Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday September 25 2026
The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees close out a September 25 doubleheader at Yankee Stadium with the nightcap scheduled for 7:05 PM ET, following the 4:05 PM opener. This Orioles vs Yankees prediction is shaped as much by the schedule as by the rosters. Baltimore sends right-hander Brandon Young to the mound, while New York has not named its Game 2 starter, and both bullpens could be stretched depending on how the afternoon game plays out. The Yankees enter at 92-67, four games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East, while the Orioles are 78-81 and riding a three-game win streak. The market has already moved sharply off the opening number, and the total sits at a very low 6.5. Below you will find the odds, line movement, full matchup breakdown, injuries and our complete betting card. For more daily plays across the league, check out our MLB picks.
Orioles vs Yankees TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Yankees -142
- Spread Pick: Orioles +1.5
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (-110)
- Final Score Prediction: Yankees 3, Orioles 2
- Probable Starters: Brandon Young (BAL) vs TBD (NYY)
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | +120 | +1.5 | 6.5 | -128 | +104 |
| New York Yankees | -142 | -1.5 (+178) | 6.5 | -128 | +104 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Baltimore | NY Yankees | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/25 | +120 | -142 | NYY 98%, NYY 78% |
| 09/25 | +116 | -136 | NYY 98%, NYY 78% |
| 09/25 | +120 | -142 | NYY 98%, NYY 78% |
| 09/25 | +124 | -146 | NYY 98%, NYY 78% |
| 09/25 | +132 | -156 | |
| 09/25 | +136 | -162 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/25 | 6.5 -128 | 6.5 +104 |
The moneyline has moved significantly toward Baltimore. New York opened as a -162 favorite with the Orioles at +136, and the price has dropped through -156, -146 and as low as -136 before settling at -142, with Baltimore at +120. What stands out is that this move came while the Yankees drew 98 percent of the money and 78 percent of the tickets. A favorite shedding 20 cents despite nearly all of the action tells us the market has real respect for the Orioles in this nightcap, which supports our lean on Baltimore catching runs. The total opened at 6.5 with the Over at -128 and the Under at +104, meaning the posted number gives Under bettors a plus-money price.
Key Matchups and Game Preview: Orioles at Yankees
Baltimore Arrives Riding a Three-Game Win Streak
Baltimore enters the day at 78-81, but the Orioles are playing their best baseball of the stretch run. They have won three straight, sweeping three games from Toronto on the way into the Bronx. That momentum matters in a doubleheader setting, where energy and bullpen freshness can swing a game. The Orioles are not in the playoff hunt, but they are playing loose, confident baseball and have the type of form that keeps underdogs competitive.
Brandon Young Steadies the Orioles Rotation
Young gives Baltimore a reasonably reliable option in a game where bullpen availability could be especially important. He is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP across 151.2 innings. He has allowed 148 hits with 127 strikeouts, 58 walks and 22 home runs. The WHIP shows he allows some traffic, and the home run total is worth watching in Yankee Stadium, but his 3.62 ERA reflects a pitcher who generally limits the damage. Most importantly, Young is a known quantity who can soak up innings, which is valuable when the Orioles bullpen may have been used in the afternoon game.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
The Yankees Nightcap Starter Remains a Mystery
New York's starter for Game 2 is undecided, and that uncertainty affects both the side and the total. Depending on how the opener unfolds, the Yankees could be forced to lean heavily on their bullpen in the nightcap. That is not necessarily a bad thing for New York, given its strong pitching profile overall, but it does make laying a big number on the run line far less appealing. When you do not know who is starting, you do not want to need a multi-run win.
New York Holds the Power Edge
The Yankees own the stronger offensive profile when it comes to power. New York has hit 223 home runs with a .410 slugging percentage, compared with Baltimore's 194 home runs and .394 slugging mark. The Yankees also hold the better pitching numbers as a team, with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP compared with the Orioles' 4.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. On paper, New York is the better team in nearly every category, which is why the Yankees remain our moneyline pick despite the uncertainty on the mound.
Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger Lead the Yankees
Ben Rice has emerged as one of New York's primary power threats with 41 home runs and 97 RBI. With several big bats sidelined, Rice carries even more of the offensive load. Cody Bellinger leads the Yankees with a .266 average, giving the lineup a steady contact presence. Against a pitcher like Young who has allowed 22 home runs, Rice's power is the biggest threat Baltimore will need to navigate.
Pete Alonso Powers the Orioles
Baltimore counters with Pete Alonso, who has been the club's most productive hitter by a wide margin. Alonso has produced 41 home runs, 110 RBI and a .264 average with a .359 OBP and a .512 slugging percentage. He is the one bat in the Orioles lineup capable of matching Rice's power, and with Baltimore missing several key hitters, Alonso is the centerpiece of any run-scoring threat the visitors can mount.
How the Doubleheader Shapes New York's Pitching
The doubleheader setting adds a layer that bettors cannot ignore. New York's strong 3.20 team ERA and 1.16 WHIP suggest its bullpen is well equipped to handle a heavy workload, but the Game 1 result will influence who is available in the nightcap. For the side, that points toward the Yankees winning a tight game rather than pulling away. For the total, bullpen-heavy usage by a staff this effective supports a contained scoring environment.
Betting Trends: BAL vs NYY
- New York has won eight of the first 10 meetings in the season series.
- Baltimore has won three straight, including a three-game sweep of Toronto.
- New York is 92-67 and sits four games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East.
- Baltimore is 78-81.
- The Yankees moneyline dropped from -162 at open to -142.
- The Orioles moneyline moved from +136 at open to +120.
- New York is drawing 98 percent of the money and 78 percent of the tickets on the moneyline.
- The total is posted at 6.5 with the Over at -128 and the Under at +104.
Yankees Dominance in the Season Series
New York has owned this matchup, winning eight of the first 10 meetings. That track record is a big reason the Yankees remain the pick to win this game outright. However, a head-to-head edge does not guarantee a margin of victory, and with an unknown starter and a doubleheader workload, we prefer backing New York to win rather than to cover -1.5.
Market Moves Toward Baltimore
The most telling trend in this game is the price action. Even with the Yankees taking nearly all of the money, the line has dropped from -162 to -142. That reverse movement signals respect for Baltimore in the nightcap and lines up with the value in taking the Orioles with the extra run and a half.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: BAL vs NYY
Orioles Injury Report
- Ryan Mountcastle: Out.
- Luis Robert Jr.: Out.
- Tyler O'Neill: Out.
Baltimore is missing notable bats, which puts even more pressure on Alonso to carry the offense. These absences are a big reason we expect the Orioles to keep the game close without scoring enough to push the total over.
Yankees Injury Report
- Aaron Judge: Out.
- Giancarlo Stanton: Out.
- Trent Grisham: Out.
New York's biggest concern is an injury list that potentially removes significant power and run production from the lineup. Without Judge and Stanton, the Yankees rely heavily on Rice and Bellinger, which lowers their offensive ceiling and makes a multi-run win less likely. With both offenses short-handed, the case for a low-scoring game grows stronger.
Orioles vs Yankees Side and Over/Under Picks
Why the Yankees Win but the Orioles Cover
New York is the better team with the stronger pitching profile and an 8-2 edge in the season series, so the Yankees are the pick to win outright at -142. That price is already 20 cents cheaper than the opener, making it a more reasonable number to lay. At the same time, the unknown starter and doubleheader setting make laying -1.5 at +178 unappealing. With both lineups missing dangerous hitters and Young capable of keeping Baltimore competitive, the Orioles on the run line offer the better side angle. Our projected one-run result cashes both positions.
- Moneyline Pick: Yankees -142
- Spread Pick: Orioles +1.5
Why Baltimore and New York Stay Under 6.5
A total of 6.5 is extremely low, but this game sets up for it. Both offenses are short-handed, with New York missing Judge, Stanton and Grisham, and Baltimore without Mountcastle, Robert Jr. and O'Neill. Add the potential for bullpen-heavy usage from a Yankees staff with a 3.20 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and the scoring environment should stay contained. The Over is juiced to -128, which means the Under offers a better price for a game we expect to finish with five runs.
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (-110)
Baltimore vs New York Final Score Prediction
Expect Young to keep Baltimore in the game while the Yankees piece together innings from their bullpen. Rice and Alonso are the two bats most likely to decide it, but with both lineups depleted, runs will be hard to come by. New York edges out a tight nightcap, the Orioles cover with the extra run and a half, and the game stays under the number.
- Final Score Prediction: Yankees 3, Orioles 2
- Moneyline Pick: Yankees -142
- Spread Pick: Orioles +1.5
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (-110)
How to Wager On Orioles vs Yankees
Timing is everything in a doubleheader nightcap. Watch how Game 1 unfolds at 4:05 PM ET, because bullpen usage in the opener will shape both teams' pitching plans at 7:05 PM ET. If the Yankees burn through relievers early in the afternoon, the value on Orioles +1.5 grows. The Yankees moneyline has already dropped from -162 to -142, so if you like New York to win, you are getting a much better number than the opener. Shop books to find the lowest price available.
On the total, the posted Under 6.5 at +104 is a better price than our -110 target, so grab plus money if it is still available at your sportsbook. Avoid the Under if the total drops to 6. Because our projected 3-2 result cashes the Yankees moneyline, the Orioles run line and the Under, bettors who prefer one position can simply take Orioles +1.5 as the safest angle in a game projected to be decided by one run. Keep your stakes disciplined given the uncertainty around the New York starter.
For more data-driven tools to help you bet Orioles vs Yankees and the rest of the MLB slate, explore our guide to AI picks. You can also compare platforms through our Dimers review and our Oddible review to find the tools that best fit your betting approach.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES
