Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions for Monday October 12, 2026
Game 1 of the American League Championship is taking off on Monday at 8:00 PM EST. The game is being played at Tropicana Field in Saint Petersburg, Florida. The game is being aired on TBS and truTV, but if you are looking to stream it you can find the game on HBO Max. The odds are coming in favoring the Tampa Bay Rays at a -168 on the moneyline and the Guardians are sitting at +138. The run line shows the Cleveland team sitting at a +1.5 at -179 and the Rays are sitting at a -1.5 and +147. The total is showing a little bit of a lower scoring total at 6.5 with the over at -122 and the under at +100. Be ready for all the MLB playoff action with our free MLB Picks.
Starting Pitchers
Neither the Guardians nor the Rays have announced who they are putting on the mound to start this game. However, one important thing to note is the Guardians are not likely to start Gavin Williams who started in Saturdays game. However, the Tampa Bay team has a couple of options as Drew Rasmussen has not started a game since October 3rd in the ALDS.
Cleveland Guardians Enter After Dramatic Comeback
Cleveland was on the ropes in the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox, but managed to rip off 3 straight wins to secure their spot to face the top seeded Rays. The Guardians on the year posted a 85-77 record overall, but played better on the road at 44-37 on the year compared to 41-40 at home. The post season record for Cleveland is sitting at 3-2. The last 3 games, which secured their spot in the ALCS were wins over Chicago by scores of 9-3, 9-5, and 2-0.
The post season seen the Guardians hitting play all over the place with 23 runs scored in 5 games or a total of 4.6 per game. The Cleveland team did get 34 hits in the games, but only ended up getting a .213 average and a .330 OBP and a .350 slugging. The power game for Cleveland was somewhat lacking with only 3 homers on the post season, but the extra base hitting was decent with 7 doubles and 3 triples. The Cleveland offense did get 3 steals and 27 walks, but the batters swung a lot with 37 strikeouts.
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The post season pitching for Cleveland has managed to throw a total of 45 innings, but have allowed 15 earned runs. The Guardians have managed to post a respectable 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Still, the Guardians allowed 29 hits and 2 homers. Still, the Cleveland pitching staff did decent with only 21 walks allowed while striking out 75 batters owning up to 15 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Tampa Bay Rays Return Home After Sweeping New York
The Rays are coming back home after picking up an easy series sweep over the New York Yankees. The Rays finished the season out with a 98-64 record overall, but posted a very impressive home record of 55-26, but the road record was impressive as well with a 43-38 record. Now, what else is impressive is the Rays have ended up getting some nice offensive showing and a good pitching side winning over the Yankees by a score of 1-0, 5-2, and 4-3.
The Rays have played in fewer post season games, but have ended up with a total of 10 runs scored or 3.33 per game. The hitting has ended up getting 20 hits and 3 homers, but have only managed to get 4 doubles. The Tampa Bay team has struggled at times with a .208 average and a .255 OBP and only a .344 slugging percentage. The Rays have managed to steal 3 bases in the post season, but have only picked up 5 walks and struck out 18 times.
On the pitching side Tampa Bay has thrown a total of 27 innings in the post season, but have only allowed 5 earned runs and have posted a 1.67 ERA with a 0.70 WHIP. Now, what else is nice for the Rays pitching is the fact that they have allowed only 12 hits on the season, but have allowed 2 homers. Still, the Rays have walked only 7 and have a 10.33 strikeouts per 9 innings while getting a total of 31 strikeouts.
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays -168
Tampa Bay has several important advantages heading into the opening game. The Rays finished with 98 regular-season victories, won 55 home games, and defeated Cleveland in five of six meetings. Their pitching held the Guardians to three runs or fewer in every regular-season matchup. Tampa Bay also swept the Yankees while allowing just five runs in three games, and its pitchers should benefit from several additional days of rest.
Cleveland deserves consideration after winning three consecutive elimination games, but the Guardians needed significant pitching contributions to finish their Division Series. Tampa Bay's superior offensive production and favorable pitching circumstances make the Rays my preliminary selection.
Total Prediction: Under 7 -122
Tampa Bay allowed just five runs across its three ALDS games, while Cleveland gave up 15 over five contests. The Rays also shut out the Guardians three times during the regular season and never permitted more than three runs in a meeting. Both teams possess pitching staffs capable of limiting scoring opportunities, and neither enters this matchup as a dominant home-run-hitting club.
The biggest uncertainty is Cleveland's starting pitcher. If the Guardians use an unconventional pitching arrangement or their bullpen shows signs of fatigue, Tampa Bay could create enough offense to threaten the total.
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