Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Diamondbacks vs Rockies prediction features one of the most lopsided pitching matchups on the board. Arizona closes out its three-game series at Coors Field with first pitch at 3:10 PM ET, and the Diamondbacks have already won the first two games, 7-2 and 5-3. Arizona enters at 84-74 on a four-game winning streak, while Colorado is 57-101 and has lost three straight. The Diamondbacks are about -193 on the moneyline and -1.5 at -122 on the run line, the Rockies are +159, and the total is 10 runs. Eduardo Rodriguez brings a 2.89 ERA into a matchup with Tanner Gordon and his 6.01 ERA, which is why laying the run and a half makes sense here. For more daily betting edges, check out our full slate of MLB predictions.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-122)
- Total Pick: Over 10 (-109)
- Projected Final Score: Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 4
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | -193 | -1.5 (-122) | Over 10 (-109) |
| Colorado Rockies | +159 | +1.5 | Under 10 (-111) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Arizona | Colorado | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | -193 | +159 | ARI 93%, ARI 86% |
| 09/24 | -198 | +162 | ARI 93%, ARI 86% |
| 09/24 | -192 | +162 | ARI 93%, ARI 86% |
| 09/24 | -192 | +158 | ARI 93%, ARI 86% |
| 09/24 | -192 | +157 | ARI 93%, ARI 86% |
| 09/23 | -192 | +158 | ARI 78%, ARI 83% |
| 09/23 | -187 | +154 | ARI 58%, ARI 67% |
| 09/23 | -185 | +152 | ARI 97%, ARI 50% |
| 09/23 | -186 | +153 |
Arizona has been the only side the market wants. The Diamondbacks opened at -186 and climbed steadily to -192, then peaked at -198 before settling at -193. Colorado moved the other way, from +153 out to as high as +162 before landing at +159. Support for Arizona has grown throughout. The early split showed 97% of the money but only 50% of the tickets on the Diamondbacks, and both numbers have since climbed to 93% of the money and 86% of the tickets. The small pullback from -198 to -193 gives moneyline bettors a slightly better entry point, but the run line at -122 remains the stronger way to back Arizona.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 10 (-109) | 10 (-111) | OV 76%, OV 60% |
| 09/24 | 10 (-107) | 10 (-112) | OV 76%, OV 60% |
| 09/24 | 10 (-109) | 10 (-111) | OV 76%, OV 57% |
| 09/24 | 10 (-109) | 10 (-110) | OV 76%, OV 57% |
| 09/24 | 10 (-112) | 10 (-108) | OV 91%, OV 55% |
| 09/24 | 10 (-112) | 10 (-107) | OV 91%, OV 55% |
| 09/24 | 10 (-112) | 10 (-108) | OV 91%, OV 55% |
| 09/23 | 10 (-115) | 10 (-105) | OV 88%, OV 50% |
| 09/23 | 10 (-114) | 10 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
The total has stayed at 10 the entire way, but the price has moved in a way that helps Over bettors. The Over opened with heavy juice at -114 and -115 when it had 88% to 100% of the money. Since then, the price has eased to -112, then -109 and briefly -107, while the Under moved from -105 to -111. The Over's share of the money dropped from 100% to 76%, though its share of the tickets grew from 50% to 60%. The market has cooled a bit on the Over, and that has taken the premium off the price. Bettors can now back the Over at nearly even juice instead of paying -115.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Key Matchups and Game Preview
These two teams are in very different places. Arizona is 84-74, has won four straight and has already taken the series with wins of 7-2 and 5-3. Colorado is 57-101 and has lost three in a row. The Diamondbacks have scored 12 runs in the first two games and allowed only five. Thursday's pitching matchup tilts the field even further toward the visitors.
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Diamondbacks Ace Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez has been excellent for Arizona. The left-hander is 15-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP across 183.2 innings. He has allowed 164 hits with 140 strikeouts and 62 walks. The innings total matters as much as the ERA. Rodriguez has worked deep into games all season, and that is important for a Diamondbacks team with several relievers on the injured list.
His walk total of 62 means he will give up some free passes, and a Colorado lineup with a couple of high-OBP hitters can make him work. But a 2.89 ERA over more than 180 innings shows he limits damage consistently, and he gives Arizona a huge edge on the mound.
Rockies Hand the Ball to Tanner Gordon
Tanner Gordon has struggled all season. He is 1-5 with a 6.01 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 100.1 innings. He has allowed 136 hits and 19 home runs in that span, well over a hit per inning with a lot of power damage mixed in. Against a Diamondbacks lineup that has already scored 12 runs in the series, Gordon is facing a difficult assignment.
The gap between the two starters is enormous. Rodriguez's ERA is more than three runs lower than Gordon's, and his WHIP is 32 points better. That is the kind of difference that turns a favorite into a run-line play.
Arizona Holds a Massive Pitching Staff Edge
The advantage extends beyond the starters. Colorado owns a 5.55 team ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .288 against Rockies pitching. Arizona's staff carries a 4.08 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. That is nearly a run and a half per game of difference. Even if Gordon survives a few innings, the Diamondbacks should keep finding chances against a Colorado staff that allows hits at an extremely high rate. The Rockies are also missing starters McCade Brown and Chase Dollander, so the staff has even less depth than usual.
Diamondbacks Bats: Arenado and Moreno
Nolan Arenado leads the Arizona offense with 28 home runs and 80 RBIs. Against a pitcher who has allowed 19 homers in 100.1 innings, Arenado's power is a major threat. Gabriel Moreno has been one of the most consistent hitters in the lineup, slashing .310/.387/.484. His on-base skills set up scoring chances, and his slugging lets him drive in runs himself. With Gordon allowing so many baserunners, Moreno and Arenado should see plenty of run-scoring chances.
Colorado Still Has Dangerous Hitters
The Rockies' record hides a lineup with real bats. Hunter Goodman has 39 home runs and 83 RBIs, making him the biggest power threat in this game. T.J. Rumfield is hitting .296 with a .386 on-base percentage, and Jake McCarthy is batting .295 with 15 homers and 83 RBIs. These three are why the Over is in play even with Rodriguez on the mound. Goodman's power and Rumfield's ability to get on base give Colorado a path to a few runs, especially if Rodriguez's walk rate puts extra runners on base.
Rockies Slide Continues
Colorado has lost three straight, including the first two games of this series, and sits 44 games under .500. The Rockies were held to two runs in the opener and three runs Wednesday, and they now face the best starter they have seen all series. Colorado is also without Kris Bryant and Willi Castro, which removes two more bats from a lineup that already relies heavily on Goodman, Rumfield and McCarthy.
Why the Diamondbacks Can Cover at Coors Field
The run line needs Arizona to win by two or more. The Diamondbacks won the opener by five and the second game by two, so they have covered -1.5 in both games of the series. With a much bigger pitching edge Thursday than in either of those games, a multi-run win is the most likely outcome. At -122, the run line costs far less than the -193 moneyline and pays off in the result that fits this matchup best.
ARI vs COL Betting Trends
Diamondbacks Trends
- Arizona enters Thursday at 84-74.
- The Diamondbacks have won four straight games.
- Arizona won the first two games of the series, 7-2 and 5-3.
- The Diamondbacks have covered -1.5 in both games of the series.
- Arizona has scored 12 runs in the series and allowed five.
- Eduardo Rodriguez is 15-7 with a 2.89 ERA over 183.2 innings.
- Arizona has drawn 93% of the moneyline handle and 86% of the tickets.
Rockies Trends
- Colorado enters Thursday at 57-101.
- The Rockies have lost three straight games.
- Colorado owns a 5.55 team ERA and 1.52 WHIP.
- Opponents are hitting .288 against Rockies pitching.
- Tanner Gordon is 1-5 with a 6.01 ERA and has allowed 19 home runs.
- The first two games of this series produced nine and eight runs.
ARI vs COL Key Injuries and Things To Know
Arizona Injury Report
- Ryan Thompson – Out (reliever)
- A.J. Puk – Out (reliever)
- Andrew Saalfrank – Out (reliever)
- Cristian Mena – Out (reliever)
Colorado Injury Report
- Kris Bryant – Out
- Willi Castro – Out
- McCade Brown – Out (starting pitcher)
- Chase Dollander – Out (starting pitcher)
Things To Know About the Diamondbacks and Rockies
Arizona's injuries are all in the bullpen. With Thompson, Puk, Saalfrank and Mena out, the Diamondbacks will depend on Rodriguez to pitch deep into the game. His 183.2 innings show he has done that all season. If he exits early, though, a thinned Arizona bullpen could give Colorado a chance to add late runs, which also helps the Over.
Colorado's losses hit both sides of the ball. Without Bryant and Castro, the lineup loses depth behind its top three hitters. Without Brown and Dollander, a rotation that already posts a 5.55 team ERA gets even thinner. That combination is why Arizona is such a big favorite and why the run line is the preferred play.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Side and Over/Under Picks
Arizona Run Line Pick
The side pick is Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-122). Laying -193 on the moneyline asks you to risk nearly two dollars to win one. The run line cuts that cost sharply while backing the result the matchup points to: a multi-run Arizona win. The Diamondbacks have the far better starter, the far better staff, a four-game winning streak and covers in both games of this series.
The key numbers are Gordon's 6.01 ERA and the .288 average opponents are hitting against Colorado. Arizona should score early and often, and Rodriguez's ability to pitch deep should keep the Rockies from mounting a comeback. A three- or four-run win is well within reach.
Over Pick for Arizona at Colorado
The total pick is Over 10 (-109). The Diamondbacks should do plenty of scoring against Gordon, who has allowed 136 hits and 19 home runs in 100.1 innings. Colorado's thin staff means the Rockies will likely need relievers from a group that has allowed opponents to hit .288.
The Rockies should contribute too. Goodman's 39 homers, Rumfield's .386 OBP and McCarthy's 83 RBIs give Colorado enough to push across a few runs even against Rodriguez, especially if his walk rate puts runners on base. The first two games stayed under 10, but neither featured a starter as vulnerable as Gordon. The Over price has also eased from -115 to -109, so you get a better number than earlier Over bettors did.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 4
- Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks
- Run Line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-122) covers
- Total: 11 runs, Over 10 hits
Arizona should get to Gordon early, with Arenado's power and Moreno's on-base skills leading the attack. Colorado's bullpen should offer little relief, letting the Diamondbacks add runs throughout. Goodman and Rumfield give the Rockies a few runs against Rodriguez, but not enough to keep pace. A 7-4 Arizona win completes the sweep and cashes both the run line and the Over.
How to Wager On Diamondbacks vs Rockies
When the favorite has this kind of pitching edge, the run line is usually the smartest way to bet it. Laying -193 on Arizona offers little return, while the -1.5 at -122 pays far better for a result the matchup strongly supports. The Diamondbacks have already covered the run line twice in this series, and Thursday's pitching gap is wider than in either of those games.
The Over 10 fits the same outlook: Arizona scores a lot against a struggling starter and staff, and Colorado's best bats add a few of their own. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Diamondbacks run line with the Over in a same-game parlay, since an Arizona blowout in a high-scoring game helps both legs. Keep an eye on the Over price before first pitch, because it has moved between -107 and -115, and grabbing the cheaper number adds value. Lock in your bets before the 3:10 PM ET first pitch.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-driven projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-focused tool can help you spot edges across the MLB board.
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