NFL Week 2 Playoff Chances: Bears 61%, Seahawks 69% | Kalshi Promo Code
Seattle enters Sunday's afternoon slate with approximately a 69% chance to reach the playoffs on Kalshi.
Chicago sits at 61%, while Jacksonville is at approximately 60%.
Those teams are not simply heavy favorites or obvious longshots. Their current prices are close enough to the middle of the market that a Week 2 win or loss could produce noticeable movement in their playoff, division and championship contracts.
NFL Week 2 Playoff Chances Before Sunday's Games
Some of the more notable current Kalshi playoff probabilities include:
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- Seattle Seahawks: 69%
- Chicago Bears: 61%
- Detroit Lions: 61%
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 60%
- Dallas Cowboys: 53%
- Indianapolis Colts: 30%
- Washington Commanders: 27%
- New York Jets: 19%
Prediction-market probabilities move continuously, so these numbers represent the current Week 2 snapshot rather than fixed forecasts.
Seattle Seahawks Playoff Chances Reach 69%
Seattle has one of the strongest current markets among teams playing in Sunday's late window.
Kalshi gives the Seahawks approximately a 69% chance of making the playoffs and a 34% chance of winning the NFC West.
Seattle is also:
- 14% to win the NFC
- 7% to win the championship
The Seahawks enter Sunday 1-0 and face Arizona at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Polymarket's game market has Seattle around 66% to beat Arizona.
That creates a straightforward futures setup.
A 2-0 start could reinforce Seattle's playoff and NFC West pricing.
An upset loss to Arizona would likely create downward pressure.
Chicago Bears Sit at 61% to Make the Playoffs
Chicago also enters Sunday in a highly reactive part of the market.
Kalshi has the Bears at approximately:
- 61% to make the playoffs
- 38% to win the NFC North
- 10% to win the NFC
- 5% to win the championship
Chicago enters Week 2 at 1-0 and hosts Minnesota during the early slate.
The Bears are therefore one of the most obvious teams to monitor for a Sunday futures move.
Their playoff probability is almost evenly balanced between qualification and elimination, making each early-season result potentially meaningful to the market.
Jacksonville Jaguars Are at 60% Despite Being an Underdog Sunday
Jacksonville presents a different futures setup.
The Jaguars enter Week 2 at 1-0 and are currently around 60% to make the playoffs and 43% to win the AFC South.
But Jacksonville is an underdog at Denver.
Kalshi's game-winner market has the Broncos around 59% and Jacksonville around 41%.
That makes Jaguars–Broncos one of the more interesting combinations of game and season markets.
Jacksonville can have a better-than-even chance of reaching the postseason while still being an underdog in a specific road game.
A Jaguars win would move them to 2-0 and could materially strengthen their AFC South and playoff prices.
Detroit's Playoff Market Has Already Fallen
Detroit illustrates how quickly an early-season result can affect futures markets.
The Lions are now approximately 61% to make the playoffs, but Kalshi shows their latest move at down seven percentage points.
Detroit is also around:
- 25% to win the NFC North
- 7% to win the NFC
- 3% to win the championship
Because Detroit already played Thursday night and lost 41-31 at Buffalo, its current prices provide an example of the kind of futures movement Sunday's results can produce.
Dallas and Washington Put NFC East Futures in Play
Dallas and Washington meet Sunday afternoon with both teams entering 0-1.
Kalshi currently prices Dallas at approximately:
- 53% to make the playoffs
- 37% to win the NFC East
- 9% to win the NFC
- 5% to win the championship
Washington is considerably lower at:
- 27% to make the playoffs
- 12% to win the NFC East
- 2% to win the NFC
- 2% to win the championship
That makes the divisional matchup particularly important for Washington.
The Commanders' postseason probability already sits below 30%, so an 0-2 start could push the market significantly lower.
Polymarket currently makes Dallas approximately a 66% favorite in the game.
Indianapolis Enters Sunday Night at Only 30%
Indianapolis owns one of the more vulnerable playoff prices among Sunday teams.
Kalshi currently puts the Colts at approximately:
- 30% to reach the playoffs
- 16% to win the AFC South
- 2% to win the AFC
- Less than 1% to win the championship
Indianapolis is also approximately a 28% underdog against Kansas City on Sunday Night Football.
The combination makes the Colts one of the day's clearest high-leverage futures teams.
An upset could sharply improve their postseason position.
A loss would leave Indianapolis 0-2 ahead of a divisional matchup against Houston.
The Jets Are Already Down to 19%
New York enters Week 2 with very little prediction-market margin for error.
Kalshi has the Jets at only 19% to make the playoffs and around 7% to win the AFC East.
The Jets face Green Bay during Sunday's early window.
Because their playoff probability is already below 20%, a second loss could push the market toward true longshot territory before September is over.
A win would produce the opposite effect and could make New York one of Sunday's larger positive futures movers.
Why Week 2 Can Move NFL Futures So Quickly
A single September game does not determine a team's season.
Prediction markets, however, are constantly repricing the likelihood of future outcomes.
Moving from 1-0 to 2-0 changes the range of possible season records.
Moving from 0-1 to 0-2 does the same thing in the other direction.
Division games can matter even more because they simultaneously affect a team's own record and one of its direct rivals.
That is why teams priced between roughly 30% and 70% are particularly useful to watch during Week 2.
They have enough uncertainty remaining for one result to create meaningful movement.
How Kalshi NFL Futures Markets Work
Kalshi offers contracts on season outcomes such as:
- Making the NFL playoffs
- Winning a division
- Winning a conference
- Winning the league championship
A playoff contract trading around 60 cents represents an implied market probability of approximately 60%.
If the team qualifies under the market's official rules, a winning Yes contract settles at $1.
If it does not, the contract settles at $0.
Prices can change throughout the season.
How to Use Kalshi Promo Code PICKS2026
Eligible new users can access the current Kalshi signup offer using promo code PICKS2026.
- Open Kalshi using the promotional link in this article.
- Create an eligible account.
- Enter promo code PICKS2026 where required.
- Complete account verification.
- Open the NFL futures markets.
- Review the current probability and full contract rules before trading.
Promotion availability can vary by jurisdiction and account.
NFL Week 2 Futures Outlook
The strongest Week 2 futures stories are not necessarily the teams with the highest or lowest playoff probabilities.
They are the teams sitting in the middle of the market, where one Sunday result can materially change expectations.
Seattle enters at approximately 69% to make the playoffs.
Chicago and Detroit are both around 61%.
Jacksonville is at approximately 60%.
Dallas sits around 53%.
At the other end, Indianapolis is down to 30%, Washington is at 27% and the Jets are at 19%.
Those are the markets to watch as Week 2 unfolds.
Seattle playoff chance: 69% Chicago playoff chance: 61% Detroit playoff chance: 61% Jacksonville playoff chance: 60% Dallas playoff chance: 53% Indianapolis playoff chance: 30% Washington playoff chance: 27% Jets playoff chance: 19%
Prediction-market prices reflect current trading and can change rapidly as NFL games are played. They are not guarantees or traditional forecasts.
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