Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday July 29 2026
Wednesday's split doubleheader brings the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets back together for Game 1 at 1:10 p.m. ET, with a nightcap following at 7:10 p.m. ET after Tuesday's postponement. This MLB predictions matchup features Atlanta turning to AJ Smith-Shawver for his 2026 debut against a Mets lineup missing two of its top power threats, setting up an intriguing spot for bettors in the series' second meeting.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline: Atlanta -127
- Run Line: Atlanta -1.5 (+134)
- Total: Under 8
- Final Score Prediction: Braves 5, Mets 2
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | -127 | -1.5 (+134) | Under 8 |
| New York Mets | +105 | +1.5 | Over 8 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Atlanta | NY Mets | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/29 | 08:27:03AM | -150 | +124 | ATL 76%, 68% |
| 07/29 | 08:22:45AM | -127 | +105 | ATL 76%, 68% |
| 07/29 | 08:13:12AM | -155 | +128 | ATL 76%, 68% |
| 07/29 | 08:10:53AM | -156 | +129 | ATL 76%, 68% |
| 07/29 | 07:08:34AM | -125 | +103 | ATL 76%, 68% |
| 07/29 | 06:58:12AM | -150 | +124 | ATL 76%, 68% |
| 07/29 | 06:36:13AM | -151 | +125 | ATL 77%, 70% |
| 07/29 | 06:36:13AM | -151 | +125 | ATL 77%, 70% |
| 07/29 | 04:38:51AM | -162 | +134 | ATL 68%, 79% |
| 07/29 | 04:37:09AM | -162 | +134 | ATL 68%, 79% |
| 07/29 | 02:33:37AM | -155 | +128 | ATL 61%, 79% |
| 07/29 | 02:33:37AM | -162 | +134 | ATL 61%, 79% |
| 07/29 | 01:06:56AM | -115 | -105 | ATL 78%, 70% |
| 07/28 | 11:55:06PM | -115 | -105 | ATL 78%, 70% |
| 07/28 | 11:53:36PM | -132 | +109 | ATL 78%, 70% |
| 07/28 | 11:52:07PM | -115 | -105 | ATL 78%, 70% |
| 07/28 | 11:43:26PM | -132 | +109 | ATL 78%, 70% |
| 07/28 | 10:50:35PM | -115 | -105 | - |
| 07/28 | 10:50:35PM | -116 | -104 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/29 | 08:22:45AM | 8 -118 | 8u -102 | O 90%, 57% |
| 07/29 | 08:13:12AM | 7 -122 | 7u +102 | O 90%, 57% |
| 07/29 | 08:10:53AM | 7œ +101 | 7œu -122 | O 90%, 57% |
| 07/29 | 07:14:33AM | 8 -109 | 8u -111 | O 90%, 57% |
| 07/29 | 07:08:34AM | 8 -116 | 8u -104 | O 90%, 57% |
| 07/29 | 06:58:12AM | 7œ -104 | 7œu -116 | O 90%, 57% |
| 07/29 | 06:36:13AM | 7œ -106 | 7œu -114 | O 90%, 50% |
| 07/29 | 04:38:51AM | 8œ -102 | 8œu -114 | O 89% |
Braves vs Mets Key Matchups and Game Preview
Braves Turn to Smith-Shawver
Atlanta will activate AJ Smith-Shawver to make his 2026 debut and his first major-league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery following a torn elbow ligament in May 2025. The right-hander posted a 1.53 ERA across five minor-league rehab starts and reached 86 pitches in his final outing, although he did not complete five innings in any of those appearances, making his workload an important consideration for Game 1.
Mets Counter With Manaea
New York counters with Sean Manaea, who is 2-5 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 85.2 innings. Manaea has recorded 84 strikeouts against 28 walks, but he has allowed 88 hits and 12 home runs, giving an Atlanta lineup with 140 homers an opportunity to create damage in this matchup.
Atlanta's Offensive Depth
The Braves have been the stronger offensive team overall, batting .249 with a .315 on-base percentage and .416 slugging percentage, compared with New York's .235 average, .307 OBP and .387 slugging mark. Matt Olson leads Atlanta with 27 home runs and 63 RBIs, while Michael Harris II is batting .298 with a .503 slugging percentage.
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Mets Missing Key Power
The Mets' displayed offensive leaders include Juan Soto, who has 21 homers and a .283 average, but Soto is currently sidelined by a left calf strain and is expected to miss an extended period. Mark Vientos is also out with a fractured right hand, leaving New York without two of its most dangerous power threats heading into Game 1.
Braves' Bullpen and Catching Concerns
Atlanta has injury concerns of its own, particularly behind the plate and in the bullpen. Sean Murphy remains out with a fractured finger, while Robert Suarez and Joe Jimenez are unavailable, weakening the relief corps behind a starter who may be limited. Ha-Seong Kim has begun a rehab assignment, but his status for Wednesday remains uncertain.
ATL and NYM Betting Trends
New York won Monday's series opener 14-3, but Atlanta enters Game 1 of this doubleheader as a -127 moneyline favorite and is available at +134 on the -1.5 run line. The Mets sit at +105 on the moneyline, while the total is set at eight runs. This is the second meeting of the series after Tuesday's game was postponed, with a nightcap set for 7:10 p.m. ET following Game 1's 1:10 p.m. ET start.
ATL and NYM Injuries and Things to Know
- Juan Soto (New York) is sidelined by a left calf strain and expected to miss an extended period.
- Mark Vientos (New York) is out with a fractured right hand.
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta) remains out with a fractured finger.
- Robert Suarez and Joe Jimenez (Atlanta bullpen) are unavailable.
- Ha-Seong Kim (Atlanta) has begun a rehab assignment, but his status for Wednesday remains uncertain.
- AJ Smith-Shawver (Atlanta) is making his 2026 debut following Tommy John surgery, and his pitch count and workload are worth monitoring.
Braves vs Mets Side and Over/Under Picks
Braves Side Pick
Take Atlanta -127 on the moneyline. The Braves own the deeper lineup and should have the better scoring opportunities against Manaea, whose home run issues make him a risky arm to trust in Game 1.
Total Pick
Take the under 8. With Soto and Vientos absent, New York may struggle to repeat Monday's offensive explosion, and Smith-Shawver's rehab performance suggests he can limit damage even on a restricted pitch count.
Final Score Prediction
Braves Win Game 1
Look for Atlanta's offensive depth to be the deciding factor against Manaea, with the Braves controlling this Game 1 matchup behind Smith-Shawver's return.
- Final Score: Braves 5, Mets 2
- Moneyline: Atlanta -127
- Total: Under 8
How to Wager on Braves vs Mets
Bettors looking to expand this Braves-Mets doubleheader opener into a bigger card have several resources worth checking out. For model-driven projections across today's full MLB slate, visit the AI picks hub. Those wanting additional angles on the moneyline, run line, and total in this matchup can also review the Dimers review and the Oddible review before placing a wager on Wednesday's Game 1 matchup.
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