Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday September 16 2026
Baltimore looks to complete a series sweep in dramatic fashion Wednesday night, as the Orioles close out their interleague set against the New York Mets at Citi Field. This is one of the more entertaining matchups on today's MLB predictions slate, with Baltimore entering at 74-78 after taking both games of the series so far, including a wild 7-5 win in 11 innings Tuesday. New York sits at 69-82 and will need a strong response behind Robert Stock against Chris Bassitt to avoid the sweep.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Baltimore Orioles +119 (moneyline)
- Total Pick: Over 9 (-101)
- Final Score Prediction: Orioles 6, Mets 5
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | +1.5 (-171) | +119 | 9 |
| New York Mets | -1.5 (+141) | -144 | 9 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Baltimore | NY Mets | Public |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16 | +119 | -144 | BAL 78%, NYM 52% |
| 09/16 | +123 | -149 | BAL 82%, NYM 54% |
| 09/15 | +120 | -145 | BAL 85%, NYM 57% |
| 09/15 | +123 | -149 | NYM 58%, NYM 65% |
| 09/15 | +124 | -149 | NYM 58%, NYM 65% |
| 09/15 | +123 | -148 | - |
| 09/15 | +122 | -148 | - |
| 09/15 | +123 | -149 | - |
| 09/15 | +121 | -146 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/16 | 9-101 | 9-119 | OV 98%, OV 71% |
| 09/16 | 8½-122 | 8½+101 | OV 99%, OV 75% |
| 09/15 | 8½-119 | 8½-101 | - |
| 09/15 | 8½-118 | 8½-102 | - |
| 09/15 | 8½-116 | 8½-104 | - |
| 09/15 | 8½-113 | 8½-106 | - |
| 09/15 | 8½-110 | 8½-110 | - |
| 09/15 | 8½-108 | 8½-112 | - |
| 09/15 | 8½-110 | 8½-110 | - |
Orioles vs Mets Key Matchups and Game Preview
Bassitt Brings Experience but Elevated Numbers
Chris Bassitt takes the mound for Baltimore with a 7-5 record, 4.88 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over 90.1 innings this season. He has allowed 108 hits with 66 strikeouts, 36 walks and 10 home runs. His elevated WHIP suggests New York's lineup could find ways to generate traffic throughout the game.
Stock Struggles With Limited Workload for New York
Robert Stock counters for the Mets with a 1-3 record, 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across just 30.1 innings, striking out 29 while allowing 38 hits and 15 walks. Opponents have hit .297 against Stock this season, giving Baltimore's lineup a favorable matchup against a Mets starter who has struggled to keep runners off base.
Orioles Power Led by Alonso
Baltimore is batting .234 with a .315 OBP and .394 slugging percentage while scoring 681 runs and hitting 184 home runs this season. Pete Alonso has been the biggest offensive force for the Orioles, delivering 36 home runs, 101 RBI and a .267 average, and he already came through in a massive way in Tuesday's win with a game-tying home run in the ninth inning.
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Mets Offense Anchored by Soto, Benge and Bichette
New York is hitting .238 with a .309 OBP, .395 slugging percentage, 649 runs and 190 home runs. Juan Soto leads the Mets in power with 25 home runs, Carson Benge paces the club in average at .272, and Bo Bichette has driven in 74 runs while batting .264, giving New York a capable trio in the middle of the lineup.
Coby Mayo's Walk-Off Heroics Fresh in Memory
Baltimore's momentum got a major boost Tuesday when Coby Mayo delivered a three-run inside-the-park home run in the 11th inning to secure a 7-5 win. That kind of late-game production has carried the Orioles through the first two games of this series and adds to their case heading into the finale.
Nearly Identical Team Pitching Numbers
Baltimore and New York enter this game with identical 4.16 team ERAs, though the Mets hold a slight edge with a 1.30 WHIP compared to Baltimore's 1.35. That near dead-even split at the team level puts even more weight on how each individual starter performs Wednesday.
Orioles Dealing With Notable Absences
Baltimore is missing Luis Robert Jr., who is on the 10-day injured list, while Samuel Basallo and Shane Baz are both listed as day-to-day. Those absences add some uncertainty to an Orioles lineup that has still found ways to produce in the first two games of this series.
Mets Bullpen Stretched Thin
New York's bullpen situation is even more concerning, with relievers Cionel Perez and Devin Williams both on the 15-day injured list, while Jorge Polanco, Reed Garrett and Tylor Megill remain on the 60-day injured list. That level of attrition in relief could be significant if Stock is unable to work deep into the game.
BAL vs NYM Betting Trends
The moneyline and run line have shown mixed movement over the past day, with New York's price ranging from -144 up to -149 before settling at -144, while Baltimore's number has moved between +119 and +124. Public betting has leaned toward Baltimore on tickets in the most recent snapshots, with reported splits showing BAL drawing between 78% and 85% of tickets, while dollar percentages have been more split between the two sides depending on the snapshot.
The total has climbed from 8.5 up to 9 runs in the most recent update, with the over drawing as much as 99% of tickets and 75% of dollars in one snapshot and 98% of tickets and 71% of dollars in the latest. That steady public lean toward the over lines up with two shaky starting pitchers and offenses that have already combined for double-digit runs earlier in the series.
Key Injuries and Things To Know for BAL and NYM
- Baltimore Orioles: OF Luis Robert Jr. (10-day IL), Samuel Basallo (day-to-day), RHP Shane Baz (day-to-day)
- New York Mets: RHP Cionel Perez (15-day IL), RHP Devin Williams (15-day IL), Jorge Polanco (60-day IL), RHP Reed Garrett (60-day IL), RHP Tylor Megill (60-day IL)
- Baltimore (74-78) has won the first two games of this series, including a 7-5 win in 11 innings Tuesday
- Starting pitchers: Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.88 ERA) for Baltimore vs. Robert Stock (1-3, 5.93 ERA) for New York
Orioles vs Mets Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Baltimore Orioles +119
- Total Pick: Over 9 (-101)
- Reasoning: Stock's .297 opponent average and 5.93 ERA give Baltimore's lineup a favorable matchup, while Bassitt's elevated WHIP gives New York chances of its own, setting up a back-and-forth game that supports the plus-money underdog and the over.
Final Score Prediction
- Baltimore Orioles: 6
- New York Mets: 5
With both starters carrying shaky peripheral numbers and Baltimore riding momentum from back-to-back dramatic wins, this finale sets up for another high-scoring, closely contested game that plays into both the plus-money Orioles and the over.
How to Wager On Orioles vs Mets
Bettors building out a full card around this Orioles vs Mets finale have a few additional resources worth exploring. For a broader look at model-driven picks across today's slate, check out these AI picks. Those wanting a deeper dive into specific modeling tools can also read the Dimers review or the Oddible review for additional perspective on how projection-based systems view this matchup and other games on the board.
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