Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 24 2026
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates open a three-game NL Central series Friday night at PNC Park, and this Cubs vs Pirates prediction breaks down the odds, matchups and betting value bettors need before first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. With Pittsburgh sitting as a home favorite and the total drawing plenty of action, bettors chasing more value across the slate can check our MLB predictions hub for additional plays tonight.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-123)
- Total Pick: Over 8 (-109)
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 5, Cubs 4
Odds and Line Movement
The moneyline has tightened slightly in Pittsburgh's favor since the market opened, moving from -123 on Wednesday afternoon out to -126 early Friday morning before settling back to -123, while Chicago has bounced between +102 and +104 over the same stretch. The total has been more volatile, opening at 8o-112/8u-108 on Wednesday afternoon, drifting as high as 8o-117/8u-103, and settling at 8o-109/8u-110 as of Friday morning.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | +102 | O 8 (-109) / U 8 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -123 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Chi. Cubs | Pittsburgh | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/24 | 02:29:51 AM | +102 | -123 | PIT 61%, 39% |
| 07/24 | 02:29:51 AM | +102 | -123 | PIT 66%, 40% |
| 07/24 | 01:40:51 AM | +104 | -126 | PIT 66%, 40% |
| 07/23 | 08:48:17 PM | +104 | -125 | PIT 65%, 42% |
| 07/23 | 04:00:25 PM | +104 | -125 | |
| 07/23 | 04:00:25 PM | +104 | -125 | |
| 07/23 | 03:29:15 PM | +102 | -123 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/24 | 02:29:51 AM | 8o-109 | 8u-110 | O95% |
| 07/23 | 08:48:17 PM | 8o-112 | 8u-108 | O95% |
| 07/23 | 04:00:25 PM | 8o-117 | 8u-103 | |
| 07/23 | 03:32:25 PM | 8o-114 | 8u-106 | |
| 07/23 | 03:29:15 PM | 8o-112 | 8u-108 |
Cubs vs Pirates Key Matchups and Game Preview
Chicago enters this series at 57-45, seven games behind Milwaukee in the division, while Pittsburgh is 53-50 and 11.5 games off the lead after dropping two of three against the Yankees. Despite the standings gap, the Pirates are priced as home favorites, with Pittsburgh listed at +168 on the -1.5 run line and Chicago at -205 with 1.5 runs.
Boyd vs Jones
Left-hander Matthew Boyd starts for the Cubs carrying a 6-1 record, 4.15 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 52 innings. Boyd has recorded 51 strikeouts against only 14 walks and allowed six home runs, but his underlying numbers indicate Pittsburgh should have opportunities if it can force him into the strike zone. Jared Jones counters for the Pirates with a 2-1 record, 4.05 ERA and an impressive 1.10 WHIP across 40 innings, having surrendered just 32 hits while striking out 48, giving Pittsburgh the starter with the better swing-and-miss profile and traffic prevention numbers.
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Pirates Offense
The offensive statistics are closely matched, although Pittsburgh holds slight advantages in batting average, runs, home runs and slugging percentage. The Pirates are hitting .261 with 543 runs, 132 homers and a .424 slugging percentage. Brandon Lowe has supplied 21 home runs and 65 RBIs, and Nick Gonzales is batting a team-best .313 with a .371 on-base percentage.
Cubs Offense
Chicago owns a .245 average with 520 runs, 128 homers and a .413 slugging mark. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the Cubs with 21 home runs and a .282 average, while Dansby Swanson has driven in 58 runs despite batting only .213.
Pittsburgh's Recent Series History
Pittsburgh leads the season series 4-3, although Chicago won the two most recent meetings by scores of 10-4 and 7-2, showing this matchup can swing in either direction depending on which offense gets rolling.
CHC and PIT Betting Trends
Pittsburgh's stronger overall offensive production combined with Jones' ability to miss bats has helped shape the current pricing, with the Pirates favored at a manageable home price despite trailing Chicago in the standings. The matchup between two capable lineups and similarly rated pitching staffs also points toward enough scoring to clear a relatively modest total, which is reflected in the total's steady movement toward the Over.
CHC and PIT Key Injuries and Things To Know
The Pirates could be without Jake Mangum, while Spencer Horwitz and Endy Rodriguez are working toward returns from the injured list, absences that reduce the lineup's depth and remove some quality on-base ability. Chicago's Matt Shaw remains sidelined, and bullpen injuries involving Ethan Roberts, Hoby Milner and Riley Martin could become important if Boyd cannot work deep into the game.
Cubs vs Pirates Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-123)
- Total Pick: Over 8 (-109)
Jones' ability to miss bats and Pittsburgh's stronger overall offensive production create value at a manageable home price, while the matchup between two capable lineups and similarly rated pitching staffs also points toward enough scoring to clear a relatively modest total.
Final Score Prediction
- Pirates 5, Cubs 4
How to Wager On Pirates vs Cubs
Bettors weighing Pittsburgh on the moneyline or leaning toward the Over in this series opener have several tools available to help sharpen the process before placing a wager. Our AI picks hub compiles model-driven projections for spots like this one, while a closer look at the Dimers review and the Oddible review can help bettors compare how different projection systems are pricing Pittsburgh's home-field edge against a Chicago team that has won the last two meetings. Given the movement on both the moneyline and total, shopping for the best number on Pittsburgh ML or Over 8 before first pitch is worth the extra effort in a series that has already produced high-scoring results between these two clubs.
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