Point Spread: 7.00 | -125.00 NY Jets (Away)
Too many points here in our opinion. The average line in this AFC East series over the last 21 meetings has been 3.5 points. Only 3 times in the last 21 meetings has the line been 7 or higher. We’re getting close here. Buffalo’s offense isn’t potent enough to be laying a full TD in a division rivalry game. They scored 20 points or less in 11 of their 17 games last year. Their QB Allen is the most inaccurate passer in the NFL. He was dead last in the NFL in completion percentage among starters and also threw the highest percentage of uncatchable passes. He’s facing a Jets defense that wasn’t talked about much last year but is very good. They ranked in the top 5 in YPP defense and top 7 in YPG defense. Very comparable numbers to the Buffalo defense which was considered one of the best in the NFL. In their 2 meetings last year the Bills scored a grand total of 23 points. Tough to cover a spread near 7 when you struggle to score. The Jets offensive numbers were bad last year. No doubt about it. However, when QB Darnold was playing, they weren’t terrible. They actually had a winning record (7-6) when Darnold was the starter averaging 20 PPG. In the 3 games he missed due to injury the Jets were 0-3 and barely averaged 7 PPG. We think the NY offense will do enough to keep this one close. Lastly, we love looking at divisional underdogs early in the season. They’ve been very successful. Especially if the game is in week 1 and that divisional dog did not make the playoffs last year (Jets) and they are facing a division team that did make the playoffs last year (Bills). In that situation the dog us 23-6 ATS dating back to 2003. We expect a down to the wire game here and we like the Jets plus the points.