Zverev US Open Chances After Alcaraz Exit | Polymarket Odds
Carlos Alcaraz is out of the U.S. Open, and Alexander Zverev is suddenly the favorite to win the tournament.
Polymarket currently gives Zverev approximately a 44% chance of winning the 2026 men's singles title ahead of Wednesday night's quarterfinal against Botic van de Zandschulp.
Ben Shelton is close behind at roughly 36% after eliminating Alcaraz in a five-set thriller.
Frances Tiafoe sits around 10%, while the remaining contenders are all in the low single digits.
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More than $23 million has been traded across the men's championship market.
Follow the live 2026 men's U.S. Open winner market on Polymarket.
Eligible new users can deposit $10 and receive a $20 trading bonus after a qualifying trade with Polymarket promo code PICKS2026. Eligibility, geographic restrictions and promotional terms apply.
Zverev U.S. Open Chances Reach 44%
Zverev's rise to the top of the championship board is directly connected to the biggest result of the tournament.
Alcaraz entered the quarterfinals as the favorite.
Then Shelton beat him.
Removing the defending champion opened a huge percentage of the men's championship market and made Zverev the highest-priced active player.
Zverev now sits around 44%.
Shelton is the only player close to him.
That is a dramatic change from immediately after the draw, when Picks & Parlays tracked Zverev around 23%.
Our post-draw U.S. Open market had Zverev near 23%.
His probability has nearly doubled as the tournament has progressed.
Zverev Still Has to Win His Quarterfinal
There is an important catch.
Zverev is the market favorite without having reached the semifinals yet.
He faces Botic van de Zandschulp in Wednesday night's Arthur Ashe Stadium quarterfinal.
The match is scheduled to open the night session.
Van de Zandschulp arrives after one of the tournament's most exhausting victories.
He came back from two sets down to defeat Arthur Gea in five hours and 13 minutes, the fourth-longest U.S. Open match since the introduction of the tiebreak.
Zverev has had a much cleaner recent path.
After needing five sets in each of his first two matches, he defeated Alejandro Tabilo and Luciano Darderi in straight sets.
That difference in workload is one reason Zverev enters Wednesday in such a strong position.
Zverev Has Been the Most Consistent Man at the Majors
Zverev's current championship price is not only about Alcaraz losing.
His 2026 season has been exceptional.
Zverev won his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros in June.
He then reached the Wimbledon final.
He also made the Australian Open semifinals earlier in the year.
Zverev is the only man to reach at least the quarterfinals at all four Grand Slam tournaments in 2026.
He entered the U.S. Open quarterfinals with a 22-2 record at the majors this season.
He has also collected 50 tour-level victories, the most of any ATP player in 2026.
Those numbers make him a logical favorite once Alcaraz is removed from the draw.
Shelton Is Now Zverev's Biggest Market Rival
Shelton's overnight move creates an interesting championship race.
The American is already through to the semifinals after defeating Alcaraz.
Zverev still has to advance.
That is why the gap between them is relatively small despite Zverev's stronger season-long résumé.
If Zverev beats van de Zandschulp, his championship probability could increase again.
If the top seed is upset, Shelton would immediately become the strongest remaining market candidate.
That makes Wednesday night's quarterfinal highly relevant even for traders who are not taking a position on the individual match.
Zverev Is Trying to Win a Second Major in 2026
Winning in New York would give Zverev two Grand Slam titles in the same season.
It would also complete unfinished business at the U.S. Open.
Zverev reached the championship match here in 2020 and came within two points of the title before losing to Dominic Thiem.
Six years later, he returns to the latter stages as a Grand Slam champion rather than a player still trying to prove he can win one.
That psychological difference matters.
The question is no longer whether Zverev can win a major.
He already has.
Now the question is whether he can turn the best Grand Slam season of his career into a second championship.
How the Zverev Polymarket Contract Works
The Zverev contract resolves Yes if he wins the 2026 U.S. Open men's singles title.
A price around 44 cents represents an implied probability of approximately 44%.
If Zverev wins the tournament, winning Yes positions settle at $1.
If he is eliminated, they resolve at $0.
The market remains active throughout the tournament, so the percentage can change significantly after each match.
Wednesday night's quarterfinal is the next major catalyst.
Polymarket Promo Code PICKS2026
Eligible new users can use Polymarket promo code PICKS2026 where available.
The current Picks & Parlays offer provides a $20 trading bonus after an eligible $10 deposit and qualifying trade.
Eligibility, geographic restrictions and promotional terms apply.
Prediction-market positions can lose their full purchase value.
Is Zverev Now the U.S. Open Favorite?
Yes, according to the current Polymarket championship board.
Zverev sits around 44%, ahead of Shelton near 36%.
Alcaraz's elimination transformed the men's tournament overnight.
Now Zverev has an opportunity to take advantage.
He still needs to defeat van de Zandschulp on Wednesday night, but the market sees the top seed as the player most likely to leave New York with the championship.
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