Money Line: 118.00 Philadelphia (Home)
Rick Porcello starts for the Mets here and he is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his 9 starts this season with the opposition batting .318 against him. He'll be facing the Phillies for the 3rd time already this season which won't help him and he gave up 4 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings when he faced them at Citizens Bank Park last month. The Phillies enter this game off 3 straight losses but only have had one losing streak go longer than 3 games this season. In other words, odds favor Philadelphia snapping the streak tonight and this is particularly true with Jake Arrieta on the mound. With Wheeler and Howard hurt, Arrieta joins Nola as being extremely important to the staff and the veteran has stepped up. The Phillies let his last start slip away as they were up 6-3 after he exited the game. Now he faces the same Mets team he beat in the start that preceded that. Arrieta held them to 2 earned runs in 7 innings while striking out 7. Now he gets them at home where he has historically pitched well since coming to the Phillies. Last season he held opponents to a .256 batting average at home and had a 5-3 record. The prior season Arrieta had a 3.64 ERA and held opponents to a .238 batting average in his home outings. Arrieta had a rare poor outing at home in his most recent start in Philly but each of his other 3 starts since late August have been solid with a total of just 6 earned runs allowed in nearly 18 innings spanning those 3 outings. More of the same here and, per our computer math model, the Phillies bats pound Porcello in this one. The result is a home blowout and that makes the home dog a value play here. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.