Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
Thursday night baseball at Citi Field delivers a game with genuine momentum on one side, as the Chicago Cubs visit the New York Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET looking to extend one of the hottest offensive runs of the season. Our latest MLB picks make the case for backing Chicago in what has already been a one-sided series, with the Cubs having outscored New York 29-14 across three consecutive wins. Chicago enters at 43-37 on a three-game winning streak while the Mets have dropped to 34-46 with five straight losses, and despite a tight moneyline that has the Cubs at -108, the edge here is clear enough to back them at near-even money.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Chicago Cubs -108 (moneyline)
- Total Pick: Over 8.5
- Projected Final Score: Cubs 6, Mets 4
Odds and Line Movement
The moneyline has been a back-and-forth market, with early tracking showing the Cubs drawing 100 percent of dollars and tickets at one point before shifting to a Mets-favored line closer to game day. As of Thursday morning, New York is a slight -112 favorite to Chicago's -108, reflecting a market that views this as essentially a coin flip on the moneyline. The total opened at 8 on Wednesday and has moved up to 8.5, driven by heavy over action in the overnight window. Below are the full line movement tables from tracked data.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | -108 | +1.5 (-154) | Over 8.5 (-111) |
| NY Mets | -112 | -1.5 (+154) | Under 8.5 (-108) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Chi. Cubs | NY Mets | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 08:16:02AM | -108 | -112 | NYM 59%, CHC 61% |
| 06/24 | 11:06:00PM | -105 | -114 | NYM 90%, CHC 71% |
| 06/24 | 11:05:40PM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 09:05:50PM | -105 | -114 | CHC 100%, CHC 100% |
| 06/24 | 08:05:00PM | -105 | -115 | - |
| 06/24 | 07:46:31PM | -102 | -118 | - |
| 06/24 | 05:12:06PM | -105 | -115 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 08:16:02AM | 8.5 -111 | 8.5 -108 | OV 71%, UN 52% |
| 06/25 | 01:10:20AM | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 | UN 63%, OV 50% |
| 06/24 | 11:56:40PM | 8.5 -108 | 8.5 -111 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/24 | 11:06:00PM | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 06/24 | 11:05:40PM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 09:05:50PM | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 | - |
| 06/24 | 06:25:07PM | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -118 | - |
| 06/24 | 06:23:48PM | 8.5 -103 | 8.5 -117 | - |
| 06/24 | 06:23:48PM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 06:23:27PM | 8 -114 | 8 -106 | - |
| 06/24 | 06:23:17PM | 8.5 -103 | 8.5 -117 | - |
| 06/24 | 06:23:17PM | - | - | - |
| 06/24 | 05:39:46PM | 8 -114 | 8 -106 | - |
| 06/24 | 05:12:06PM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 | - |
Cubs vs Mets Key Matchups and Game Preview
This series has been a showcase for Chicago's offensive depth, and even with some starting pitching uncertainty on the Cubs' side, the overall profile of this matchup still points toward the visiting team as the correct play.
Boyd's Return and What It Means
Matthew Boyd returns from the injured list Thursday for his first start since May 3, and that layoff is the central uncertainty in the Cubs' case. His season ERA sits at 6.00 across 24 innings, which looks alarming, but the underlying command numbers are clean — 31 strikeouts against just six walks in that span show a starter who throws strikes and misses bats. The high ERA is more likely a product of hard contact and bad luck on balls in play than a structural problem with his stuff. The real question is whether Boyd can make it through five innings efficiently after an extended absence, and whether his pitch count climbs early if the Mets make him work through deep counts. His return does stabilize Chicago's rotation heading into this start, and a starter with a 31-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio has the command tools to limit damage even if his velocity or sharpness is slightly below full strength.
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Peralta's Inconsistency Against Chicago
Freddy Peralta has been a middle-of-the-rotation starter all season, and his numbers reflect that status without sugarcoating. At 5-6 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 85.2 innings, Peralta has allowed 12 home runs and walked 34 batters while posting 83 strikeouts. That 34-walk total creates consistent base-runner traffic, and against a Chicago offense that has already put up 9, 10, and 10 runs in the three games of this series, putting runners on base is a dangerous habit. The Cubs hit .244 as a team with a .338 OBP — one of the better on-base rates in the National League — which means Peralta's walks are likely to compound into multi-run innings rather than isolated base runners that get stranded. His 12 home runs allowed in 85 innings is another concern given Chicago's power production, with Pete Crow-Armstrong slugging .520 on the season.
Cubs Offensive Momentum
Chicago's offense has been the dominant force in this series and across the broader recent stretch, and the team's season-long profile supports the notion that this is not a temporary hot streak. The Cubs hit .244 with 395 runs, 95 home runs, a .338 OBP and .406 slugging percentage — all figures that rank among the better offensive clubs in the National League. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the best all-around bat in the lineup, leading the club with 17 home runs while batting .285 with a .366 OBP and .520 slugging percentage. That combination of contact, on-base skill, and power makes him the most dangerous matchup Peralta will face Thursday. Dansby Swanson's 46 RBIs add depth to the middle of the order, and a lineup that just put up 9-10-10 in three consecutive games is operating with a level of confidence and timing that is difficult to stop with an inconsistent starter.
Mets Lineup Concerns
New York's offensive profile is the weaker side of this matchup, and the injury situation makes it worse. The Mets bat .231 as a team with 325 runs, 90 home runs, a .298 OBP and .376 slugging percentage — every meaningful category trails Chicago. Juan Soto remains the anchor of any New York offensive threat, posting a .299 average, .395 OBP and .570 slugging percentage with 17 home runs, but his day-to-day status is the most important variable to confirm before first pitch. If Soto is unavailable, the Mets lose their only genuine middle-of-the-order impact bat, and the lineup becomes significantly easier to navigate for Boyd. Bo Bichette's 45 RBIs add depth, but with Tyrone Taylor, Christian Arroyo, and Christian Scott already sidelined, the Mets do not have the lineup depth to absorb another absence.
Betting Trends - CHC and NYM
The moneyline movement in this game reflects a market that has been pulled in different directions through the tracking window. Chicago drew 100 percent of both dollars and tickets in the Wednesday evening update at 9:05 p.m., before New York came back to attract 90 percent of dollars by the 11:06 p.m. update. By Thursday morning, the split had narrowed to nearly even, with the Mets drawing 59 percent of dollars and the Cubs drawing 61 percent of tickets. That kind of churning market where both sides have drawn the majority of dollars at different points in the window typically reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a one-sided public lean, which makes the Cubs at -108 a legitimate value play rather than a fading opportunity.
The total movement strongly supports the over. The line opened at 8 Wednesday afternoon before moving to 8.5 as over money came in through the early evening. By 11:06 p.m., 100 percent of both dollars and tickets were on the over, and that remained the case through the 11:56 p.m. update. The line has since stabilized at 8.5 with the over carrying a slight -111 juice as of Thursday morning. The series scoring context reinforces this: three games totaling 29 Chicago runs and 14 New York runs have set a tone for this week at Citi Field, and with Peralta's 34-walk season and a Boyd start that may see a limited pitch count given his return from injury, there are meaningful pathways to this game going over 8.5.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - CHC and NYM
Juan Soto's day-to-day status is the single most important injury note in this game. As the Mets' best hitter by a significant margin, his absence would fundamentally change how the New York lineup functions against Boyd. If Soto is out, the Cubs' case becomes even stronger and the over projection depends more on Chicago's offensive production than a balanced scoring game. Confirm his status at first pitch before finalizing any wager. New York also has Tyrone Taylor, Christian Arroyo, and Christian Scott all sidelined, thinning both the lineup and pitching staff depth considerably.
Chicago's injury situation is more concentrated in the pitching staff than the lineup. Jaxon Wiggins, Ben Brown, Riley Martin, and Hunter Harvey are all unavailable, which reduces the Cubs' bullpen depth if Boyd is pulled early after a short outing in his first start back from the IL. That scenario — Boyd going three or four innings on a pitch count limit, followed by a patched-together bullpen bridging the late innings — is worth monitoring as the game progresses. However, Boyd's return itself is a net positive for Chicago's rotation regardless of his outing length, and his 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate gives the bullpen a reasonable chance of inheriting a manageable game situation.
The broader series context is impossible to ignore. Chicago has outscored New York 29-14 across three games, which is not a sample size that can be dismissed as randomness. When one team dominates a short series by that margin against a club that has now lost five straight, the momentum factor is real and it shows up in individual at-bat quality, pitcher confidence, and bullpen rhythm — none of which favor the Mets entering Thursday night.
Cubs vs Mets Side and Over/Under Picks
Side Pick: Chicago Cubs -108 (moneyline)
Getting the Cubs at -108 — essentially even money — after they have outscored the Mets 29-14 in this series is a legitimate value play. The moneyline is close because of Boyd's return from injury creating uncertainty, but a starter with a 31-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his 2026 sample is not a liability even if his velocity or stamina is slightly below full strength. Back Chicago to continue what has been a dominant series performance at a price that dramatically undervalues the offensive edge they hold.
Total Pick: Over 8.5
The series has averaged nearly 14 runs per game from Chicago alone. Peralta has allowed 12 home runs in 85 innings and walked 34 batters. Boyd may be pitch-count limited in his return, which means a longer look at New York's shorthanded bullpen in the late innings. The over drew 100 percent of dollars at multiple points through the tracking window, and the series context supports a game that produces runs at both ends. Take the over before the juice moves further toward -115 or beyond.
Final Score Prediction
Boyd navigates three to five innings efficiently, keeping the Mets in check through the early portion of the game before the Cubs' bullpen takes over. Peralta's walk rate creates traffic that Crow-Armstrong and the Chicago middle order capitalize on in the third through fifth innings. Soto's status at first pitch determines how much New York can push back, but even with a full lineup the Mets' five-game losing streak reflects a club that is struggling to generate timely offense. Chicago wins the series with a comfortable multi-run margin.
Projected Final Score: Chicago Cubs 6, New York Mets 4
How to Wager On Cubs vs Mets
Near-even moneylines in games with a clear directional edge are among the best wager structures in baseball, and Thursday's Cubs-Mets matchup is exactly that kind of spot. Getting Chicago at -108 with a three-game offensive dominance advantage, a superior team OBP, and an opposing starter with a 1.39 WHIP is the kind of setup that should be at the top of your Thursday slate. The temptation to take the run line at +154 is understandable given the series scores, but the moneyline is the correct play when Boyd's pitch-count uncertainty introduces the possibility of a closer finish than the series scorelines suggest.
For bettors who want a data layer beyond manual analysis, AI picks are a strong complement for games like this one, particularly when a starting pitcher is returning from injury and the projection relies heavily on team offensive metrics rather than individual pitcher performance. Models that process lineup OBP, team run-scoring rates, and recent series scoring patterns can surface probability estimates that validate or challenge what the manual handicap shows.
Two resources worth bookmarking for this kind of matchup are detailed in the Dimers review and the Oddible review. Dimers is particularly well-suited for total projections in games where one team has been on an extended scoring run and the starting pitcher matchup leans toward an over outcome, making it a useful second opinion on the 8.5 number tonight. Oddible's line comparison tools help identify the best available juice on the over and the Cubs moneyline across sportsbooks, which matters when you are betting a near-even line and want to shop for -105 instead of -108 on the Cubs side. Both platforms add process to what is already a straightforward edge on Thursday night.
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