Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday September 14 2026
The Baltimore Orioles travel to Citi Field on Monday night to face the New York Mets in an interleague matchup between two clubs looking to build momentum down the stretch of the 2026 season. Baltimore enters at 72-78 after dropping two straight, while New York sits at 69-80 following a loss to the Yankees. For more coverage across tonight's slate, check out our MLB picks hub, but this breakdown is built specifically around Orioles-Mets odds, trends, and the pitching matchup between Brandon Young and Jonah Tong.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline: Baltimore +103
- Total: Over 8 (-105)
- Final Score Prediction: Baltimore 5, New York 4
Odds and Line Movement
Below is the current market along with how the line has shifted since it opened, based strictly on the tracked moneyline and totals movement.
Current Odds
| Market | Baltimore Orioles | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +103 | -124 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-206) | -1.5 (+169) |
| Total | 8 (Over -105 / Under -114) | |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Baltimore | NY Mets | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/14 | +103 | -124 | BAL 54%, BAL 61% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -125 | BAL 54%, BAL 61% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -124 | BAL 54%, BAL 61% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -125 | BAL 54%, BAL 61% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -124 | BAL 54%, BAL 61% |
| 09/14 | +104 | -125 | BAL 54%, BAL 61% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -125 | BAL 54%, BAL 61% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -124 | BAL 54%, BAL 63% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -125 | BAL 54%, BAL 63% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -124 | BAL 54%, BAL 63% |
| 09/14 | +104 | -124 | BAL 54%, BAL 63% |
| 09/14 | +103 | -125 | BAL 54%, BAL 63% |
| 09/13 | +103 | -125 | BAL 75%, BAL 63% |
| 09/13 | +101 | -122 | BAL 73%, BAL 50% |
| 09/13 | +104 | -126 | BAL 73%, BAL 50% |
| 09/13 | +104 | -125 | BAL 73%, BAL 50% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/14 | 8 (-105) | 8 (-114) | OV 99%, OV 77% |
| 09/14 | 8 (-106) | 8 (-114) | OV 99%, OV 77% |
| 09/14 | 8 (-105) | 8 (-114) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/14 | 8 (-106) | 8 (-114) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/13 | 8 (-105) | 8 (-114) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
Orioles vs Mets Key Matchups and Game Preview
Baltimore Leans on Young
Right-hander Brandon Young takes the mound for the Orioles carrying a dependable 9-4 record with a 3.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 140.2 innings. Young has allowed 140 hits and 20 home runs while recording 112 strikeouts against 50 walks, giving Baltimore a much larger and more stable body of work than what New York will counter with.
Mets Counter With Tong
New York responds with rookie right-hander Jonah Tong, who is working with a far smaller sample at 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across just 15 innings. Tong has surrendered 12 hits and two home runs while striking out 14 and walking eight, and that limited track record creates some volatility against a Baltimore lineup with several legitimate power threats.
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Orioles Power Led by Alonso
Pete Alonso has been Baltimore's biggest run producer this season, driving in 100 runs with 35 home runs and a .269 average to go with a .363 OBP and .499 slugging percentage. Baltimore is hitting just .234 as a team, but its 179 home runs and 672 runs both compare favorably with New York's totals, giving the Orioles a legitimate power dimension even with the modest team average.
Mets Offense and Depth
New York is led by Juan Soto's 25 home runs and .272 average, while Carson Benge is batting .271 and Bo Bichette has contributed 73 RBI and 16 home runs. As a team, the Mets have hit 188 home runs and scored 643 runs. The two pitching staffs have graded out nearly identically, with Baltimore carrying a 4.20 ERA and 1.35 WHIP compared with New York's 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
BAL and NYM Betting Trends
- Baltimore has dropped its last two games entering Monday's matchup.
- New York enters off a loss to the Yankees.
- Public moneyline money has favored Baltimore throughout the tracked movement, with BAL backing ranging from 50% to 75% depending on the date.
- Total market money has leaned heavily toward the Over across the tracked lines, with public backing reaching 100% on multiple dates.
Key Injuries and Things To Know for BAL and NYM
Baltimore Orioles injuries: The Orioles remain without Luis Robert Jr., Christian Franklin and Ryan Mountcastle, taking several potential impact bats out of the lineup, while reliever Ryan Helsley is also sidelined.
New York Mets injuries: New York's bullpen depth is compromised by the absence of Devin Williams, while Jorge Polanco and Tylor Megill remain among the club's longer-term injuries.
Orioles vs Mets Side and Over/Under Picks
With Young offering a much larger and more stable body of work than Tong, and Baltimore's power numbers holding up well against New York's, the underdog carries real appeal here despite the Orioles' recent skid.
- Side Pick: Orioles moneyline (+103)
- Total Pick: Over 8
Final Score Prediction
Given Young's stability on the mound and Alonso's power at the plate for Baltimore, this projects as a close, competitive game that comes down to the final innings.
- Final Score Prediction: Baltimore 5, New York 4
How to Wager on Orioles vs Mets
Bettors looking to shop this line have several options for approaching the moneyline, run line, and total in this Orioles-Mets matchup. Given the tracked movement above, finding the best number on the Orioles moneyline or the Over 8 total can add real value over time. For those who want additional model-driven input before placing a wager, our AI picks resource breaks down multiple projection systems, including our Dimers review and our Oddible review, both of which can be used alongside the trends and matchup notes above to help sharpen a final decision on this game.
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