Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday August 13 2026
The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays close out their four-game series Thursday, August 13, with first pitch at 3:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre, and this Red Sox vs Blue Jays matchup features a massive starting-pitching gap between left-hander Payton Tolle and veteran right-hander Max Scherzer, even as Toronto has dominated the series to this point. The number has held fairly steady in Boston's favor over the past 24 hours. For more angles like this one, check out our MLB predictions before finalizing your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side: Boston -1.5 (+108)
- Total: Over 8 (-105)
- Projected Final Score: Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 3
Odds and Line Movement
The market has drifted toward Boston since Tuesday afternoon, and tracking that movement gives context on where the money has landed heading into Thursday's series finale.
Current Odds
| Date | Time | Boston | Toronto | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12 | 09:37:35PM | -155 | +144 | BOS 83%, 76% |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Boston | Toronto | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12 | 09:37:35PM | -155 | +144 | BOS 83%, 76% |
| 08/12 | 09:37:35PM | -168 | +139 | BOS 84%, 76% |
| 08/12 | 09:37:35PM | -168 | +139 | BOS 86%, 82% |
| 08/12 | 08:17:26PM | -168 | +139 | BOS 89%, 82% |
| 08/12 | 08:17:26PM | -168 | +139 | BOS 91%, 82% |
| 08/12 | 08:05:44PM | -171 | +141 | BOS 88%, 82% |
| 08/12 | 06:09:01PM | -167 | +137 | BOS 93%, 82% |
| 08/12 | 03:49:22PM | -162 | +134 | TOR 93%, 18% |
| 08/12 | 03:18:35PM | -162 | +134 | BOS 84%, 82% |
| 08/12 | 03:13:36PM | -157 | +130 | BOS 84%, 82% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12 | 09:37:35PM | 8o-105 | 8u-115 | O57%, O58% |
| 08/12 | 08:17:26PM | 8o-103 | 8u-117 | O57%, O58% |
| 08/12 | 08:05:44PM | 8o-105 | 8u-114 | O57%, O58% |
| 08/12 | 06:09:01PM | 8o-107 | 8u-113 | O57%, O58% |
| 08/12 | 05:46:51PM | 8o-105 | 8u-115 | O57%, O58% |
| 08/12 | 03:49:22PM | 8o-110 | 8u-110 | O57%, O58% |
| 08/12 | 03:18:35PM | 8o-109 | 8u-111 | — |
| 08/12 | 03:13:36PM | 8.5o+104 | 8.5u-126 | — |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Key Matchups and Game Preview
Payton Tolle takes the mound for Boston carrying a 7-6 record, a 3.20 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 107 innings this season. He has allowed 89 hits while recording 124 strikeouts against just 29 walks, giving the Red Sox a substantial starting-pitching advantage on paper. Max Scherzer has endured a difficult, injury-interrupted season for Toronto, entering at 1-4 with a 7.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP across 36 innings, surrendering 40 hits and 11 home runs while striking out 27 and walking 15.
Boston also owns stronger season-long offensive numbers, batting .248 with a .320 OBP and .401 slugging percentage while scoring 531 runs, compared to Toronto's .243 average, .304 OBP, .377 slugging percentage and 482 runs. Willson Contreras has been a centerpiece of the Red Sox lineup, batting .280 with 24 home runs and 71 RBI, while Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .286 with a .324 OBP and .467 slugging percentage. Toronto's Kazuma Okamoto has supplied its best power production with 24 homers and 71 RBI, while Ernie Clement leads the club's listed batting-average category at .282.
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Injuries complicate the matchup for both clubs. Boston remains without Trevor Story and Roman Anthony, while Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is also sidelined, reducing lineup depth, and reliever Garrett Whitlock is day-to-day. Toronto is missing outfielder Jonatan Clase, while Spencer Arrighetti and Jameson Taillon are on the injured list, and reliever Joe Mantiply is unavailable.
Despite Boston's statistical advantages, Toronto has dominated this series, winning the first three games 2-1, 5-3 and 6-4 with the Red Sox losing five straight games. That recent form makes laying -155 less appealing, but the Tolle-Scherzer matchup is difficult to ignore heading into the finale.
BOS vs TOR Betting Trends
The moneyline peaked with Boston as high as -171 on Tuesday evening before settling back to the current -155 number, with Toronto's price improving from as low as +130 up to +144. Public backing has held firmly with Boston throughout, sitting around 83 percent of bets and 76 percent of money on the latest number. The total has moved from 8.5 down to 8 over the course of the series, with the current number showing the over drawing 57 percent of bets and 58 percent of money.
BOS vs TOR Key Injuries and Things to Know
- Trevor Story (BOS) - out
- Roman Anthony (BOS) - out
- Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS) - sidelined
- Garrett Whitlock (BOS) - day-to-day
- Jonatan Clase (TOR) - out
- Spencer Arrighetti (TOR) - injured list
- Jameson Taillon (TOR) - injured list
- Joe Mantiply (TOR) - unavailable
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side: Boston -1.5 (+108)
- Total: Over 8 (-105)
Tolle's strikeout ability paired with Scherzer's elevated WHIP and home-run issues give Boston a strong chance to create separation, making the -1.5 at plus money the preferred side over laying the straight moneyline. On the total, the over stands out primarily because Scherzer has struggled to limit damage, and both bullpens could be tested in this spot.
Blue Jays Final Score Prediction
Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 3
How to Wager on Red Sox vs Blue Jays
For Thursday's series finale between Boston and Toronto, the two most relevant markets are the run line, where Boston -1.5 offers value at +108 against a struggling Scherzer, and the total, where the over 8 at -105 lines up with Toronto's shaky rotation depth in this spot. Bettors looking to shop this line further or use additional tools before placing a wager can check out our AI picks hub, along with our Dimers review and Oddible review for more ways to build out a card around this matchup.
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