Will Carlos Alcaraz Win the 2026 U.S. Open? | Polymarket Live Odds
Carlos Alcaraz enters U.S. Open Fan Week as the clear favorite to win the men's singles title, with Polymarket traders currently giving the defending champion roughly a 35% chance of lifting the trophy again in New York.
The 2026 men's U.S. Open winner market at Polymarket has shifted significantly after world No. 1 Jannik Sinner withdrew Friday because of a right-knee injury.
Alcaraz now sits well ahead of the rest of the field. Alexander Zverev is the second choice at approximately 20%, while Novak Djokovic is around 11% and Ben Shelton is near 8%.
More than $9 million has already been traded across the overall tournament market.
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The unusual part of Alcaraz's position is that the favorite has not played a competitive match since April.
He confirmed Thursday that he will return at the U.S. Open following a four-month absence caused by a right-wrist injury.
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Carlos Alcaraz U.S. Open Chances Sit Near 35%
Alcaraz currently owns the largest implied probability in the men's U.S. Open market.
At roughly 35%, traders are still saying it is more likely that someone else wins the tournament than Alcaraz.
They are also saying no individual challenger is particularly close to him.
Zverev sits around 20%.
Djokovic is near 11%.
Shelton is around 8%.
Taylor Fritz is also among the next tier of contenders.
That separation became considerably more important after Sinner withdrew.
Sinner entered the week as the world No. 1 and would ordinarily have been one of the two dominant names in any major-championship futures market involving Alcaraz.
His absence removes the player who faced Alcaraz in last year's U.S. Open final and leaves the defending champion with a much clearer position at the top of the board.
Jannik Sinner Withdrawal Reshapes the U.S. Open
Sinner announced Friday that he will miss the tournament because his injured right knee has not recovered sufficiently.
The Italian has been sidelined since winning Wimbledon and had already withdrawn from the Canadian Open and Cincinnati during the North American hard-court swing.
His withdrawal has consequences throughout the men's draw.
Alcaraz no longer has to account for his biggest recent rival.
Zverev moves into a more prominent contender position.
Djokovic has another opening to chase a record 25th Grand Slam singles championship.
American players including Shelton and Fritz also gain a more realistic route through a draw without the world No. 1.
The effect is particularly noticeable because Alcaraz and Sinner had dominated recent major championships when healthy.
Now only one of them will be in New York.
Alcaraz Is Returning From a Four-Month Wrist Injury
Alcaraz's status as the market favorite does not mean his outlook is uncomplicated.
The Spaniard has not played an ATP Tour match since April.
A right-wrist injury forced him out of Barcelona and eventually kept him out of the French Open, Wimbledon and the major North American hard-court events leading into New York.
Alcaraz confirmed his return on Aug. 20.
That announcement answered the most basic question surrounding his U.S. Open participation.
It did not answer how his wrist will respond to the demands of a best-of-five-set Grand Slam tournament after such a long absence.
That is the biggest reason his current 35% probability remains interesting.
A fully healthy defending champion with Sinner removed from the field might reasonably be expected to command even more market confidence.
Instead, traders are balancing an easier field against four months of competitive inactivity.
Alcaraz Was 22-3 Before the Injury
The injury interrupted an outstanding start to Alcaraz's season.
He went 22-3 over his first four months of 2026 and won the Australian Open and Doha titles.
The Australian Open victory completed his career Grand Slam and made him the youngest man to win singles championships at all four major tournaments.
Alcaraz also entered the year as the defending U.S. Open champion after beating Sinner in the 2025 final.
His last competitive appearance came in Barcelona in April.
That gives traders two very different pieces of evidence.
The pre-injury version of Alcaraz looked like the most dangerous major-championship player in the world.
The current version has not yet been tested in competition.
U.S. Open Fan Week gives him an opportunity to practice on site and continue rebuilding match readiness, but practice sessions cannot replicate a five-set match.
Alexander Zverev Is the Closest Challenger
Zverev has emerged as the clear second choice on Polymarket.
His probability sits around 20%, leaving a significant gap between him and Alcaraz but also separating him from the rest of the field.
That position makes sense after Sinner's withdrawal.
Zverev already has experience reaching the U.S. Open final and enters this year's tournament as one of the highest-ranked healthy players in the men's field.
He also has a much more conventional preparation profile than Alcaraz.
The market therefore presents two different cases at the top.
Alcaraz has the higher ceiling, the defending-champion résumé and the strongest recent major record when healthy.
Zverev has fewer immediate questions about returning from a four-month competitive absence.
The draw could further change that comparison when it is released Thursday.
Novak Djokovic Still Has a Path at 11%
Djokovic remains another major factor.
Polymarket currently gives him approximately an 11% chance to win the tournament.
The 39-year-old is chasing his 25th Grand Slam singles title, which would move him beyond Margaret Court for the outright all-time record.
Sinner's withdrawal helps Djokovic for the same reason it helps everyone else near the top of the market.
One of the most difficult possible opponents is gone before the draw is made.
Djokovic's price remains well below Alcaraz because traders are accounting for age, recent results and the physical demands of winning seven best-of-five matches.
His experience in New York prevents him from being treated like a conventional longshot.
Ben Shelton Leads the American Contenders
Shelton is also sitting near the top of the Polymarket board at approximately 8%.
The American has already shown that he can make deep runs in New York and will again have a significant home-crowd advantage.
Fritz is another American carrying a meaningful futures price.
The United States has not produced a men's Grand Slam singles champion since Andy Roddick won the 2003 U.S. Open.
A field without Sinner gives this year's American group another opportunity to end that drought.
The obstacle remains Alcaraz.
If he returns close to his pre-injury level, the defending champion remains the player every other contender may eventually have to beat.
U.S. Open Fan Week Begins Before the Main Draw
The 2026 U.S. Open officially begins with Fan Week on Aug. 23.
Main-draw singles play does not begin until Aug. 30.
The men's singles draw will be revealed Aug. 27.
That timing matters for the futures market.
The draw can materially change a player's route to the championship before anyone plays a main-draw point.
A favorable section could strengthen Alcaraz's position.
A difficult early path or a cluster of dangerous opponents could reduce it.
His physical condition during Fan Week will also receive unusually close attention because this is his first tournament since April.
Any indication that the wrist remains limited could move the market quickly.
How the Polymarket U.S. Open Winner Market Works
Polymarket lists separate contracts for the players who can win the 2026 U.S. Open men's singles championship.
A 35-cent Yes price corresponds roughly with a 35% implied probability.
If Alcaraz officially wins the tournament, winning Yes shares settle at $1.
If another player wins, the Alcaraz Yes contract resolves at $0.
The market can continue moving throughout Fan Week and the tournament as traders react to the draw, injuries and match results.
Once a player can no longer win the tournament under the official rules, that player's contract can resolve No.
The U.S. Open serves as the primary resolution source.
Will Carlos Alcaraz Win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Alcaraz has the strongest case in the field, but his current probability reflects the uncertainty surrounding his return.
Sinner is out.
Alcaraz is the defending champion.
He was 22-3 before the wrist injury stopped his season and had already won the Australian Open.
Those factors explain why traders have made him the clear favorite.
Four months without a competitive match explain why the market stops around 35% rather than treating the tournament as his to lose.
The next major checkpoint comes Thursday when the draw is revealed.
After that, the biggest question becomes physical rather than theoretical.
Alcaraz has confirmed that he will be in New York.
Now he has to show that the player returning to the court is close to the one who left it in April.
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