Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 31 2026
The Miami Marlins and New York Mets continue their four-game National League East series Friday at 7:10 PM ET, with New York entering as a -131 moneyline favorite after winning Thursday's opener 4-2. Miami is available at +109 on the moneyline and -193 with 1.5 runs, while the Mets are priced at +159 on the -1.5 run line. If you are searching for more value on today's slate, check out our full MLB predictions before locking in your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Marlins +109
- Total Pick: Over 8.5
- Final Score Prediction: Marlins 6, Mets 4
Odds and Line Movement
New York has held firm as the favorite throughout the week, with Miami's moneyline number holding mostly steady around +109 as gametime approaches. Here is the current market followed by the full line movement for both the moneyline and total.
Current Odds
| Market | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +109 | -131 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-193) | -1.5 (+159) |
| Total | 8.5 (Over -105 / Under -115) | |
Line Movement
| Date | Time | Miami | NY Mets | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/31 | 03:12:22AM | +109 | -131 | NYM 75%, 56% |
| 07/31 | 01:11:20AM | +109 | -131 | NYM 75%, 56% |
| 07/31 | 01:11:20AM | +109 | -131 | NYM 75%, 52% |
| 07/30 | 05:53:04PM | +109 | -131 | NYM 65%, 45% |
| 07/30 | 05:53:04PM | +109 | -131 | NYM 84%, 48% |
| 07/30 | 05:53:04PM | +109 | -131 | NYM 90%, 47% |
| 07/30 | 05:53:04PM | +109 | -131 | NYM 93% |
| 07/30 | 04:53:54PM | +109 | -131 | |
| 07/30 | 03:45:04PM | +109 | -131 | |
| 07/30 | 03:43:44PM | +108 | -131 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/30 | 03:43:44PM | 8Âœo-105 | 8Âœu-115 |
Marlins vs Mets Key Matchups and Game Preview
Miami's Control Artist
Miami will start Janson Junk, who brings a 4-6 record, 4.89 ERA and 1.36 WHIP into the matchup. Junk has allowed 80 hits and 11 home runs over 73.2 innings while recording 57 strikeouts against 20 walks, so his control has been respectable even though opponents have consistently produced contact.
Mets Starter's Traffic Problem
New York counters with Freddy Peralta, who is 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP through 113.2 innings. Peralta has collected 113 strikeouts, but his 120 hits and 48 walks allowed have created frequent traffic, making his current numbers far less dominant than his reputation might suggest.
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Marlins' Offensive Edge
Miami owns the stronger offensive profile, batting .251 with a .326 on-base percentage, .407 slugging percentage and 483 runs. Otto Lopez leads Miami with a .325 average and .359 OBP, while Liam Hicks has supplied 14 homers and a team-high 60 RBIs. Heriberto Hernandez leads the Marlins with 16 home runs.
New York's Power Without Soto
New York is hitting only .233 with a .305 OBP, .382 slugging percentage and 453 runs, although the Mets have produced more home runs, 129 to 114. Juan Soto has been New York's most dangerous hitter, batting .283 with 21 homers, 52 RBIs and a .539 slugging percentage, but he remains on the injured list and is not expected back until August 21. His absence significantly reduces the Mets' power and on-base potential.
Betting Trends: MIA and NYM
The Marlins had won three straight before Thursday's defeat and enter at 55-55, while the Mets are 47-63 despite winning four of their last five. Public backing on New York has climbed steadily throughout the week, reaching as high as 93% on the moneyline even as Miami's number has held firm at +109.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: MIA and NYM
New York is also without Mark Vientos, Clay Holmes and multiple relievers, while Miami has Owen Caissie on the injured list and Leo Jimenez listed as day-to-day. Soto's extended absence remains the most significant injury development for either club entering this series.
Marlins vs Mets Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+109)
- Total Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
Peralta's high WHIP and Miami's stronger lineup make the underdog appealing, especially with Soto unavailable.
Final Score Prediction
- Final Score: Marlins 6, Mets 4
How to Wager On Marlins vs Mets
Bettors looking to get down on Marlins vs Mets have several tools available to help shape their picks. Our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup, while the Dimers review and Oddible review offer additional angles on the run line, total and moneyline markets for this NL East series matchup.
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