Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday June 24 2026
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Wednesday's doubleheader nightcap between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET is one of the most uniquely complex betting spots of the day, and if you have been building your card around our MLB picks, this game deserves a different analytical framework than a standard single-game start. Chicago has not announced a starter for Game 2, making bullpen management from the afternoon opener the most critical variable in the entire handicap. The Mets send Sean Manaea to the mound with a vulnerable overall profile, Chicago comes in off a 9-6 win on June 23, and the Cubs open as near-even money underdogs despite a clearly superior offensive lineup and better team pitching numbers. The doubleheader context, the injury picture, and the market pricing make this one of the more interesting underdog plays of the evening.
Quick Picks
- Side Pick: Chicago Cubs +100
- Total Pick: Over 8.5
- Projected Final Score: Cubs 5, Mets 4
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | +100 | -1.5 (+156) | Over 8.5 (-115) |
| New York Mets | -121 | +1.5 (-190) | Under 8.5 (-105) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Team | Open ML | Current ML | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs (41-37) | +100 | +100 | -1.5 (+156) | o8.5 (-115) |
| New York Mets (34-44) | u8.5 (-105) Open | -121 | +1.5 (-190) | u8.5 (-105) |
Line Movement - Total
| Total | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | u8.5 (-105) | o8.5 (-115) / u8.5 (-105) |
Cubs vs Mets Key Matchups and Game Preview
The doubleheader format changes every analytical assumption that would apply to a standard standalone game. Chicago has not announced a starter for Game 2, which means the Cubs will deploy some combination of a spot starter, an opener, or a multi-inning bulk reliever depending entirely on how Game 1 plays out and which arms are available after the afternoon contest. The makeup game for the June 22 rainout adds further complexity — both teams are playing two games in one day, and the decision-making around bullpen usage in the opener will cascade directly into the nightcap's pitching structure for Chicago. A high-scoring or extended Game 1 for the Cubs could significantly reduce the relief arms available in Game 2, which is the primary structural risk in backing Chicago.
Sean Manaea provides at least a known quantity for New York. Entering at 1-2 with a 4.64 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, 56 strikeouts, 18 walks, and six home runs allowed across 54.1 innings, Manaea is not a dominant starter but represents the more predictable pitching side of this matchup. His strikeout rate provides some margin for error, and the Mets' ability to deploy a defined starter gives them a structural advantage in game-planning that Chicago lacks when the opponent does not know who will take the mound. The walk rate of 18 in 54.1 innings and the 4.64 ERA indicate consistent scoring opportunities for the Cubs, and Chicago's lineup is well-equipped to capitalize on Manaea's traffic tendencies.
The offensive comparison between these clubs is not close. Chicago is batting .244 with 375 runs, 92 home runs, a .338 OBP, and a .403 slugging percentage. New York checks in at .231 average, 317 runs, 84 home runs, a .298 OBP, and a .372 slugging mark. The Cubs have scored 58 more runs and carry a 40-point OBP advantage — a gap that reflects the difference between an offense designed to sustain multi-inning pressure and one that is dependent on individual moments rather than lineup-wide production.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong has been Chicago's most complete listed offensive contributor, posting 17 home runs, 43 RBI, a .287 average, a .366 OBP, and a .529 slugging percentage — a combination that reflects elite production and makes him one of the more dangerous individual bats facing a pitcher of Manaea's current profile. Crow-Armstrong's ability to get on base and generate power makes him the primary threat Chicago needs to leverage against Manaea's tendency to allow baserunners in the first three innings of starts.
New York's offense depends significantly on Juan Soto, and his day-to-day status is the single most important variable for the Mets' competitive outlook in Game 2. Soto is batting .299 with 17 home runs, a .395 OBP, and a .570 slugging percentage — numbers that make him one of the most productive hitters in the National League and the player opposing managers are most reluctant to challenge. Without Soto, the Mets lose the one bat capable of singlehandedly changing a game's outcome against a bullpen-driven Chicago pitching approach. Bo Bichette provides secondary production with 44 RBI, but the lineup's ceiling without Soto drops substantially.
The loss of Francisco Lindor to the 10-day IL is a secondary but meaningful blow to the New York lineup and defensive alignment. Lindor's production, veteran leadership, and defensive value at shortstop represent a multi-dimensional loss that the Mets' current roster depth cannot fully replace. Combined with Soto's uncertain availability, New York could be fielding a significantly diminished lineup in the nightcap of a doubleheader against a Cubs team that has been one of the better offensive clubs in the NL Central all season.
Betting Trends - CHC and NYM
- Chicago opened at +100 on the moneyline and has held that exact price at the current reading, reflecting a market that has not seen sufficient one-directional action to move the Cubs' number in either direction since the line was first posted.
- New York is priced at -121 as the home favorite, a modest discount that reflects the Mets' known starter advantage and home-field edge without fully accounting for the lineup health concerns surrounding Soto's day-to-day status and Lindor's IL absence.
- The total opened with Under juice at -105 and has since moved the Over to -115 while holding the Under at -105, a juice movement toward the Over that confirms money has been landing on the high side despite the 8.5 number remaining unchanged.
- The Under holding at -105 while the Over has moved to -115 creates a juice inversion where the Under is meaningfully cheaper than the Over — a pricing structure that in a doubleheader context with uncertain pitching on one side makes the Over the consensus-money side and the Under the value-price entry point.
- Chicago's even-money moneyline in a game where the Cubs carry clearly superior offensive numbers and a 41-37 record against a 34-44 opponent represents genuine market value for bettors willing to accept the pitching uncertainty inherent in backing a team without an announced Game 2 starter.
- The Mets' -121 price reflects less than a standard home-field favorite premium, suggesting the market has factored in Chicago's offensive quality and New York's injury situation without fully pushing the number to the -130 to -140 range that a healthy Mets roster might command.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - CHC and NYM
- Juan Soto (NYM) - Day-to-Day: Soto's availability is the single most consequential variable in this game for the New York side. His .299 average, .395 OBP, and .570 slugging percentage make him the most dangerous offensive threat in the Mets' lineup and the player Chicago's pitching staff must plan around most carefully. If Soto is out or significantly limited, the Mets' offensive ceiling drops substantially against a Cubs pitching approach that — even in bullpen form — can limit a depleted lineup.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 10-Day Injured List: Lindor's absence is a multi-dimensional loss for New York, removing both offensive production and elite defensive alignment at shortstop. His unavailability compounds the lineup depth concerns created by Soto's day-to-day status and leaves the Mets dependent on Bo Bichette and supporting players to carry the offensive burden.
- Ryan Lambert (NYM) - Injured List: Lambert's absence reduces New York's bullpen depth, which is especially relevant in a doubleheader context where both teams may need to manage multiple relief arms across two games.
- Joe Jacques (NYM) - Injured List: Jacques' unavailability further thins the Mets' relief options and limits the late-game flexibility available to New York's manager if Manaea exits before the seventh inning in a close game.
- Tyrone Taylor (NYM) - Injured List: Taylor's absence reduces New York's outfield depth and bench options, limiting the pinch-hitting and defensive substitution choices available in a second game of a doubleheader where roster management decisions multiply.
- Matthew Boyd (CHC) - Injured List: Boyd's absence is one of five pitching-depth losses for Chicago that collectively affect the team's ability to manage a full doubleheader without over-relying on specific relievers across both games.
- Jaxson Wiggins (CHC) - Injured List: Wiggins' unavailability reduces the Cubs' starting pitching options for Game 2 and may influence which arm Chicago uses as their opener or spot starter in the nightcap.
- Riley Martin (CHC) - Injured List: Martin's absence adds to the Cubs' collective pitching depth reductions and compounds the roster management challenge of a doubleheader with five pitching injuries already on the books.
- Hunter Harvey (CHC) - Injured List: Harvey's unavailability reduces Chicago's high-leverage bullpen options, which matters most in the seventh through ninth innings of a close Game 2 where the Cubs need to protect a lead.
- Edward Cabrera (CHC) - Injured List: Cabrera's absence rounds out a meaningful group of five Chicago pitching injuries that collectively make the doubleheader pitching management challenge the most critical operational variable in this game's handicap.
- Doubleheader Context: The Game 2 starter uncertainty for Chicago is a direct function of the doubleheader format. How many innings Chicago's Game 1 pitcher works, which relievers are used in the opener, and the final score of the afternoon game will all influence which arms are available for the nightcap. Monitor Game 1 closely before finalizing any Game 2 bets.
Cubs vs Mets Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Chicago Cubs +100 — Getting even money on a team with clearly superior offensive numbers, a better OBP, more runs scored, and a 41-37 record against a 34-44 opponent missing two of its best players is the definition of underdog value. Manaea's 4.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP project consistent scoring opportunities for Chicago's lineup, and the Cubs' pitching — even in a bullpen game format — does not need to be elite to win against a Mets lineup potentially without Soto. Even money on a lineup advantage this pronounced is the correct play.
- Total Pick: Over 8.5 — Both teams are dealing with pitching depth reductions that make this a bullpen-heavy game from the third or fourth inning onward. Manaea's ERA projects Mets scoring opportunities for Chicago, and the unknown Cubs starter creates scoring opportunities for New York. The Over juice at -115 reflects sustained market confidence in the high side, and a doubleheader nightcap with two shorthanded pitching staffs is precisely the game environment where combined scoring exceeds expectations.
Final Score Prediction
Chicago Cubs 5, New York Mets 4. The Cubs get to Manaea early with Crow-Armstrong providing the decisive contribution, Chicago's bullpen combination holds New York to four runs in a game where Soto's limited availability reduces the Mets' threat level in the critical innings, and the combined scoring of nine runs clears the 8.5 total in a close game that reflects the competitive quality both clubs can produce even in a doubleheader setting.
How to Wager On Cubs vs Mets
The two plays in this game are Chicago moneyline at +100 and Over 8.5 at -115, and the even-money Cubs price is the primary entry point. You are backing a team with demonstrably superior offensive numbers and a better record at plus money in a game where the opposing starter has a 4.64 ERA and the home team is missing its two best players. The doubleheader format adds uncertainty to Chicago's pitching side, which is the legitimate risk this bet carries, and the Over at -115 is the companion play that accounts for that same pitching uncertainty by targeting combined scoring rather than needing the Cubs' arms to be dominant.
For bettors who want tools to identify moneyline value and Over opportunities in doubleheader settings throughout the season, our AI picks review page covers the leading platforms worth incorporating into your process. Our Dimers review and Oddible review are both useful for NL Central and NL East games where starter uncertainty, doubleheader bullpen management, and injury-depleted lineups create pricing inefficiencies that require more than surface-level handicapping.
The most important pre-game action items are confirming Juan Soto's status before the 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch and monitoring how Game 1 plays out in terms of Chicago's bullpen usage. If Soto is ruled out, the Cubs' moneyline becomes an even stronger play and the Over case gets additional support from a reduced Mets offensive ceiling. If Game 1 goes deep into the bullpen for Chicago, reassess the Cubs' pitching depth before locking in Game 2 bets. Shop the Chicago moneyline across multiple books before committing — finding +105 or better on an even-money consensus number is always worth the extra check in a spot with this level of upside.
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