Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Tuesday May 12 2026
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The Detroit Tigers travel to face the New York Mets on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Detroit enters as a +123 underdog on the moneyline, while New York is listed at -149. The total for the game is set at 7.5 runs, with the Tigers +1.5 on the run line at -171 and the Mets -1.5 at +141. Looking for more betting insight can also check out free MLB picks for additional daily baseball analysis.
Starting Pitchers Take Center Stage at Citi Field
Detroit is expected to start Jack Flaherty, who enters with an 0-3 record, a 5.56 ERA, and a 1.65 WHIP across 34.0 innings. He has allowed 30 hits while striking out 42 batters, walking 26, and giving up five home runs. New York is scheduled to counter with Freddy Peralta, who comes into the matchup with a 2-3 record, a 3.12 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP over 43.1 innings. He has allowed 34 hits while recording 43 strikeouts, issuing 18 walks, and surrendering four home runs.
Detroit Attempts to Build Momentum on the Road
Detroit enters this matchup with a 19-22 overall record and a difficult 7-16 road mark. The Tigers recently won over Kansas City 6-3 after recently lost to Kansas City 5-1 and recently lost to Kansas City 4-3. Before that stretch, Detroit recently lost to Boston 4-0 and recently lost to Boston 10-3. The Tigers have dropped four of their last five games overall, although the recent win over Kansas City helped stop the slide temporarily.
Detroit is batting .242 as a team with 175 runs, 330 hits, and 37 home runs. The Tigers carry a .325 on-base percentage and a .391 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Detroit owns a 3.90 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, 142 walks, 342 strikeouts, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Tigers are also 11-3 in day games this season.
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One strength for Detroit entering this game is offensive balance. The Tigers have scored 175 runs and hit 37 home runs while maintaining a respectable .325 on-base percentage. However, the biggest concern comes from the road record, as Detroit has struggled away from home with only seven road victories entering this matchup.
New York Returns Home Looking for Consistency
New York enters Tuesday night with a 15-25 overall record and a 6-12 home record. The Mets recently lost to Arizona 5-1 and recently lost to Arizona 2-1 after recently won over Arizona 3-1 in 10 innings. Before that series, New York recently lost to Colorado 6-2 before recently won over Colorado 10-5. The Mets have split their last five games and continue searching for consistency offensively.
The Mets are batting .222 with 139 runs, 295 hits, and 31 home runs. New York has a .287 on-base percentage and a .341 slugging percentage. The pitching staff owns a 3.85 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP, 140 walks, 376 strikeouts, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Mets are also 6-13 in day games this season.
The key strength for New York is pitching. The Mets have the slightly better ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average entering this matchup while also recording more strikeouts than Detroit. Offensively, though, New York trails Detroit in runs scored, batting average, slugging percentage, and home runs, making run production the biggest challenge entering this game.
Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction
Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets Moneyline
New York gets the lean in this matchup because of the starting pitching edge and the stronger overall pitching profile. The Mets enter with the better ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average, while their listed starter carries a 3.12 ERA compared to Detroit’s 5.56 ERA from its projected starter. Detroit has struggled on the road with a 7-16 away record, and the Tigers have also dropped four of their last five games overall. Even though New York has offensive concerns, the pitching advantage gives the Mets the edge at home.
Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets Total Pick
- Pick: Under 7.5
I would take the under 7.5 because both teams have struggled offensively in recent games. Detroit scored only 11 total runs across its last four losses before the recent win over Kansas City, while New York scored just four total runs across its last three games against Arizona. The Mets also own a 3.85 team ERA, and Detroit enters with a 3.90 ERA. With both starting pitchers capable of generating strikeouts and recent trends showing lower scoring games, this matchup feels more likely to stay under the total.
Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4 – Detroit Tigers 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.
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