Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Sunday June 28 2026
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The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates continue their series at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, June 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 PM ET with television coverage available on MLB.TV. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Reds a 39.0 percent chance to win, while the Pirates hold a 61.0 percent matchup predictor advantage. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.
Starting Pitchers Ready for Sunday's Matchup
Brady Singer is scheduled to start for Cincinnati and enters with a 3-6 record, a 4.81 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, 73.0 innings pitched, 85 hits allowed, 59 strikeouts, 25 walks, and 17 home runs allowed. Mitch Keller is expected to start for Pittsburgh with a 5-5 record, a 4.89 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, 88.1 innings pitched, 85 hits allowed, 69 strikeouts, 32 walks, and 9 home runs allowed. While the ERAs are very similar, Pittsburgh's starter carries the better WHIP, has worked more innings, and has allowed fewer home runs.
Cincinnati Tries to Build on Its Latest Win
The Reds come into Sunday's game with a 38-42 overall record and a 19-20 record on the road. Cincinnati recently defeated Pittsburgh, previously dropped three consecutive games to Milwaukee, and also earned a road victory over New York. Although the Reds have won two of their last five games, they are looking to build consistency after alternating between wins and losses during this stretch.
Cincinnati is batting .226 as a team with 337 runs, 607 hits, and 98 home runs. The Reds own a .309 on-base percentage and a .389 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has produced a 4.49 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .248. Cincinnati has also recorded 640 strikeouts with 358 walks and is 17-17 in day games.
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The biggest strength for Cincinnati is its power. The Reds have hit 98 home runs despite a lower team batting average. However, the overall offensive numbers trail Pittsburgh in several key categories, and the pitching staff has issued more walks while carrying the higher WHIP.
Pittsburgh Aims to Protect Home Field
Pittsburgh enters the matchup with a 41-41 overall record and a 22-21 home record. The Pirates recently lost to Cincinnati after winning back-to-back games over Seattle. Before that, they split games against Seattle and also earned a victory over Colorado. Pittsburgh has won three of its last five games despite dropping the series opener.
The Pirates are batting .257 with 413 runs, 729 hits, and 99 home runs. They have posted a .335 on-base percentage and a .413 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.10 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .235 batting average. Pittsburgh has also totaled 753 strikeouts with 297 walks and owns a 20-15 record in day games.
Pittsburgh's biggest advantage is its balanced production. The Pirates have scored more runs, collected more hits, hit more home runs, and own stronger pitching numbers than Cincinnati. They also hold the better matchup predictor percentage and have played well during day games.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Pittsburgh is my pick because the Pirates have the better overall record, stronger home record, higher matchup predictor percentage, and superior team statistics on both offense and pitching. Cincinnati earned the most recent victory in the series, but Pittsburgh has the stronger overall profile based on the numbers provided.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Total Pick
- Take the over if the total is set at 9.0.
I like the over because both starting pitchers enter with ERAs near 5.00, and both teams have shown the ability to hit for power with 98 and 99 home runs, respectively. Pittsburgh has also scored 413 runs this season, while Cincinnati has added 337, making this matchup capable of producing plenty of offense.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 6 – Cincinnati Reds 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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