Pete Crow-Armstrong MVP Chances at 87% on Kalshi Live Odds

By: Devin Erickson-Sheehy Published 09/03/2026, 06:00 AM ET

Pete Crow-Armstrong has taken control of the 2026 National League MVP race entering September.

Kalshi currently gives the Chicago Cubs star an 87% chance to win NL MVP, while Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani has fallen to 11% in the same market.

Kalshi does not set traditional sportsbook odds. Its percentages are derived from contracts bought and sold by traders, meaning the market can move quickly as performances, injuries and other new information change expectations.

You can view the current NL MVP market on Kalshi.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong MVP Chances Reach 87%

Crow-Armstrong is now the overwhelming favorite in Kalshi's NL MVP market.

The current board has the Cubs center fielder at 87%, compared with only 11% for Ohtani. The market has attracted roughly $3.7 million in trading volume, making it one of Kalshi's more active MLB awards markets.

The gap reflects how dramatically Crow-Armstrong has strengthened his case during the second half of the season.

He secured his second consecutive 30-homer, 30-stolen base season in August and has continued adding power to an already elite combination of offense, defense and baserunning.

The biggest recent moment came Aug. 29 at Wrigley Field.

Crow-Armstrong hit three home runs in Chicago's 17-5 win over Cincinnati, recording the first three-homer game of his career and adding another signature performance to his MVP résumé.

That type of late-season performance matters because the award race is no longer being evaluated on preseason expectations. September gives voters one final month to compare complete seasons, and Crow-Armstrong has entered it with considerable momentum.

Why Has Shohei Ohtani Fallen to 11%?

Ohtani remains one of baseball's most productive hitters, but his two-way value has been limited by injuries.

The Dodgers star has not pitched in a game since July 3 while dealing with discomfort in his left knee and right biceps. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said in late August that Ohtani was not yet 100%, leaving his return to the mound uncertain entering the final month.

That does not eliminate Ohtani from MVP consideration.

He remains an elite offensive player and still has time to produce a September run capable of changing the race. But the biggest advantage in his MVP profile was supposed to be the combination of high-level hitting and pitching.

With his pitching workload interrupted, Crow-Armstrong's all-around position-player season has become increasingly difficult for the market to ignore.

Kalshi's 87%-11% split reflects that change.

What Could Change the NL MVP Market?

The race is not mathematically over, and prediction-market prices can change quickly.

A prolonged Crow-Armstrong slump would reopen the door. So would a major September surge from Ohtani, particularly if the Dodgers are able to get him back on the mound without compromising his offense.

Crow-Armstrong also has another potential milestone in front of him.

After already reaching 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases for the second consecutive season, a run toward a 40-40 season would give him another headline accomplishment during the final weeks of voting.

The Cubs' position in the National League race will also keep his performances in high-profile games throughout September.

For more daily baseball analysis, visit the latest MLB picks and predictions at Winners & Whiners.

Kalshi NL MVP Live Odds

As of the latest market check, Kalshi lists:

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 87%
Shohei Ohtani: 11%
Tie or co-winners: 3%

Those percentages will continue moving as September results come in.

For now, the prediction market is sending a clear message: Crow-Armstrong has moved from MVP contender to commanding favorite.

Current Pete Crow-Armstrong MVP chance: 87% on Kalshi.

Prediction-market prices can change at any time. Trading involves risk, and users should review market rules and eligibility requirements before participating.

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