden State closed the night with an even larger margin.
The Aces beat Indiana 102-85 behind another dominant game from A'ja Wilson.
Wilson finished with 38 points and 16 rebounds as Las Vegas moved one win from the semifinals.
The result puts immediate pressure on Indiana ahead of Tuesday's Game 2.
The series shifts to Indianapolis, where the next game is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET.
Unlike New York-Minnesota, the early Game 2 market is extremely tight.
That makes Aces-Fever one of the most interesting follow-up markets after a Game 1 that was anything but close.
Golden State Scores Franchise-Record 104 Points
Golden State finished Sunday by producing the highest-scoring game in franchise history.
The Valkyries beat Dallas 104-80.
Cecilia Zandalasini led Golden State with 22 points, Gabby Williams scored 20, and Tiffany Hayes added 21 off the bench.
Golden State broke the game open with a 37-11 second quarter and led 58-31 at halftime.
The Valkyries also made 18 three-pointers.
Dallas received an efficient 21 points from Paige Bueckers, who shot 9-for-10 from the field, but the Wings could not match Golden State's depth or perimeter shooting.
Game 2 is Wednesday night in Dallas.
The Wings now need a home victory to keep their season alive.
Atlanta Beats Washington 92-77
Atlanta also protected home court in its opener.
The Dream defeated Washington 92-77 behind 26 points and five steals from Rhyne Howard.
Angel Reese added 13 points and 12 rebounds in her first career WNBA playoff game.
Atlanta entered the postseason as the No. 4 seed and took control of the series with the 15-point victory.
Game 2 moves to Washington on Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET.
Like Golden State and Las Vegas, Atlanta can advance with one more victory.
Every First-Round Series Is Now 1-0
Sunday produced four decisive results:
- New York 91, Minnesota 75
- Las Vegas 102, Indiana 85
- Atlanta 92, Washington 77
- Golden State 104, Dallas 80
The difference is where those victories occurred.
Las Vegas, Atlanta and Golden State were higher seeds defending home court.
New York went into Minnesota and beat the No. 1 seed.
That is why Liberty-Lynx is now the first-round series with the biggest change in leverage.
Minnesota can still recover.
But the Lynx can no longer afford another loss.
WNBA Game 2 Schedule
The first elimination games arrive Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Tuesday, 6:30 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
- Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty
- Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET: Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
- Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET: Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings
Indiana, Minnesota, Washington and Dallas all face the same situation.
Win Game 2 or the season ends.
New York, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Golden State can advance to the semifinals with victories.
Liberty-Lynx Is Now the Series to Watch
New York's Game 1 win is especially important because Minnesota entered the playoffs as the team with the largest championship probability.
Before the postseason began, prediction markets and sportsbooks consistently separated the Lynx from the rest of the field.
Las Vegas, Golden State and Atlanta formed the next group.
New York entered much further down the board despite its
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