Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Tuesday October 27, 2026
I was willing to give Tampa Bay a pass for losing the first two games in Milwaukee. Both were decided by one run, and the Rays had their chances. But Monday night? That was a beating. The Brewers went into Tropicana Field, scored eight runs in the fifth inning and won 10-1. Now they're one win from a World Series title. I'm having a hard time talking myself into Tampa Bay after watching that mess. The Rays won 98 games this year, so I know they're better than this. Trouble is, Milwaukee hasn't given them much room to show it.
Game 4 is Tuesday, October 27, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET on FOX. Milwaukee leads the World Series 3-0 and can finish it tonight. The stadium has a fixed roof, so weather won't be an issue. I'm looking at Milwaukee on the moneyline, preferably -110 or better, and Under 7 runs. Those are my target prices rather than confirmed live sportsbook lines.
Starting Pitchers
Neither club has officially named its Game 4 starter. Milwaukee might go with a bullpen game, which wouldn't bother me nearly as much as it might have a week ago. The Brewers got six shutout innings from Robert Gasser on Monday, and the game was out of reach early enough that they didn't have to burn through their top relief options. That's a pretty nice setup for a team trying to close out a series.
Dustin May has been mentioned as a possible starter for Milwaukee. He's given up five earned runs in eight postseason innings, so I wouldn't be expecting anything spectacular. Get through four innings, maybe five, and hand the ball over. That could be enough.
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Tampa Bay has been linked with Griffin Jax, who has allowed four earned runs in six postseason innings. He's struck out six but also walked three. Milwaukee has been making pitchers pay for those walks, and that's something Tampa Bay can't afford Tuesday.
I'd still wait for the pitching announcements. An under at seven runs is a different bet depending on who's starting and how each manager plans to use the bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers Have Tampa Bay Right Where They Want It
Milwaukee won 103 games during the regular season and has gone 10-1 in October. The Brewers beat San Diego in four games, swept Los Angeles and now have three wins against Tampa Bay. Monday's game was their best offensive showing of the series. They had 16 hits and scored ten runs without needing a home run. That's what makes this lineup such a pain to pitch against. The Brewers don't always knock the ball over the fence. They just keep hitting it where somebody isn't standing.
Milwaukee hit .259 during the regular season and finished with a .341 on-base percentage. That's a lot of runners for opposing pitchers to deal with. And once the Brewers get a couple aboard, they're pretty good at finding a way to bring them home. The pitching staff had a 3.51 ERA, and the bullpen has been doing its job throughout the playoffs. That's why I like Milwaukee in close games. The Brewers can get by with three runs when the pitching is sharp, and if the other team starts making mistakes, they'll put up ten.
The bullpen situation is what I'd be talking about before this game. Milwaukee didn't have to squeeze every last out from its relievers Monday. Gasser took care of six innings, and the offense made the rest easy. If Game 4 is close in the seventh, I'd rather have Milwaukee's relief options than Tampa Bay's. The Brewers have been better at getting those final outs, and that's what usually decides games like this. I don't expect another 10-1 win. But Milwaukee doesn't need one.
Tampa Bay Rays Need to Get Back to Playing Baseball
Tampa Bay went 98-64 during the regular season and won 55 games at home. The Rays were good enough to beat the Yankees and Cleveland on their way to the World Series. So I don't buy the idea that they're suddenly a bad team. But they've looked bad in this series. They lost 3-2 in Game 1, blew a four-run lead in Game 2 and then got hammered Monday. Tampa Bay had one hit through six innings in Game 3. One hit! That's not going to beat anybody, let alone a Milwaukee club that's been playing this well.
The Rays finished the regular season with a 3.69 team ERA, so the pitching is capable of keeping them in games. But the bullpen hasn't handled Milwaukee very well. Saturday's loss was especially painful. Tampa Bay scored four runs in the first inning and couldn't hold the lead. Then Monday, the fifth inning got away from them completely. The offense hasn't helped. Seven runs in three games isn't enough, especially when the other team is getting runners aboard and making you work for every out.
Tampa Bay needs a good start Tuesday. Not just from its pitcher, either. The Rays need to put some pressure on Milwaukee early instead of spending another night chasing the game. If they score first and get five or six strong innings, I could see them winning and forcing Game 5. But I don't like betting on a team just because it's facing elimination. The Rays have to do something different on the field, and right now I'm not seeing much evidence that they will.
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -110 or Better
Give me Milwaukee at -110 or better. The Brewers have won ten of eleven playoff games, and they just put up ten runs on Tampa Bay without using up their bullpen. That's a pretty good position to be in with a championship on the line. I know Tampa Bay is capable of winning one game. The Rays didn't win 98 games by luck. But Milwaukee has been better at the plate, better in the late innings and better at avoiding the mistakes that have cost Tampa Bay this series. The Rays had a four-run lead Saturday and lost. They got blown out Monday. I'm not going to assume Tuesday is suddenly the night everything goes right for them. If Milwaukee gets even a decent start, I like its chances of finishing the job.
Under 7 Runs
I'll take Under 7, although I'd want to see the confirmed starters before betting it. Milwaukee scored ten Monday, but eight of those came in one inning. That's not something you can count on happening again. Tampa Bay has scored seven runs in the entire series, and the Brewers should have plenty of relief pitching available. The Rays might scratch out a couple of runs, but I don't see them suddenly putting up six or seven against this staff. The danger is a short start from either pitcher. If both teams are into their bullpens by the fourth, the under gets a lot more uncomfortable. But I'm expecting a tighter game than Monday. Something like Milwaukee 4-2 would make sense.
Final Picks: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -110 or Better and Under 7 Runs
Preview updated October 27, 2026. Starting pitchers have not been officially confirmed. Betting prices are targets, and lineups, pitching plans and sportsbook odds may change before first pitch.
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