Sean's Free Pick
(NFL) New England vs. Atlanta, 09/29/2013 4:30 PM, Score: 30 - 23
Point Spread: -1.00 | -117.00 Atlanta (Home)
Result: Loss
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

As of this writing I am seeing the Falcons as -1 and as high as -2 point favorites in this Sunday Night match-up.

I will tell you right from the jump here that when I did my division break-downs for this season, I had the Dolphins ending the Patriots reign at the top of the AFC East. Basically, I just feel that New England has not done enough to get enough talent around Brady this year. Let's be honest. Yes, they are 3-0. They had a come from behind victory on the road over the Bills and a rookie QB. Then on a short week, they barely eke out a win over another rookie QB and a Jets team that I think has some of the worse offensive skill position players in the league. And last week they get by a Tampa team that was clearly fed up and tired of their QB, as they just benched him for the remainder of the year in favor of their newly drafted QB. So what exactly have the Pats done? I don't think much of anything. Even if Gronk or Amendola are healthy enough to play, I just can't see New England getting a win here.

Now we move on the Falcons. I guess a bit of disappointing start for them. They had a close loss to the Saints on the road, and they were dealt a real tough one last week over Miami. They were missing some key guys last week in that road game, but I feel even at full strength, the Dolphins would have given them all they could handle. So Brady and the Pats come to the Dome where HC Mike Smith has done nothing but win here 34-7 SU record during the regular season. A lot of that credit is due to his quarterback Matt Ryan. He is pretty much blessed with one of the top WR combo's in the league with Roddy White and Julio Jones. Add in a Hall of Famer safety blanket at TE in Tony Gonzalez and this offense is explosive, especially when playing at home.

My Final Thoughts
The Falcons do have a couple injuries on both sides of the ball. But that is no excuse here. They are 1-2 on the year. They didn't lose their 2nd game last year until December. This is pretty much a ‘must win' type game for them. Matt Ryan is a huge step up in class for the Patriots who faced two rookies and now a benchwarmer their last three games. Finally, let's not forget that for as great as Brady has been in his career, this offense has yet to put up even 24 points on the year. I will take the small home favorites here and back the ATLANTA FALCONS -2 as my Sunday night selection.