Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Wednesday October 28, 2026
I bet Milwaukee fans were already thinking about the parade when Cooper Pratt hit that home run in the 12th inning Tuesday night. The Brewers had a 3-2 lead, needed three outs, and the World Series was theirs. Didn't happen. Tampa Bay came back with two runs, Ben Williamson knocked in the winner, and now everybody has to show up Wednesday and do it again. Baseball will do that to you.
Milwaukee still has a 3-1 series lead, so I'm not ready to start talking about some historic Tampa Bay comeback. The Brewers have beaten the Rays three times already. But I do wonder how much that loss bothers them. They were about as close to winning a championship as you can get without actually winning it.
Game 5 is Wednesday, October 28, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is 8:00 PM ET on FOX. The roof is fixed, so we can forget about the weather. Neither team had officially announced its starting pitcher when I checked, and I couldn't verify a current betting line. I'm leaning Milwaukee again, with Under 7.5 as my target total.
Starting Pitchers
I'd like Milwaukee's chances a lot more if Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball. He's the logical option, but the Brewers haven't confirmed it. He's got the fastball to make Tampa Bay uncomfortable, and that's exactly what I'd want after the Rays finally got a little confidence Tuesday. Let him go after hitters. Don't fool around with three-ball counts and give Tampa Bay free runners.
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The Rays have a tougher decision. Griffin Jax started Tuesday and gave them four innings. Nick Martinez, who started the opener, was used in relief. That's two guys Tampa Bay has already leaned on, and Wednesday isn't giving anybody much time to recover. Kevin Cash might have to piece this together with whatever arms are ready.
And that's why I'm not rushing to bet the total. You can have two teams that haven't hit much and still wind up with nine runs if the managers run out of pitchers they trust. I'd want to see the starters and get a better idea of who's available out of each bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers Have to Forget About Tuesday
Milwaukee won 103 games during the regular season. You don't do that by falling apart every time something goes wrong. The Brewers have been good all October, too. They won their first three World Series games, including that 10-1 beating Monday when Tampa Bay couldn't get anybody out during the fifth inning. Tuesday was their first loss in the series. A painful one, sure, but it's still only one loss.
I like how Milwaukee hits. The Brewers can put together a rally without waiting for somebody to launch a ball into the seats. Monday they had seven straight two-out hits. Seven. Tampa Bay just couldn't finish the inning. Then Tuesday, when neither offense could do much for a long stretch, Pratt finally broke through with the homer in the 12th. Milwaukee can win a slugfest or one of those miserable games where every run takes three hits and a walk. That's useful in October.
The thing I'd be asking about Wednesday is the bullpen. Milwaukee had the game won Tuesday until it didn't, and now Pat Murphy has to decide who he trusts with another late lead. That's not an easy call after 12 innings. Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe have been important pieces during this run, and Trevor Megill has handled the ninth. But a tired reliever isn't the same pitcher he was two nights ago. Milwaukee needs its starter to get some outs. Five good innings would make a big difference.
Tampa Bay Rays Finally Got One
Tampa Bay needed that win badly. Not just because the season would have been over with another loss. The Rays needed to prove they could actually beat Milwaukee. They lost the first two games by one run, got hammered Monday, and then spent most of Tuesday trying to stay alive. When Pratt homered in the 12th, I figured that was probably it. Instead, Jonny DeLuca helped get the tying run home and Williamson ended it. Good for them. That was a heck of a finish.
Still, Tampa Bay has scored eleven runs in four games. That's what keeps me from jumping on the Rays now. They've had opportunities, but Milwaukee has kept getting out of trouble. Chandler Simpson has been one of the guys making things happen, and Junior Caminero gives them a dangerous bat in the middle. I'd like to see the Rays put together a couple of innings where they don't need a mistake or a perfectly placed single to score. They haven't done much of that against Milwaukee.
And now there's the pitching. The Rays got seven scoreless relief innings Tuesday after Jax left. That's terrific work, but somebody had to throw all those pitches. Cash can't just send the same guys back out there and expect another seven shutout innings. Maybe the Rays get a strong start Wednesday and none of that matters. Maybe they have to go to the bullpen in the fourth. If it's the second one, I don't like their chances very much.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
Give me Milwaukee. I know the Brewers just blew a chance to win the World Series, and I know Tampa Bay is going to have a little extra life after that walk-off. But look at what we've actually seen. Milwaukee has won three of four, scored ten runs Monday, and was three outs away from winning Tuesday. Tampa Bay hasn't suddenly figured everything out because Williamson hit a single in the 12th. The Rays are still struggling to score. My worry is Milwaukee's bullpen after that long game, and I wouldn't lay a ridiculous price on the Brewers. But if the number is reasonable, I'm sticking with the club that's been better for most of this series. Milwaukee finishes the job.
Under 7.5 Runs — Target Total
I'll lean Under 7.5, but only if I like the pitching assignments when they're announced. The first two games finished 3-2 and 5-4, Monday got out of hand, and Tuesday took 12 innings to reach seven runs. Tampa Bay isn't hitting well enough for me to expect a big night, and Milwaukee doesn't need to score ten again to win. A 4-2 game would suit the Brewers just fine. What could ruin it? The bullpens. Both managers used a bunch of arms Tuesday, and somebody might get stuck leaving a struggling pitcher out there longer than he'd like. If the starters are capable of working into the fifth or sixth, I'll take the Under. If they're piecing together nine innings from the start, forget it. I'd rather pass than bet a number I don't like.
Final Picks: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline and Under 7.5 Runs (target total, pending pitching confirmation)
Preview written October 28, 2026. Starting pitchers and current betting odds were unconfirmed at the time of writing. Check official pitching assignments and bullpen availability before wagering.
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