Ross’ NFL 10* Game of the Year
(NFL) Dallas vs. Minnesota, 11/20/2022 4:25 PM, Score: 40 - 3
Money Line: -119.00 Dallas (Away)
Result: Win
Dallas @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET
Game# 471-472
Play On: Dallas -120 (ML) (10*)

This line jumped right off the board at me when it opened as a pick on Sunday night and quickly ascended to Dallas being a 1.5-point road favorite. Why did my reaction occur? Well, Minnesota is 8-1, Dallas 6-3, and it’s the home Vikings who come up underdog. It’s rarely as easy as it looks when it comes to sports betting, and this is a prime example of such. Most sports bettors would think it’s common sense to take the home underdog versus an opponent they are 2.0 games better than in the standings and especially so when it’s the 2nd half of a season. However, common sense is crucial in everyday life but usually loses you money in the long haul when applicable to sports wagering.
Minnesota would have to lose the rest of their games to squander their NFC North Division lead, and even then, they still could possibly land on top. They’re also coming off what’s considered to be a statement win in overtime at Buffalo last Sunday. Unlike Dallas, their degree of urgency this Sunday will be much lower for Minnesota than that of the Cowboys in my professional opinion. It’s not an exact science when predicting who will be a more desperate team when it comes to NFL betting. Nonetheless, the human response element I expect from these teams on Sunday is more likely to occur in this situation.

Currently, Dallas (6-3) is in 3rd place in the NFC East standing behind the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Giants. They have little room for error down the regular season stretch is they aspire to be the NFC East Division champ. So yes, their sense of urgency should and will probably be at a fever high pitch. Lastly, these teams have squared off in each of the previous 2 season, both were played at Minnesota, and Dallas won each SU as an underdog.

Give me Dallas on the money line for my NFL 10* Game of the Year.