Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday June 29 2026
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Monday night's AL showdown brings the Detroit Tigers to Yankee Stadium for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, and the number on this game deserves a second look before you lock anything in. New York is installed as a sizable favorite despite riding a four-game losing streak, while Detroit sends one of the more underrated starters in the American League to the mound. This is the kind of spot where the public overreacts to a team's record and misses the real edge. For more context heading into the evening slate, browse the latest MLB picks before you finalize your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-175)
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-103)
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Tigers 3
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | +123 | Under 7.5 (-103) |
| New York Yankees | -149 | Over 7.5 (-117) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Detroit | NY Yankees | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/28 | 03:35:21PM | +113 | -136 | -- |
| 06/28 | 03:38:10PM | +119 | -143 | -- |
| 06/28 | 04:23:39PM | +119 | -143 | NYY 93%, 92% |
| 06/28 | 08:38:38PM | +123 | -148 | NYY 91%, 92% |
| 06/28 | 10:40:39PM | +123 | -148 | DET 86%, 21% |
| 06/28 | 10:40:39PM | +123 | -148 | DET 83%, 21% |
| 06/28 | 10:40:39PM | +124 | -149 | DET 83%, 21% |
| 06/29 | 07:32:27AM | +123 | -149 | DET 83%, 21% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/28 | 03:35:21PM | 8o+100 | 8u-120 | -- |
| 06/28 | 03:38:10PM | 8o-102 | 8u-118 | -- |
| 06/28 | 09:35:18PM | 7.5o-118 | 7.5u-102 | -- |
| 06/28 | 10:38:08PM | 7.5o-119 | 7.5u-101 | -- |
| 06/28 | 10:40:39PM | 7.5o-120 | 7.5u+100 | -- |
| 06/29 | 07:30:06AM | 7.5o-119 | 7.5u-101 | O90% |
| 06/29 | 07:32:27AM | 7.5o-120 | 7.5u-101 | O94% |
| 06/29 | 08:38:07AM | 7.5o-117 | 7.5u-103 | O87% |
Tigers vs Yankees Key Matchups and Game Preview
Tigers
Detroit arrives in the Bronx at 35-49 and has dropped two straight, which makes it easy to overlook what the Tigers actually have going for them in this specific game. Casey Mize is the story, and his numbers demand respect regardless of the team's overall record. Mize enters at 2-5, but that win-loss line is a poor reflection of his actual effectiveness this season. He carries a 2.95 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 58 innings, with 58 strikeouts, only 14 walks, and just four home runs allowed. Those are legitimate ace-caliber control and contact-suppression numbers, and they line up as a clear advantage over the starter he is opposing tonight.
Detroit's offense is not built to overwhelm anyone, but the lineup has contributors capable of making noise against a New York pitching staff that has been leaking runs during a four-game slide. Dillon Dingler has driven in 58 runs with 19 home runs, giving the Tigers a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat, and Riley Greene is one of the more complete offensive players in the Detroit lineup at .285 with a .377 OBP and .430 slugging percentage. Greene's ability to get on base consistently in front of Dingler creates a real run-scoring threat even against a deep New York bullpen. The Tigers are not expected to put up a big number tonight, but they do not need to. Mize is built to keep games close, and close games against expensive favorites are exactly where underdogs and run-line value live.
Yankees
New York enters this one at 48-35 and is still one of the better teams in the American League on paper, but the last ten days have exposed some real vulnerabilities. The Yankees have lost four straight after a difficult series against Boston, and that skid carries more weight when you factor in who is missing from the lineup. Aaron Judge is on the IL and Giancarlo Stanton is also sidelined, removing two of the most dangerous power bats in the American League from a lineup that is built around generating big offensive innings through slugging. Trent Grisham and Ryan McMahon are also dealing with injuries, further thinning the available lineup options.
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Ben Rice has stepped up as the primary offensive engine in the absence of those stars, producing 22 home runs, 53 RBIs, a .272 average, a .362 OBP, and a .566 slugging percentage. Rice has been exceptional, but he is also one player carrying a lineup that is missing multiple impact contributors. Ryan Weathers draws the start for New York and has been serviceable at 3-5 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP across 86.2 innings, but the 16 home runs allowed in that span are a meaningful concern. Detroit's lineup is not a power-first group, but Dingler and Greene are both capable of punishing elevated pitches, and Weathers has demonstrated a tendency to leave the ball in the zone at the wrong times. The Yankees are still the more talented team, but at -149 with an injury-thinned lineup and a four-game losing streak, the price tag is asking a lot.
Betting Trends - DET and NYY
- The moneyline opened with New York at -136 and Detroit at +113, before steadily moving to -149 and +123 respectively. The Yankees grew more expensive as public money poured in, but the line did not move further despite sustained one-sided action, a sign the books are comfortable with the current number.
- Early public percentages heavily favored New York at 91% to 93% of both tickets and dollars. However, by late evening on June 28, the pattern reversed sharply, with Detroit drawing 83% to 86% of tickets while receiving only 21% of the money. That extreme disconnect between ticket count and dollar weight is a clear signal that sharper, larger bets are staying on New York while recreational money has shifted to Detroit.
- The total opened at 8 with Over juice at plus-money before the number was dropped to 7.5 and the juice structure flipped. The Over opened at 7.5 as the juiced side but public Over action at 87% to 94% of tickets has pushed the line back toward even throughout the morning, with the Under now available near -103. The market absorbed heavy Over public money without moving the number up, suggesting the books are not being pushed off their position.
- New York leads the season series 2-1 but scored only nine total runs across four straight losses to Boston heading into tonight.
- Detroit has lost two consecutive games but enters with its most effective starter by ERA and WHIP among the two pitchers on the mound tonight.
- The Yankees are without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, two of their top three run producers, which directly impacts New York's ability to generate big offensive innings against a starter as stingy as Mize.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - DET and NYY
Detroit Tigers: Detroit is navigating a significant injury list across both the rotation and the everyday lineup. Justin Verlander is unavailable, removing a veteran arm from the pitching depth behind Mize. Parker Meadows and Gleyber Torres are also sidelined, limiting the lineup's depth and versatility. Josue Briceno and Bailey Horn round out a notable list of absences that tests the organization's roster depth. The practical impact tonight is most felt in the bullpen and bench options behind Mize, meaning if he exits early, Detroit's ability to hold a lead becomes more dependent on a thinner relief group.
New York Yankees: The injury situation in New York is the central storyline of this game from a betting perspective. Aaron Judge on the IL removes the most valuable offensive player in the American League, and Giancarlo Stanton's absence eliminates a second legitimate middle-of-the-order power threat. The combination of those two missing bats fundamentally changes how dangerous this lineup is against a starter like Mize who already suppresses hard contact at an elite level. Grisham and McMahon dealing with their own issues further thins the available options, leaving Ben Rice as the clear anchor and much of the surrounding lineup in a supporting role. At -149, you are paying a significant premium for a team that is four games into a losing streak and missing its two most dangerous hitters.
Pitching context: Mize's four home runs allowed in 58 innings is the single most important number in this matchup. Weathers has allowed 16 in 86.2 innings. Against a New York lineup that has lost two of its biggest power threats to injury, Mize's ability to keep the ball in the ballpark is even more valuable tonight than it would be in a normal game. The pitching edge is not subtle here.
Tigers vs Yankees Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-175) — The run line is the right way to attack this game rather than the moneyline, because Mize's profile screams close game rather than outright upset. Getting Detroit to simply stay within a run at -175 is a better risk-adjusted play than laying -149 on New York or taking the Tigers outright at +123. Mize is good enough to keep this game tight into the late innings, and that is all the run line needs.
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-103) — The total dropped from 8 to 7.5 for a reason. Mize has been one of the more effective run-prevention starters in the AL this season, and Weathers has been solid enough to keep Detroit off the board in bunches. Despite heavy public Over action at 87% to 94% of tickets, the number has not moved up off 7.5, indicating the books are holding firm. Getting the Under at -103 after the public has hammered the Over all morning is an excellent price on a game where the starting pitching matchup genuinely supports a lower-scoring outcome.
Final Score Prediction
Mize is efficient through six innings, New York scratches out enough runs with its depleted lineup to win a close one, but Detroit keeps it within a run and covers the run line with room to spare in the late innings.
Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Tigers 3
How to Wager On Tigers vs. Yankees
A game like Tigers-Yankees on Monday night at Yankee Stadium draws enormous public attention, which means the lines can get inflated on the popular side in a hurry. The best approach is to make sure you are shopping multiple sportsbooks for the best available number before committing, particularly on the run line where half a point of juice can add up significantly over the course of a season. For bettors who want a data layer beyond manual handicapping, checking out AI picks is a smart step, especially in a matchup like this one where the public percentage and the dollar-weighted action are telling two different stories.
Two platforms that are worth consulting specifically for a game with this kind of line movement complexity are Dimers and Oddible. The Dimers review covers how their model evaluates pitching-driven games and injury-adjusted projections, both of which are directly relevant to tonight's matchup given the absences on both rosters. If you want an alternative model to cross-reference, the Oddible review outlines how their system handles games where the public is heavily skewed but sharp indicators point in the opposite direction, which is exactly the dynamic playing out on the total in this game.
For tonight, the Tigers +1.5 run line and the Under 7.5 are the two plays worth building your card around. Confirm the run line price at -175 or better and make sure the Under is available at -103 to -105 before placing. If either number has moved significantly by first pitch, reassess before committing.
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