Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday June 23 2026
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Tuesday night's makeup game at Citi Field pits a Cubs club with real NL Central aspirations against a Mets squad that has struggled to find its footing at 34-43 — and the pitching matchup makes this one of the more compelling underdog plays on the slate. Before locking in your card, browse the latest MLB predictions for every sharp angle across the full Tuesday schedule. Here is the complete breakdown ahead of the 7:10PM ET first pitch between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Best Bet: Chicago Cubs moneyline (+100)
- Total Pick: Over 8.5
- Projected Final Score: Cubs 6, Mets 4
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | +100 |
| New York Mets | -120 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Chi. Cubs | NY Mets | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/22 | 11:04:44PM | +100 | -120 | |
| 06/22 | 06:30:33PM | |||
| 06/22 | 05:37:46PM | +119 | -143 | |
| 06/22 | 05:25:04PM | +123 | -149 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 08:40:14AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | OV 98%, OV 70% |
| 06/23 | 08:20:40AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | OV 98%, OV 70% |
| 06/23 | 08:19:17AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | OV 98%, OV 63% |
| 06/23 | 08:15:52AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | OV 98%, OV 63% |
| 06/23 | 07:06:44AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | OV 98%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:35:29AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:35:19AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:34:29AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:33:28AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:33:19AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:32:19AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:31:49AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:30:49AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -118 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:30:20AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:30:09AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -118 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:28:19AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:28:10AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:17:58AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:17:28AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:16:48AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:16:19AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:15:58AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -118 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:14:38AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:12:19AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:09:38AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:08:48AM | 8½ -102 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:07:08AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:05:48AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:05:39AM | 8½ -101 | 8½ -119 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 04:05:28AM | 8 -119 | 8 -101 | UN 53%, OV 50% |
Cubs vs Mets Key Matchups and Game Preview
The pitching matchup in this game is as lopsided as you will find on the Tuesday board, and it points squarely in Chicago's favor. Kodai Senga has been one of the most exploitable starters in the NL this season, carrying a 0-5 record, a 9.00 ERA, and a 1.88 WHIP across just 24 innings. In that stretch he has allowed 28 hits, issued 17 walks, and surrendered seven home runs — a rate of nearly one home run every 3.5 innings. Against a Cubs lineup that has slugged 90 home runs and ranks ahead of New York in every major offensive category, those numbers are a genuine invitation to exploit.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of the more complete offensive players in the NL this season, posting a .286 average, a .363 OBP, and a .521 slugging percentage. Ian Happ brings 16 home runs to a lineup that also leans on Michael Busch's team-best 42 RBIs. Chicago bats .244 as a team with 366 runs scored, a .337 OBP, and a .401 slugging percentage — superior to New York's .232 average, 311 runs, .297 OBP, and .372 slugging. The Cubs are simply the better offensive team, and they are facing a starter who has been historically poor in 2026.
Edward Cabrera takes the ball for Chicago with a 4-4 record, a 5.21 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP across 67.1 innings. Those numbers are not inspiring — 69 hits, 25 walks, and 14 home runs allowed — but Cabrera's profile compares favorably to Senga's across every single metric. His ERA is nearly four full runs lower, his WHIP is almost half a point better, and his home run rate is less than half of Senga's. Against a Mets lineup that has been below average offensively all season, Cabrera is a legitimate game-management starter capable of holding New York to a manageable number of runs.
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Juan Soto is the one bat in the New York lineup who can change this game with a single swing. Soto leads the Mets with 17 home runs, a .301 average, a .398 OBP, and a .575 slugging percentage — numbers that put him in an entirely different tier from the rest of the roster. Bo Bichette has driven in 42 runs and provides lineup depth, but if Cabrera can navigate around Soto and keep the Mets from manufacturing runs via the bottom of the order, Chicago has the edge in this game. The Cubs have already won the season series three times against New York and enter this makeup game with both momentum and the superior starting pitcher on the mound.
Betting Trends - CHC and NYM
The moneyline movement on this game is one of the most dramatic line shifts on the Tuesday board and one of the clearest signals that sophisticated money has been active on Chicago. The opening number on 06/22 had the Cubs priced at +123 — a meaningful underdog. Within hours, that number compressed to +119, then made an extraordinary move all the way to +100 by 11:04PM, while the Mets simultaneously moved from -149 all the way down to -120. That is a 23-cent swing toward Chicago on the Mets' side and a 23-cent compression on the Cubs' side — in a short window, with no public tracking data visible to explain it by crowd activity alone.
That kind of rapid, sustained compression of the favorite's price without any corresponding public data to justify it is a hallmark of sharp, informed action arriving on the underdog. The market moved Chicago from +123 to +100 and has held there. Books are not moving this number back toward +110 or +115, which means the sharp positioning has been absorbed and the line is settling. Chicago at even money against a starter with a 9.00 ERA is a number that makes sense only if the market is pricing in something the casual public has not yet fully recognized.
On the total, the line has oscillated between 8 and 8½ across dozens of intervals over several hours. The early action through approximately 4:30AM had the under holding 53% of dollars, with the over at 50% of tickets — a split market. By Tuesday morning that had inverted sharply, with the over now drawing 98% of public dollars at the most recent tracked interval while the under held only -101 juice. The over carrying -119 at the final log and drawing 98% of dollars reflects genuine public conviction — and the underlying case for it is sound given both starters' vulnerabilities.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - CHC and NYM
Chicago's injury list is concentrated almost entirely in the bullpen, which is the primary risk factor for the Cubs side tonight. Matthew Boyd, Jaxon Wiggins, Riley Martin, Hunter Harvey, and Daniel Palencia are all unavailable, stripping significant depth from the relief corps. If Cabrera exits early — which his walk rate and home run numbers suggest is a real possibility — Chicago's manager will be working with a thinner group of arms to bridge innings and protect a lead. That bullpen vulnerability is real and should be factored into how aggressively you play the Cubs run line versus the moneyline.
New York's injury situation is more distributed across the roster. Francisco Lindor is on the injured list, removing one of the Mets' most important offensive contributors from the lineup. Tyrone Taylor and Ronny Mauricio are also sidelined, reducing position-player depth. On the pitching side, Ryan Lambert and Joe Jacques are unavailable from the bullpen. Losing Lindor in particular changes the complexity of the Mets' order — he is a middle-of-the-lineup presence whose absence makes an already below-average offense more reliant on Soto carrying a disproportionate load.
The context that matters most for this game: Chicago has won all three previous matchups against New York this season. That head-to-head record combined with Senga's catastrophic ERA and Lindor's absence creates a meaningful tilt toward the Cubs regardless of home-field advantage.
Cubs vs Mets Side and Over/Under Picks
- Best Bet — Cubs moneyline (+100): Getting even money on an opponent that owns a 3-0 season series advantage, carries the superior offense in every measurable category, and is facing a starter with a 9.00 ERA and 1.88 WHIP is one of the cleaner value spots on Tuesday's card. The line moved 23 cents in Chicago's favor without any visible public catalyst — that movement tells you where the informed money landed. The Cubs do not need run-line cushion here; the even-money payout on a team that should be favored by the matchup is the play.
- Total Pick — Over 8.5: Senga has allowed seven home runs in 24 innings. Cabrera has allowed 14 in 67.1. Both bullpens are shorthanded. The Cubs rank ahead of the Mets in every offensive category. Public money has swung to 98% on the over by Tuesday morning, and the underlying logic fully supports that consensus. A final score of 6-4 checks the over at 8.5 comfortably, and both lineups are capable of scoring in bunches against these two starters.
Final Score Prediction
Senga struggles to command the strike zone early, and the Cubs take advantage with a multi-run first half. Cabrera keeps New York's shorthanded lineup at bay long enough for Chicago to build a cushion, with Soto providing the Mets' best offensive moment via a solo home run. Chicago's bullpen — thin as it is — holds on for the road win in a game that goes over the total comfortably.
Cubs 6, Mets 4
How to Wager On Cubs vs Mets
Tuesday night's makeup game at Citi Field features a rare even-money underdog play backed by sharp line movement and an over with near-unanimous public support anchored by legitimate pitching vulnerabilities on both sides. Here is how to approach getting your wagers down efficiently before the 7:10PM ET first pitch.
The Cubs moneyline case is built on a combination of season-series history, a stark pitching mismatch, and a 23-cent line compression that signals professional action on Chicago. Before committing to the even-money play, running the matchup through a projection model is worth the extra step. AI picks can factor in Senga's current ERA and WHIP, the Cubs' offensive depth without relying solely on one or two bats, and New York's injury-depleted lineup to stress-test whether Chicago is genuinely undervalued or whether the market has already fully corrected.
For the over, the line has been oscillating between 8 and 8½ across dozens of intervals — which means finding the right number matters. The difference between betting over 8 and over 8½ is significant in a game projected to finish 6-4. The Dimers review walks through one of the best line-shopping tools available for identifying which books are still posting 8 versus those that have moved to 8½, so you can lock in the best available total before first pitch.
The total market data here — under holding 53% of early dollars before shifting to 98% over by morning — shows an active and changing market. Platforms that track real-time public and sharp money splits are particularly useful when a total has been as active as this one. The Oddible review covers a tool built specifically for monitoring these shifts, which can help you time your bet entry for the most favorable number when a line is bouncing between two totals as frequently as this one has been.
Confirm Senga's availability and any last-minute lineup changes for New York before placing your bets. His presence versus a potential replacement arm changes the over calculus meaningfully — though given his numbers this season, a replacement start may not be a much safer option for Mets bettors.
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