Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees MLB Postseason AL Wild Card Series 2 Game 1 Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday September 29 2026
Few rivalries carry more weight in October than this one, and the betting board reflects a game built on pitching. Our Red Sox vs Yankees prediction centers on a Game 1 that has all the makings of a low-scoring duel when the 2026 American League Wild Card Series opens on September 29 at 8:00 PM ET at Yankee Stadium. New York is listed as a -145 moneyline favorite, Boston sits at +120, the Yankees are -1.5 (+156) on the run line, and the total is a tight 6.5. Cam Schlittler takes the ball for New York after a dominant season, while Boston hands the opener to 23-year-old rookie left-hander Payton Tolle. The Yankees hold the pitching and power edges, but a short total and a live underdog price create real angles for sharp bettors. Here is our full breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and injuries before we lock in our best bets. For more daily handicapping, check out our MLB picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (+100)
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 3, Red Sox 2
- Game Info: September 29, 8:00 PM ET, Yankee Stadium
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | +120 | +1.5 (-190) | Over 6.5 (+100) |
| New York Yankees | -145 | -1.5 (+156) | Under 6.5 (-120) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Boston | NY Yankees | Public (Handle %, Bets %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/28 | +120 | -145 | BOS 74%, BOS 62% |
| 09/28 | +114 | -137 | BOS 69%, BOS 63% |
| 09/28 | +118 | -142 | BOS 67%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +114 | -137 | BOS 66%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +118 | -142 | BOS 66%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +121 | -146 | BOS 66%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +122 | -147 | BOS 66%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +129 | -155 | BOS 65%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +129 | -156 | BOS 66%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +129 | -157 | BOS 64%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +129 | -156 | BOS 64%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +129 | -155 | BOS 64%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +129 | -156 | BOS 64%, BOS 64% |
| 09/28 | +128 | -155 | BOS 64%, BOS 59% |
| 09/28 | +127 | -154 | BOS 68%, BOS 61% |
This is one of the more telling moneyline moves on the Wild Card board. The Yankees opened around -154 and stretched as high as -157, but the market then moved hard toward the underdog. Boston shortened from +129 all the way to +114 before settling at +120, while New York dropped from -157 to as low as -137 before ticking back to -145. The money supports that move. Boston has held the majority of both bets and handle throughout, and its share of the handle climbed to 74% on the latest update. When a road underdog attracts that much support and the number moves nine or more cents in its direction, it is a signal that the market respects the Red Sox far more than the opening price suggested.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public (Handle %, Bets %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/29 | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 | UN 61%, OV 52% |
| 09/29 | 6 -119 | 6 -101 | UN 59%, OV 52% |
| 09/29 | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 | UN 59%, OV 52% |
| 09/28 | 6 -120 | 6 +100 | UN 61%, OV 50% |
| 09/28 | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 | UN 61%, OV 50% |
| 09/28 | 6 -120 | 6 +100 | UN 61%, OV 50% |
| 09/28 | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 | UN 92%, UN 54% |
| 09/28 | 6 -120 | 6 +100 | UN 91%, OV 50% |
| 09/28 | 6.5 -103 | 6.5 -117 | UN 96%, UN 67% |
| 09/28 | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -115 | UN 96%, UN 67% |
| 09/28 | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -117 | UN 96%, UN 67% |
| 09/28 | 6.5 -103 | 6.5 -117 | UN 96%, UN 67% |
| 09/28 | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -114 | UN 96%, UN 67% |
The total opened at 6.5 with the under juiced between -114 and -117, and the early money was almost entirely one-sided, with the under drawing 96% of the handle and 67% of bets. That pressure knocked the number down to 6. Since then, the total has bounced back and forth between 6 and 6.5, with the under priced at -120 at 6.5 and near even money at 6. The bet count has since leveled out to a near 50/50 split, but the under still holds the majority of the handle at 59% to 61%. Bettors are clearly split between two numbers, and the key for anyone playing the under is securing the 6.5 rather than settling for 6.
Red Sox vs Yankees Key Matchups and Game Preview
Cam Schlittler Gives the Yankees the Mound Edge
Cam Schlittler is the biggest reason New York owns the pitching advantage in Game 1. The right-hander went 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and 239 strikeouts across 193.2 innings. That combination of volume and dominance is rare. A sub-2.00 ERA over nearly 200 innings means he was not just effective in spurts, he was consistently elite all season. A 0.92 WHIP means baserunners are scarce, and 239 strikeouts means he can get himself out of trouble without relying on his defense.
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For bettors, Schlittler's profile is a strong foundation for the under. Boston will have to manufacture runs against a pitcher who rarely allows traffic, and in a playoff game with a 6.5 total, every scoreless inning from Schlittler pushes the game further toward the under.
Payton Tolle Takes the Ball for the Red Sox
Boston is trusting 23-year-old rookie left-hander Payton Tolle in a difficult postseason environment, and his numbers suggest that trust is warranted. Tolle finished the regular season 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts over 148.2 innings. He does not match Schlittler's dominance, but those are very solid numbers, and his strikeout ability is the key trait for this matchup. Against a Yankees lineup with serious power, missing bats is the best way to limit the damage.
The challenge is the setting. A rookie starting Game 1 of a Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium is a tall task. But strikeout pitchers tend to travel well, because they rely less on the ballpark and defense behind them. If Tolle can keep his strikeout rate intact, Boston should stay within range.
New York's Power Advantage
The Yankees hold a clear edge in the power department. New York hit 223 home runs with a .409 slugging percentage, compared with Boston's 163 home runs and .397 slugging mark. The 60-homer gap is significant, and in a low-scoring game, one swing can decide the outcome. That is the primary risk to any Boston position, because Tolle cannot afford many mistakes over the middle of the plate against this lineup.
Yankees Bats to Watch: Rice and Bellinger
Ben Rice supplied much of New York's damage, hitting 41 home runs with 97 RBI while batting .264. He is the most dangerous bat Tolle will face, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Judge. Cody Bellinger adds balance to the lineup, hitting .264 with a .338 on-base percentage and a .429 slugging percentage. Bellinger gets on base at a solid clip, which puts pressure on Tolle when Rice steps to the plate.
Boston's Offense Leans on Contact
Boston's lineup does not have the same home run volume, which means the Red Sox will need to string together hits to score against Schlittler. That is a difficult formula against a pitcher with a 0.92 WHIP, and it is a big reason we expect this game to stay low-scoring. Boston's path is to put the ball in play, work counts, and capitalize on the rare mistakes Schlittler makes.
Red Sox Need Contreras and Rafaela
Willson Contreras led the Boston offense, hitting .275 with 27 home runs and 81 RBI. He is the Red Sox's most complete run producer and the hitter most capable of changing the game with one swing. Ceddanne Rafaela paced the club with a .283 average, giving Boston a reliable contact bat who can set the table. If Rafaela reaches base in front of Contreras, Boston has its best chance to push across the runs it needs to keep this close.
BOS vs NYY Betting Trends
Yankees Edged the Season Series
- New York won the regular-season series 7-6.
- The Yankees swept the first three meetings of the season.
- Boston answered by winning four straight during June.
- New York closed August by scoring 25 runs over the final two games of a three-game set.
- The streaky nature of the series shows how quickly momentum can swing in this matchup.
Boston Money Has Moved the Moneyline
- The Red Sox shortened from +129 to as low as +114 before settling at +120.
- The Yankees dropped from a high of -157 to as low as -137 before moving to -145.
- Boston has held the majority of bets, between 59% and 64%, throughout the movement.
- Boston's share of the handle climbed to 74% on the latest update.
Red Sox-Yankees Total Bouncing Between 6 and 6.5
- The total opened at 6.5 with the under juiced as high as -117.
- The under drew 96% of the handle and 67% of bets before the drop to 6.
- The total has since flipped between 6 and 6.5 multiple times.
- The under still holds 59% to 61% of the handle, while bets have leveled near a 50/50 split.
BOS vs NYY Key Injuries and Things To Know
New York Injury Report
- Aaron Judge: Working back from a calf issue; Game 1 availability has been under scrutiny.
- Trent Grisham: Dealing with a hamstring problem.
- Giancarlo Stanton: Injured list.
Boston Injury Report
- Garrett Crochet: Listed on the injury report.
- Johan Oviedo: Listed on the injury report.
- Anthony Seigler: Listed on the injury report.
- Masataka Yoshida: Listed on the injury report.
- Zack Kelly: Listed on the injury report.
Things To Know Before Betting the Yankees
Aaron Judge's status is the single biggest variable in this game. His Game 1 availability has been under scrutiny as he works back from a calf issue, and with Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list and Trent Grisham dealing with a hamstring problem, New York's lineup depth is already being tested. If Judge is limited or unavailable, the Yankees lose a major piece of the power advantage that makes them the favorite, which strengthens the case for both Boston +1.5 and the under. On the Boston side, postseason roster decisions could change the availability picture for the players listed on the injury report, so bettors should check the final roster before first pitch.
Red Sox vs Yankees Side and Over/Under Picks
Red Sox Run Line Pick
New York deserves the edge in this game. Schlittler's elite run prevention, the Yankees' superior power, and home-field advantage all point toward the favorite. But a low-scoring pitching duel is exactly the type of game where the run line has the most value for the underdog. With a total sitting at 6.5, the most likely outcomes are tight games decided by one or two runs, and Tolle's strikeout ability should keep Boston within range. The market has also moved sharply toward the Red Sox, with their price shortening from +129 to +120. Taking Boston +1.5 covers us in an outright upset or in the one-run loss we project.
- Pick: Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
Under 6.5 Pick for Red Sox vs Yankees
Two strikeout pitchers, a playoff atmosphere, and a Yankees lineup dealing with injuries to key power bats all point toward runs being at a premium. Schlittler's 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP make him one of the hardest pitchers in the league to score against, and Tolle's 3.03 ERA and 171 strikeouts give Boston a starter capable of holding his own. The heavy early under money that pushed this number down from 6.5 to 6 reinforces that the market sees a low-scoring game. Securing the under at 6.5 gives us the extra half-run cushion that matters so much in a game projected to land in the five-run range.
- Pick: Under 6.5 (+100)
Red Sox vs Yankees Final Score Prediction
We expect Schlittler to control the Boston lineup for most of the night, limiting the Red Sox to scattered hits and one or two scoring opportunities. Tolle should match him well enough through the middle innings, using his strikeout stuff to keep New York's power in check. The Yankees eventually find just enough, likely through Rice or another power bat, to edge ahead, but Boston stays within a run to the final out.
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 3, Red Sox 2
- Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-190) cashes
- Total: Under 6.5 (+100) cashes with five combined runs
How to Wager On Boston vs New York
The number you get matters more than usual in this game. On the total, the market has flipped between 6 and 6.5 multiple times, so be patient and target the under at 6.5. A 5-run or 6-run final is very realistic in a game featuring Schlittler and Tolle, and the difference between 6 and 6.5 is the difference between a push or loss and a winning ticket. Shop across sportsbooks for the best under price at 6.5 before locking in.
On the side, the Red Sox +1.5 is the safer path in a game projected to be decided by one run. Bettors who want more upside could consider a small play on the Boston moneyline, though the value on that price has already shrunk from +129 to +120 as money poured in. Also keep a close eye on Aaron Judge's status before first pitch. If he is ruled out, the Boston and under positions get even stronger. Because the run line and under are correlated in a low-scoring game, pairing them is a logical approach for bettors who like this pitching duel.
For more data-driven ways to approach Wild Card matchups like this one, explore our guide to AI picks, read our Dimers review for model-based projections, and check out our Oddible review for another tool to sharpen your betting strategy.
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