Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Wednesday October 7 2026
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, for Game 4 of the National League Division Series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET with coverage on FS1. Milwaukee finished the regular season 103-59 overall and 48-33 on the road, while San Diego went 91-71 overall and 51-30 at home. The Brewers lead the series 2-1 after San Diego kept its season alive with a 4-3 victory Tuesday night. Milwaukee won the first two games by scores of 3-2 and 4-3, meaning all three games have been decided by exactly one run. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the postseason.
Starting Pitchers
The probable starting pitchers were not listed for Game 4. That becomes especially important in a postseason matchup where Milwaukee can advance with a victory while San Diego is facing elimination for the second consecutive night.
The full-season numbers give Milwaukee a meaningful pitching advantage regardless of who ultimately gets the start. The Brewers finished with a 3.51 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while holding opponents to a .221 batting average. San Diego posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with a .242 opponent batting average. Milwaukee also finished with 1,544 strikeouts compared to 1,315 for the Padres.
Milwaukee Still Holds the Advantage
Milwaukee missed its first opportunity to close the series Tuesday, but a 4-3 loss doesn't erase what the Brewers accomplished in the first two games. They return for Game 4 holding a 2-1 series advantage, and every game has been decided by one run. Milwaukee has scored 10 runs in the series while San Diego has produced nine.
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The Brewers finished the regular season hitting .258 with 832 runs, 1,422 hits and 154 home runs. They posted a .341 on-base percentage and .403 slugging percentage. Milwaukee didn't rely heavily on home-run power, instead building an offense that consistently put runners on base and finished with 110 more runs than San Diego.
Milwaukee also owns the stronger pitching profile. The Brewers' 3.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .221 opponent batting average all comfortably surpassed San Diego's season numbers. Tuesday was Milwaukee's first loss in six games, and nothing about the first three games suggests the Brewers should suddenly be viewed as the weaker team after one narrow defeat.
San Diego Finally Breaks Through
San Diego entered Tuesday facing elimination after losing Games 1 and 2 by one run apiece. The Padres responded with their own one-run victory, beating Milwaukee 4-3 and ensuring the series would continue Wednesday. San Diego now gets another game at Petco Park, where it went an excellent 51-30 during the regular season.
The Padres hit .244 with 722 runs, 1,314 hits and 183 home runs. They finished with a .319 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. San Diego holds the power advantage over Milwaukee with 29 more regular-season home runs, but the Padres scored 110 fewer runs overall and finished well behind the Brewers in batting average and on-base percentage.
The biggest positive is how competitive San Diego has been throughout the series. The Padres have lost twice, but neither defeat came by more than one run. Tuesday finally gave them the result they needed, and their strong home record makes them dangerous again in Game 4. Still, San Diego remains one loss from elimination and has yet to create any real separation from Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
Milwaukee is my side pick for Game 4. San Diego deserves credit for surviving Tuesday, but I'm not moving away from a Brewers team that won 103 regular-season games and holds meaningful advantages in scoring, batting average, on-base percentage, ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. All three games have been decided by one run, so there isn't much separating these teams within the series itself. Milwaukee's larger body of work remains stronger, however, and the Brewers have another opportunity to finish the series Wednesday night.
Pick: Under
I'm sticking with the Under in Game 4. This series has produced totals of five, seven and seven runs, and none of the three games has reached eight. Milwaukee's pitching staff finished with a 3.51 ERA and .221 opponent batting average, while neither offense has scored more than four runs in any game during the series. The absence of a posted total prevents attaching a specific number to the recommendation, but the first three games have established a clear low-scoring pattern. As long as the eventual market isn't unusually low, the Under remains the direction I prefer.
Final Picks: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline and Under
This preview was completed on October 7, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.
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